Questions tagged [pr.probability]
Theory and applications of probability and stochastic processes: e.g. central limit theorems, large deviations, stochastic differential equations, models from statistical mechanics, queuing theory.
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Is there a noncommutative Gaussian?
In classical probability theory, the (multivariate) Gaussian is in some sense the "nicest quadratic" random variable, i.e. with second moment a specified positive-definite matrix. I do not ...
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what is the probability that a scissor became the champion?
Here is a question from one of my students:
suppose 8 players are in an elimination match. The players are marked with marked with either R (for rock), P (for paper) or S (for scissors). If two ...
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The Angel and Devil problem with a random angel
In the classic version of Conway's Angel and the Devil problem, an angel starts off at the origin of a 2-D lattice and is able to move up to distance $r$ to another lattice point. The devil is able ...
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Expected value as decision criterion in the context of rare events
I have often seen discussions of what actions to take in the context of rare events in terms of expected value. For example, if a lottery has a 1 in 100 million chance of winning, and delivers a ...
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Iterated Circumcircle
Take three noncollinear points (a,b,c), compute the center of their circumcircle x, and replace a random one of a,b,c with x. Repeat. It seems this process may converge to a point, assuming no ...
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How can I randomly draw an ensemble of unit vectors that sum to zero?
Inspired by this question, I would like to determine the probability that a random knot of 6 unit sticks is a trefoil. This naturally leads to the following question:
Is there a way to sample ...
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The probability for a sequence to have small partial sums
The question
Let $a_1,a_2,\dots,a_n$ be a sequence whose entries are +1 or -1. Let t be a parameter. My question is to give an estimate for the number of such sequences so that
$|a_1+a_2+\dots ...
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Does every compact metric space have a canonical probability measure?
Edit: Shortly after this post it was rightly pointed out by @AntonPetrunin that the measure $\mu$ may not be unique. @R W then showed how one can construct a metric space where the limiting measure is ...
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How rich is the richest person in a society satisfying the Pareto principle?
The Pareto Principle roughly states that in many societies, the top 20% of people hold over 80% of the wealth. Suppose we had a society that satisfied this principle in every stratum of society - how ...
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Enumeration and random selection
In Peter J. Cameron's book "Permutation Groups" I found the following quote
It is a slogan of modern enumeration theory that the ability to count a set is closely related to the ability to pick a ...
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Teaching stochastic calculus to students who know no measure theory (or PDE, or...)
I've got quite a challenge as my teaching assignment for the next Fall (not that I want to get rid of it, quite the contrary, but I still feel like asking for advice won't hurt :-)).
I'm to teach the ...
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Is there a statistical interpretation of Green's theorem, Stokes' theorem, or the divergence theorem?
This is cross-posted from math.stackexchange and stats.stackexchange. Probably there is no great answer to this question, but I thought I'd give it a shot here.
I'm teaching a class on integration ...
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A probability question related to extremal combinatorics
$k$ people play the following game: person $i$ independently picks a subset $S_i$ of $\{ 1,2,\ldots,n \}$ according to some distribution $p$ on the $2^n$ subsets; each person uses the same ...
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Constants in the Rosenthal inequality
Let $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ be independent with $\mathbf{E}[X_i] = 0$ and $\mathbf{E}[|X_i|^t] < \infty$ for some $t \ge 2$. Write $X = \sum_{i=1}^n X_i$. Then we have the family of "Rosenthal-type ...
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Do convex and decreasing functions preserve the semimartingale property?
Some time ago I spent a lot of effort trying to show that the semimartingale property is preserved by certain functions. Specifically, that a convex function of a semimartingale and decreasing ...
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Using Fisher Information to bound KL divergence
Is it possible to use Fisher Information at p to get a useful upper bound on KL(q,p)?
KL(q,p) is known as Kullback-Liebler divergence and is defined for discrete distributions over k outcomes as ...
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Roadmap to Ergodic Theory
I have recently been interested in going deeper into ergodic theory, beyond an introductory level of knowledge. Background wise, my training has mostly been in stochastic analysis, and I have a ...
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Fourier transform of $f_a(x)= a^{-2}\exp(-|x|^a)$, $a \in (0,2)$, is decreasing in $a$
Can one show that Fourier transform of
$$ f_a(x) = a^{-2} \exp(-|x|^a), \qquad a \in (0,2)$$
is decreasing in $a$?
I have a solution for $a \in (0,1]$ which cannot be used for $a\in (1,2)$.
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A functional inequality about log-concave functions
Let $f,g$ be smooth even log-concave functions on $\mathbb{R}^{n}$, i.e.,$f=e^{-F(x)}, g=e^{-G(x)}$ for some even convex functions $F(x),G(x)$. Is it true that:
$$
\int_{\mathbb{R}^{n}} \langle \...
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Probabilistic method used to prove existence theorems
I am aiming for a "big list" of theorems using probability techniques to prove existence of some objects. And in each case, there is an interesting question -- can we find an explicit example? Was the ...
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Measure induced on [0, 1] by infinite tosses of biased coin
It is well-known that one can get the Lebesgue measure on [0, 1] by tossing a fair coin infinitely (countably) many times and mapping each sequence to a real number written out in binary.
I was ...
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What is the probability that two random walkers will meet?
It is a well known result that a random walk on a 2D lattice will return to the origin see Polya's random walk constant. Based on this, it is not a big stretch to conclude that the random walk will ...
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Particles chasing one another around a circle
Two particles start out at random positions on a unit-circumference circle.
Each has a random speed (distance per unit time) moving counterclockwise uniformly distributed
within $[0,1]$. How long ...
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How can I generate random permutations of [n] with k cycles, where k is much larger than log n?
I've been thinking a lot lately about random permutations. It's well-known that the mean and variance of the number of cycles of a permutation chosen uniformly at random from Sn are both ...
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A geometric interpretation of independence?
Consider the set of random variables with zero mean and finite second moment. This is a vector space, and $\langle X, Y \rangle = E[XY]$ is a valid inner product on it. Uncorrelated random variables ...
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Generalization of a mind-boggling box-opening puzzle
Motivation. Suppose we are given $6$ boxes, arranged in the following manner:
$$\left[\begin{array}{ccc} 1 & 2 & 3 \\ 4 & 5 & 6 \end{array}\right]$$
Two of these boxes contain a ...
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Anti-concentration of Bernoulli sums
Let $a_1,\ldots,a_n$ be real numbers such that $\sum_i a_i^2 =1$ and let $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ be independent, uniformly distributed, Bernoulli $\pm 1$ random variables. Define the random variable
$S:= \...
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Is the circle in the square best at avoiding random lines?
This question is inspired by a recent one (and takes a great deal from the answers there). Given a convex subset $\Delta$ of the unit square, let $p(\Delta)$ be the probability that a random line does ...
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Which distributions can you sample if you can sample a Gaussian?
Explicitly: You have a computer that is able to pick a real number at random according to the normal distribution: $\mathcal{N}(0,1) = \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-x^2/2}$. Which distributions can this ...
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Current state of the Komlos conjecture on vector balancing
Komlos Conjecture: the exists an absolute constant $K>0$ such that for all $d$ and any collection of vectors $v_1,\ldots, v_n\in \mathbb{R}^d$ with $\left\lVert v_i\right\rVert _2=1$ we can find ...
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Time-inhomogeneous Markov chains
I'm trying to find out what is known about time-inhomogeneous ergodic Markov Chains where the transition matrix can vary over time. All textbooks and lecture notes I could find initially introduce ...
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Repeated random two-steps in $\mathbb{R}^3$: unbounded?
I created a random isometry $T$ of $\mathbb{R}^3$ by generating
a random orthogonal matrix $M$,
uniformly distributed among all such,
and a random displacement $v$, whose coordinates
are drawn from a ...
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Are gaussians with different moments far in total variation distance?
If two Gaussians disagree on one moment, it seems like this should imply that they have a large variation distance--equivalently, if two Gaussians are close in variation distance it's hard for their ...
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Higher or lower?
Consider the following game - I draw a number from $[0, 1]$ uniformly, and show it to you. I tell you I am going to draw another $1000$ numbers in sequence, independently and uniformly. Your task is ...
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Estimates for Symmetric Functions
Let $z_1,z_2,\ldots,z_n$ be i.i.d. random variables in the unit circle. Consider the polynomial
$$
p(z)=\prod_{i=1}^{n}{(t-z_i)}=t^n+a_{1}t^{n-1}+\cdots+a_{n-2}t^2+a_{n-1}t+a_n
$$
where the $a_i$ are ...
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Fictitious density of paths of diffusion processes outside the Cameron--Martin space
Let $X_t$ be an $n$-dimensional diffusion process satisfying the following Itō SDE over $[0,1]$:
$$dX_t = f(X_t)\,dt + dW_t,$$
where $W_t$ is an $n$-dimensional Wiener process and $f$ is of class $C^...
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Horst Knörrer's Permutation Cancellation Problem
The Problem:
The following question of Horst Knörrer is a sort of toy problem coming from mathematical physics.
Let $x_1, x_2, \dots, x_n$ and $y_1,y_2,\dots, y_n$ be two sets of real numbers.
We ...
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Graph with Poisson Clock at each Vertex
Let $G$ be a connected, undirected graph, with countably infinite set of vertices and countably infinite set of edges. Assume that the degree of each vertex is finite, and moreover, the degrees of all ...
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Zinn's "doubling" conjecture on weighted sums of independent Rademacher random variables
Let $a_1,\dots,a_n$ be real numbers such that $a_1^2+\dots+a_n^2=1$. Let $\eta_1,\dots,\eta_n$ be independent Rademacher random variables (r.v.'s), so that $P(\eta_i=\pm1)=\frac12$ for all $i$. Let $S:...
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Precise estimate for probability an $n$-point set has diameter smaller than $1$
This question was inspired by an earlier question that I answered but would like a more precise bound for.
Consider random points $x_1, \dots, x_n$ in the unit ball in $\mathbb R^d$, uniformly and ...
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What does a product of many Gaussian matrices converge to?
Let $A$ be a product of $n$ $d\times d$ matrices with IID standard Gaussian entries and consider the value of $g(x)=x f(x)$ where $f(x)$ is the density of squared singular values of $A/\|A\|$.
Is ...
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support of the coupling between two probability measures
Given two Borel probability measures $\mu$ and $\nu$ on $\mathbb{R}$, let $\Pi(\mu, \nu)$ denote all couplings between them, i.e., all Borel probability measures on $\mathbb{R}^2$ such that the ...
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On random Dirichlet distributions
Fix a dimension $d\ge2$.
Let $Q_d$ denote the positive quadrant of $\mathbb{R}^d$, that is, $Q_d$ is the set of points $\mathbf{x}=(x_i)_i$ in $\mathbb{R}^d$ such that $x_i>0$ for every $i$.
For ...
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Why isn't likelihood a probability density function?
I've been trying to get my head around why a likelihood isn't a probability density function. My understanding says that for an event $X$ and a model parameter $m$:
$P(X\mid m)$ is a probability ...
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Number of invertible {0,1} real matrices?
This question is inspired from here, where it was asked what possible determinants an $n \times n$ matrix with entries in {0,1} can have over $\mathbb{R}$.
My question is: how many such matrices ...
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What is the expected value of an N-dim vector of uniform randoms that sum to 1 which have been sorted into descending order?
What is the expected value of an N-dimensional vector of uniformly distributed random numbers which sum to 1 and have been sorted in descending order?
Here is the algorithm for drawing a sample from ...
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Pennies on a carpet problem
I recently read the following "open problem" titled "Pennies on a carpet" in "An Introduction To Probability and Random Processes" by Baclawski and Rota (page viii of book, page 10 of following pdf),...
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What's the probability that k + n^2 is squarefree, for fixed k?
While playing around with this question (when is the sum of two squares squarefree?), from some experimental computations (and bolstered by the fact that the density of squarefree positive integers is ...
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How do we express measurable spaces using type theory?
A measurable space $(X,\mathcal X)$ consists of a set $X$ equipped with a $\sigma$-algebra of subsets $\mathcal X$. I would like to write computer programs involving measurable spaces, but to the best ...
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Big Picture: What is the connection of Malliavin calculus with differential geometry?
I know that Paul Malliavin was heavily influenced by ideas from differential geometry while developing his calculus on Wiener space. But what are the concrete analogies between both areas of ...
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