Questions tagged [pr.probability]
Theory and applications of probability and stochastic processes: e.g. central limit theorems, large deviations, stochastic differential equations, models from statistical mechanics, queuing theory.
9,022 questions
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Class of covariance matrices invariant under permutations
I am reading a paper on covariance matrix estimation, and in this paper is introduced a class of covariance matrices:
\begin{equation}
U(q, c_0(p),M)=\{\Sigma: \sigma_{ii}\leq M,\quad \max_j\sum_{j=1}^...
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Large Deviation Principle for an adaptive sampling rule for Multi Armed Bandits
Consider the following adaptive strategy for sampling from a Multi Armed Bandit with $K$ arms:
Split the $T$ rounds into $N (\in \mathbb{N})$ disjoint intervals. Each interval is indexed by $i=1,2,\...
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Long-time conditioning for a Markov Chain
I am studying MERW and for some reasons, i would like to know if, if I have $(X_n)$ an irreducible Markov Chain, I can say that
$\mathbb{P}(X_1=x | X_0=a, X_n = b)$ goes to $\mathbb{P}(X_1=x | X_0=a)$ ...
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A question on Poisson approximation of number of secure rooks on a d-dimensional chessboard
This question was given in our first year undergraduate Probability I course.
In $d$ dimensions the lattice points $i = (i_1, i_2, \cdots, i_d)$ where $1\leq i_j\leq n$ may be identified with the “...
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Functional inequalities on neighbourhood graphs
Consider an open domain $\Omega \in \mathbb{R}^d$, say the unit disk in $\mathbb{R}^2$ with $N$ points sampled i.i.d. on it. One of the simplest possible (unnormalised) discrete Laplacian of a ...
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Formalizing the "pseudorandomness" of primes
Many conjectures about primes seem to revolve around the idea of "primes are random". So I thought about how this "randomness" may be formally defined, and came up with the ...
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159
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How to express the expectation and variance of a truncated binomial distribution without summation?
Given a binomial distribution with parameters $ n $ and $ p $, where $ n $ is an odd integer greater than or equal to 3, I am interested in the truncated binomial distribution where we truncate at $ k ...
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94
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Infinite sequence of PSD non-moments in two variables
Define a 2d sequence to be a mapping $a: \mathbb{N}^2 \to \mathbb{R}$ (where $\mathbb{N} = \{0, 1, \dots\}$). Here are two definitions of types of 2d sequences:
We say that a 2d sequence $a$ is a ...
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Is there a log-concave distribution not spherical symmetric s.t $ \langle X, \theta \rangle$ is almost normal for all directions $\theta$?
Klartag's results indicate that for a log-concave isotropic random vector, with high probability over $\theta$, $\langle X, \theta \rangle$ is close to a normal distribution.
It is known that for the ...
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Probability of random walk on confined lattice with reflective boundaries
Consider a simple random walk in one dimension with reflective boundaries at $n=1$ and $n=N$. We can express it via the master equation:
\begin{equation}
P(n,t) = \frac{1}{2}P(n-1,t-1) + \frac{1}{2}P(...
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Does a 2d random walk hit 0 for increasing distances AND time spans?
Question: For a simple symmetric random walk $(Z_t)_{t\geq 0}$ in $\mathbb{Z}^2$, does
$$\lim_{\beta\rightarrow 0}\mathbb{P}^{x_\beta}(Z_t=0\text{ for some }t\leq h(\beta)T)=0\quad (2.8)$$
where $|x_\...
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Random subsets of measure spaces
Related to generalizing reliability polynomials from graph theory to other spaces I ran into the following question.
To start, take a finite set $M$ and build a subset $X$ of $M$ at random by ...
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Asymptotics of a ratio on the unit sphere
Let $(a_n)_{n \geq 1}$ be a nonnegative, strictly decreasing sequence with $a_n \to 0$ as $n \to \infty$.
Consider the ratio (for $k \geq n$)
$$
R_{n, k} = \mathbb{E}_{u \sim \text{Unif}(\mathbb{S}^{k-...
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Distance between binomial and normal distributions
I want to compare binomial distribution $Bin(n,p)$ with a constant $p$ when $n\rightarrow \infty$, to a normal distribution with $\mu=np,\sigma^2=np(1-p)$.
How close are they with the discrete ...
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Techniques for bounding the operator norm of the expectation of random matrix?
Let $\mu$ be a distribution on the unit sphere in $\mathbb{R}^n$. Let $u \sim \mu$ and consider the random matrix
$$
A = I_n - uu^T.
$$
Question: What techniques are available to provide (reasonably ...
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73
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Tight tail bounds for sums of random variables
Let $X_1, X_2, \dots$ be iid uniformly on $[0,1]$. Define $Z_i^{(a)} = (X_i - a)^2$. Let $Y_n = \sum_{k=1}^n Z_k^{(1/k)}$. I am interested in matching tail bounds for $Y_n$ as $n \to \infty$. In ...
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What is the Fisher information matrix of the von Mises-Fisher distribution?
Assuming the von Mises-Fisher distribution as
$$f_{p}(\mathbf{x}; \boldsymbol{\mu}, \kappa) = C_{p}(\kappa) \exp \left( {\kappa \boldsymbol{\mu}^\mathsf{T} \mathbf{x} } \right),$$
where $\kappa \ge 0$,...
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Why is the $\alpha$-divergence unique in positive measure space $\mathcal{M}$?
In this article https://bsi-ni.brain.riken.jp/database/file/298/303.pdf (S. Amari 2009), it is said that a $f$-divergence (eq. 17) which can be written by a decomposable Bregman divergence (eq. 53) ...
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149
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Reference book for a probability course
In the next months I am planning to deliver a (more-or-less) advanced course in probability theory. My students will have had already a first encounter with discrete probability theory (discrete ...
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Arrangements of fixed $k$-polyplets in a $n\times n$ matrix
Recently, I asked a question about the number of arrangements of $k$ elements inside a $n\times n$ matrix with certain restrictions. The one I´m actually interested in for this question is in its 2. ...
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Random covering on rectangles
Let $\mathrm{Rect}$ denote the class of axis-parallel rectangles $r: \mathbb{R}^2 \to \{0,1\}$, assigning $1$ if the point is inside the rectangle and $0$ otherwise. Let $\mathcal{D}$ be a ...
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Counting matrix paths for (n,m>2) matrices
Given a $n\times m$ matrix with $k$ elements inside it, I need to calculate the number of arrangements of those $k$ elements that form at least 1 path from the top to bottom matrix row composed of the ...
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85
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When is a family of distributions "closed" with respect to minimal sufficient statistics?
As in the title, I am interested in understanding how to express the idea that a parametric family of distribution is "closed" with respect to minimal sufficient statistics. Before giving ...
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Conditional Expectation of Normal Distribution $E(q+t_1|r)$
I have difficulty deriving the follow conditional expectation:
there are N cluster of $q_{ni}+t_n$, each cluster has $k_n$ elements, $q_{ni}\sim N(q,\dfrac{1}{\zeta})$, $q\sim N(q_p,\dfrac{1}{\tau})$, ...
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Interpretation of Lévy process with signed Lévy measures
Suppose that I have a non-decreasing, pure jump Lévy process of finite variation $X$ with Lévy measure $\pi$. The Lévy measure is then supported on $(0,+\infty)$. Suppose that the Lévy measure is a ...
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Unimodality of distribution from Lévy symbol
Also posted in MSE.
Assume that one want to study a distribution $f$ on $\mathbb{R}$ for which the Lévy symboln, i.e.:
$$
\forall u\in\mathbb{R},\quad\psi(u) := \log \mathbb{E}\left[e^{iuX}\right]
$$
...
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Integral functional minimal value problems
\begin{align}
& F_n(\theta)=\int_0^T f_{n}(t,\theta(t)) \, dt \\[6pt]
& f_n(t,\xi)=\int_\Omega\mathcal{L}(X(t) + Z_n(t,\omega),Y(t),\xi (\omega)) + R_n(\xi(\omega)) Pd(\omega)
\end{align}
...
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101
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Simulation of Markov processes with exponential timestepping
Let $(Y_t)_{t\ge0}$ be a time-homogeneous Markov process with transition semigroup $(\kappa_t)_{t\ge0}$. Numerical simulation of $(Y_t)_{t\ge0}$ can be done in the following way:
Choose an initial ...
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Probability of being inside a convex n-dimensional polytop
I am currently conducting some post-grad research about wireless transmissions with uncertain transmission delays.
As part of the research, each individual transmission is modelled using a probability ...
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59
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Convergence of Liouville correlation functions
A key object in Liouville conformal field theory is the random Liouville measure $M$ defined heuristically as $M(d^2x) = :e^{2bX(x)}: d^2x$, where $X$ is a Gaussian free field and $:e^{2bX}:$ denotes ...
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Uniform concentration bound (function-valued random variable / continuous stochastic process)
I'm trying to consider a probability space $\Omega$ and
$f(x,\xi):\mathcal{X}\times\Omega\to\mathbb{R}$ (stochastic process over space? or function-valued random variable?), where $\mathcal{X}\subset\...
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RMT for modified Wishard matrix $Y'Y$ (where $i$th row of $Y$ is zero if $|x_i^\top u| \le \theta$; else it equals $x_i$)
Let $n$ and $d$ be positive integers tending to infinity such that $d/n \to \phi \in (0,\infty)$. Let $X$ be an $n \times d$ random matrix with iid rows $x_1,\ldots,x_n$ from $N(0, \Sigma)$, where $\...
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Stochastic Geometric Progression [closed]
Let $\mu_1, \mu_2, \ldots, \mu_n, \ldots \in \mathbb{R}$, let $\sigma_1, \sigma_2,
\ldots \in [0, \infty)$ be sequences of numbers.
Let $z_1, z_2, \ldots, z_n, \ldots$ be independent random variables ...
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Power expectation involving a Poisson process
Consider a Poisson process $N_t$ with intensity $\lambda>0$ and let $x$ be a real-valued number. In principle, from the properties of the Poisson distribution, we have:
\begin{align}
\mathbb{E}(x^{...
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Talagrand/Bousquet's inequality for U-processes
I have a U-process of the form
$$\left\lbrace Z_n(g) := \frac{1}{n^2} \sum_{1 \leq i,j \leq n} (g(S_i) - E[g(S_i)] )(g(S_j') - E[g(S_j')]) : g \in \mathcal{G} \right\rbrace,$$
where $S_1,\ldots,S_n,...
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Inequalities on the distribution of the maximum of the normalized sum $\max_{k = 1,\dots,n} \frac{|S_k|}{\sqrt{k}}$
Let $\{X_i\}_{i\in\mathbb{N}}$ be i.i.d. random variables with $\mathbb{E}(X) = 0$,$\mathbb{E}(X^2) = \sigma^2$ and finite moments. Let $S_k = \sum_{i = 1}^{k} X_i$ and consider the normalized ...
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Stein's Lemma for conditional expectation?
Let $X=(X_1,\ldots,X_d)$ be a standard normal random vector in $\mathbb R^d$, let $m:\mathbb R^d \to \mathbb R$ be a function, and let $E=E_m$ denote the expectation operator conditioned on $m(X) > ...
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Sub-additiviy of the log-Sobolev constant without independence
If two random variables $X$ and $Y$ verify the log-Sobolev inequality, what can we say about the log-Sobolev constant of their sum $X+Y$?
If they are independent, we know that
$$
c_{LS}(X+Y) \leq c_{...
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87
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Parameter derivative of the confluent hypergeometric function
Let $X$ follow a normal distribution with mean $\mu$ and variance $\sigma^2$. Mathematica gives
$$
E[\log|1+X|]=\frac{1}{2}\biggl(-\gamma-\log 2+2\log\sigma-\frac{\partial}{\partial a}{}_1 F_1\biggl(0,...
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ODE satisfied by a special function
Posted on MSE
Context
I would like to estimate the distribution of the difference of two inverse gaussian variables. The convolution doesn't lead to any special functions according to Mathematica . ...
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Compatibility of 2-copulas
An $n$-copula is the joint distribution function of a distribution on $[0,1]^n$ with uniform marginals. A family of 2-copulas $(C_{i,j})_{i<j\leq n}$ is compatible if there exists an $n$-copula $\...
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Measurable Extension
Let $(\Omega, \mathcal{F})$ be a measurable space and $X$ some metric space (probably Polish) with the Borel $\sigma$-algebra and a function $f: \Omega \times X \to \mathbb{R}$. Usually, functions ...
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Does the definition of mixing time work for general non-Markovian processes?
A definition of the mixing time for Markov chains is given by
\begin{equation}
\tau_{\text{mix}}\equiv\inf{\{t>0: \sup_i\left\vert \frac{\boldsymbol{p}(t|p_j(0)=\delta_{ij})}{\boldsymbol{\pi}}-\...
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66
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Random elliptical potential lemma
Elliptical Potential Lemma: Let $V_0 \in \mathbb{R}^{d \times d}$ be positive definite and $a_1,a_2,...,a_n \in \mathbb{R}^{d}$ be a sequence of vectors with $||a_t ||_2 \leq L < \infty$ for all $t ...
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Can the optimal stopping problem be expressed in another form by strong Markov property?
$X_t$ is a strong Markov process in $(\Omega, \mathcal{F},\mathcal{F}_t,\mathbb{P})$. $\tau$ is a stopping time, $T>0, \mathbb{E}_x(\cdot)=\mathbb{E}(\cdot|X_0=x)$. By Markov property, $\mathop{\rm{...
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77
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Wasserstein space isomorphic to original space?
Is there a complete measurable metric space $(X,d)$ for which its $p$-Wasserstein space $W(X)$ is isometrically isomorphic to $(X,d)$ for some $p \in [1,\infty]$?
Note that there is a canonical non-...
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Reference on multifractal complex measures?
This is a cross-post of this physicsSE post; I am also posting it here since this question lies at the boundary of both physics and math.
I am learning about multifractal formalism recently. It seems ...
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74
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Finding a collection of random variables satisfying (exactly or numerically) a given set of moment identities
Let $X_p$ for $p\in \mathbb{Z}$ be a collection random variables that satisfy for all $k>0$, $p\in \mathbb{Z}$:
$$\sum_{p_1+\dots+p_k=p} \mathbb{E}[X_{p_1} \dots X_{p_k}]=\begin{cases}
0 &...
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92
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MDP Average Reward independent of Initial State
Consider a Markov Decision Process where the state space $S$ and the action space $A$ are continuous and compact.
In state $s$, if action $a$ is chosen and the next state becomes $s'$, the ...
- 115
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What is the direct role of exchangeability in ensuring coverage in conformal prediction?
I was wondering how exchangeability directly relates to the proof of the coverage guarantee in conformal prediction. In most papers I have seen, usually they say that by exchangeability the order of ...
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