Questions tagged [pr.probability]
Theory and applications of probability and stochastic processes: e.g. central limit theorems, large deviations, stochastic differential equations, models from statistical mechanics, queuing theory.
9,021 questions
7
votes
0
answers
264
views
$\lim_{n \to \infty} E[V| W +\frac{1}{n}V ]$ where $W$ and $V$ are independent
Let $V$ and $W$ be independent random variables. Assume that $V$ is standard normal.
We are interested in the following limit
\begin{align}
\lim_{n \to \infty} E[V| W +\frac{1}{n}V ]
\end{align}
...
- 671
2
votes
0
answers
85
views
Can an SDE be made to follow the flow lines of a vector field?
Let $V: \mathbb R^n \to \mathbb R^n$ be a Lipschitz vector field. Consider a one dimensional Brownian motion $W$ and the SDE
$$dX_t = V(X_t) \, dW_t,$$
where we identify $V(X_t) \in \mathbb R^n$ with ...
- 6,215
1
vote
0
answers
150
views
What are alternative mathematical definitions of observers beyond Bennett and Hoffman's framework?
Motivation:
This question is inspired by a talk from Avi Wigderson given on Randomness, where the idea that the randomness is in the eye of the observer is suggested.
In the study of information ...
- 3,064
14
votes
1
answer
2k
views
Expected survival time in Russian Roulette not monotone?
Let $a, n$ be positive integers with $a < n$. A revolver with $n$ chambers is loaded with $a$ bullets, where the distribution is uniform among all $\binom{n}{a}$ possible choices of $a$ objects ...
- 6,215
4
votes
0
answers
62
views
Why optional stopping theorems require continuity conditions of martingales?
If we want to prove some form of optional stopping theorem (with a stopping time $T$) for continuous time martingales $M_t$, a typical strategy is to assume that $\mathbb E[M_{T\wedge n}] = \mathbb E[...
- 1,755
0
votes
2
answers
222
views
Reference to get quickly to modern discrete probability theory
I've had some formal training in Analysis - Functional Analysis, Basic Operator Algebra - and I've started working on probability - specifically Combinatorial Statistical Mechanics and Spin-Glasses. ...
4
votes
2
answers
389
views
Gaussian mixtures are dense in total variation?
Let $M_{TV}(\mathbb{R}^d)$ denote the set of probability measures on $\mathbb{R}^d$ with finite total variation norm which are absolutely continuous with respect to the Lebesgue measure.
By a Gaussian ...
- 5,405
1
vote
0
answers
41
views
Asymptotic mixing time and Euclidean probability distance for path graphs
We are given a simple path graph $P(V,E)$ with vertex set $V$ and edge set $E$, having $n=|V|$ nodes. Given an initial distribution $\mathbf{\mu}$ over $V$, let $d_t(\mathbf{\mu},\pi)$ be defined as $\...
- 1,677
2
votes
0
answers
67
views
The unique weak solution to some SDE yields the unique strong solution?
For some filtered probability space $\big(\Omega,\mathcal F, (\mathcal F_t),\mathbb P\big)$, consider a stochastic differential equation (driven by a real-valued Brownian motion $W$) for $X=(X_t)$, ...
- 1,399
2
votes
3
answers
183
views
Existence and sharpness of Bernstein-type bounds on the moment-generating function
Let $X$ be a centred random variable with variance $\sigma^2$, and whose moment-generating function exists in an open neighbourhood of the origin.
Say that $X$ satisfies a 'Bernstein-type' MGF bound ...
- 801
2
votes
0
answers
51
views
Subgraphs of random graphs with a given degree sequence
Let $\mathbf{d}=(d_1,\dots, d_n)$ be a given degree sequence with $3\leq d_i\leq \Delta$ for every $i$, where $\Delta$ is constant. Let $G(n,\mathbf{d})$ denote the random graph uniformly distributed ...
- 143
11
votes
1
answer
500
views
Uncountable families of measurable sets with pairwise positive intersections
Let $(X,\mathcal{B},\mu)$ be an arbitrary finitely additive probability measure space, let $a>0$ and let $(A_i)_{i\in I}$ be an uncountable family of subsets with measure $\geq a$.
Is there an ...
- 10.6k
0
votes
0
answers
57
views
Class of covariance matrices invariant under permutations
I am reading a paper on covariance matrix estimation, and in this paper is introduced a class of covariance matrices:
\begin{equation}
U(q, c_0(p),M)=\{\Sigma: \sigma_{ii}\leq M,\quad \max_j\sum_{j=1}^...
- 1
2
votes
1
answer
154
views
strict inequality for Fatou's lemma
It is not the well-known form of Fatou's lemma. It is shown as below:
let $g\ge 0$ be continuous. If $X_n$ weakly converge to $X$ then
$$\lim\inf_{n\rightarrow \infty} Eg(X_n)\ge Eg(X)$$
I'd like to ...
1
vote
0
answers
67
views
A functional equation coming from a distribution function
Currently, I am working on a random series as follows. Let $\{Y_k\}$ be a sequence of i.i.d. Bernoulli random variables with expectation $p$. Then we define
$$
S = \sum_{k=1}^\infty \prod_{\ell=1}^k 2^...
- 33
4
votes
0
answers
52
views
Isomorphism of Wasserstein space implies isomorphism of base spaces?
Assume $(X_i,d_i)$ are polish spaces (or compact metric spaces) for $i=1,2$.
Further assume that the 1- Wasserstein spaces $(P_1(X_1),W_1)$ and $(P_1(X_2),W_1)$ are isometrically isomorphic. Does that ...
4
votes
1
answer
66
views
Expectation bounds on supremum of family of martingales
Suppose I fix a filtered probability space $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \mathbb{F}, P)$ and on it a Brownian motion $B$. Let $\tau_\alpha$ denote a set of stopping times which satisfies $\sup_\alpha \tau_\...
- 143
2
votes
1
answer
208
views
Proving an exponential sum inequality for symmetric Hamming distance sequences in binary vectors
Background: Let $X = \{0,1\}^k$ represent the set of all binary vectors of length $k$. For two binary vectors $x, y \in X$, the Hamming distance $d_H(x, y)$ is defined as the number of positions where ...
- 349
2
votes
1
answer
111
views
What happens to an SDE conditional on the underlying Brownian motion being close to $f \in C[0, T]$?
The so called forgery theorem for Brownian motion says that for any continuous $f: [0, T] \to \mathbb R^d$, with $f(0) = 0$, the $d$ dimensional Brownian motion $W$ has a nonzero chance of staying $\...
- 6,215
1
vote
1
answer
100
views
Is Nelson-Symanzik positivity compatible with fermionic statistics?
Let $\{ S_n \}_{n =0}^\infty$ be a sequence of tempered distributions where $S_n \in \mathcal{S}'(\mathbb{R}^{nd})$ where $d \in \{2,3,4\}$ is fixed. Moreover, we put three additional conditions:
$...
- 3,477
1
vote
1
answer
62
views
MGF relevant to modified 2nd kind Bessel
Given the moment-generating function
$$
m_{0}(t)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{1-t^2}}\,\text{ for }t<1,
$$ which corresponds to a distribution with density
$$
f(u) = \frac{1}{\pi}K_{0}(\frac{u}{\pi })
$$ where $...
5
votes
1
answer
621
views
Non-atomic probability measures on N
One can intuitively imagine picking a random natural number and ask to what extent the intuition can be axiomatized.
Using the axiom of choice, there is a total finitely additive (monotonic) averaging ...
- 7,545
5
votes
1
answer
389
views
Is a random circle rotation weak mixing almost surely?
Consider the random circle rotation $x \to x + Z \text{ mod 1}$ on $([0, 1], \text{Lebesgue})$ where at each rotation, $Z$ is uniformly distributed on $[0, 1]$ and independent of previous rotations.
...
- 6,215
8
votes
1
answer
585
views
One flip coin game
Nate has $n \geq 2$ coins $\{C_i\}_{0 \leq i \leq n-1}$ that each turn up heads with probability $\frac{i}{n-1}$ each, but he is not sure which ones are which.
He has \$1 with which to bet with. On ...
- 6,215
9
votes
0
answers
242
views
Does there exist such a probability distribution?
Does there exist a probability distribution over the set $\{(x,y,z)\in[0,1]^3\colon x+y+z=3/2\}$ whose projection on each of the three coordinate axes is the uniform distribution over the interval $[0,...
- 128k
5
votes
2
answers
528
views
Which coupling of uniform random variables maximises the essential infimum of the sum?
Recall that a coupling of probability measures $\mu_i$ is a set of random variables $X_i$ defined on the same probability space $\Omega$ such that $X_i \sim \mu_i$.
Question: Let $\mu_1, \dots, \mu_n$ ...
- 6,215
3
votes
0
answers
53
views
Can one parameterize transition rate matrices such that the stable distribution becomes independent of the transition rates?
I am trying to model a problem in which I need to describe a set of continuous time markov chains that depend on some parameter $v$. Thus, for each $v$, let $K(v)$ be $n\times n$ transition matrix ...
- 131
0
votes
1
answer
57
views
Lower bounding an alternating series with signs from a martingale difference sequence
Let $\epsilon_n \in \{-1, 1\}$ be a martingale difference sequence, in the sense that
$$M_n := \sum_{i = 0}^n \epsilon_i$$
is a martingale.
We assume $\epsilon_0 = \pm 1$ with probability $\frac{1}{2}$...
- 6,215
7
votes
2
answers
841
views
Why is $\mathbb R^{\mathbb N}$ not high-dimensional enough?
In this paper [1], the authors consider the limiting distribution of $$S_{n,p}:=\frac{1}{\sqrt n}\sum_{k=1}^nX_k$$ for $p\rightarrow\infty$ as $n\rightarrow\infty$, where $X_1, X_2,\dots, X_n$ are ...
- 181
2
votes
0
answers
124
views
dimensionality reduction of Markov chains
Suppose that $M$ is a time-homogeneous (and, for simplicity, stationary) Markov chain on $d$ states, which induces the probability measure $P$ on paths of length $n$. I seek a Markov chain $M'$ on $d'&...
- 6,541
4
votes
0
answers
133
views
Absolute Continuity of the Karhunen-Loeve expansion coefficients
The Karhunen-Loeve theorem (see these notes or the wikipedia page, for example) states the following:
Theorem: For a continuous, square-integrable, centered stochastic process $(X_t)_{t \in T}$ (with ...
- 73
0
votes
1
answer
88
views
Exchanging the integral and infimum on the space of couplings
Let $\mu,\nu$ be probability measures on $\mathbb{R}^d$ with finite $p$-th moment ($p\in [1,\infty)$) and define the set of couplings by $\mathcal{C}(\mu,\nu)$ i.e. the set of probability measures on ...
- 305
2
votes
1
answer
156
views
Measurability of $X$ with respect to $Y$ in conditional probability distributions
Let $\pi$ be a probability measure on $\mathbb{R}^2$ with respective marginals $\mu$ and $\nu$ such that $(X,Y) \sim \pi$.
Notation:
$\pi_{X=x}$ be the conditional distribution of $Y$ given $X=x$,
$\...
3
votes
0
answers
130
views
A Talagrand inequality for the supremum of partial sums over function classes under dependence. (Reference request)
As a consequence to the Talagrand concentration inequality, it is well known that for a measurable space $(S,\mathcal{S})$ and an i.i.d. sample $X_1,...,X_n$ of $S$-valued random variables, if $\...
- 141
3
votes
0
answers
145
views
Distribution of Brownian motion conditional on linear growth
Let $W$ be a standard $d$-dimensional Brownian motion with $W_0 = 0$ almost surely.
Fix a constant $\lambda > 0$ and timeframe $T > 0$, and consider the event
$$ E_T := \{|B_s| \geq \lambda s\ \...
- 6,215
16
votes
3
answers
782
views
Show there is no positive r.v. $U$ such that $\frac{1}{2} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[U^k 1_{U \ge (k+1)/2 }]}{\mathbb{E}[U^k]}, \, \forall k \in \mathbb{N}_0$
Let $U$ be a non-negative random variable such that for all $k \in \mathbb{N}_0$
\begin{align}
\frac{1}{2} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[U^k 1_{U \ge \frac{k+1}{2} }]}{\mathbb{E}[U^k]}.
\end{align}
In ...
- 671
1
vote
0
answers
87
views
Supremum of sums of functions in $L^1$ taking random signs
Consider the Banach space $X=L^1([0,1])$, and let $n\gg1$ and $x_1, ..., x_n$ be any points in the unit sphere of $X$.
Is there any reasonable lower bound for $$\sup_{(\epsilon_i)_{i=1}^n \in \{-1,+1\}...
- 393
9
votes
1
answer
257
views
Higher or lower? (#2)
$N \geq 2$ players play a game - at the start of the game, they are each given independently and uniformly a number from $[0, 1]$. On each round, they are to guess whether their number is higher or ...
- 6,215
19
votes
4
answers
1k
views
Generalization of a mind-boggling box-opening puzzle
Motivation. Suppose we are given $6$ boxes, arranged in the following manner:
$$\left[\begin{array}{ccc} 1 & 2 & 3 \\ 4 & 5 & 6 \end{array}\right]$$
Two of these boxes contain a ...
- 48.9k
16
votes
1
answer
397
views
Examples of problems in statistics accessible only using information geometry
I am just curious if there are some examples of problems in statistics that are indeed accessible using information geometry while proofs completely avoiding geometry are unknown. In other words, ...
- 269
1
vote
1
answer
157
views
Is finding the CDF from the Laplace transform well-posed?
In my study of Dynamic Light Scattering, I came across the following inverse problem. Let $F(s):[0,T]\rightarrow[0,T]$ be the Laplace transform of a probability distribution $f(t)$ on the real line ...
- 654
4
votes
1
answer
286
views
The gacha stamp collector’s problem
Let $N \gg n \geq 2$ be fixed natural numbers. In the Gacha stamp game, players are given an $N \times N$ square grid, with each point occupied by a unique stamp.
On every turn, they may choose a ...
- 6,215
1
vote
0
answers
74
views
Asymptotically small submatrices of random matrices
Consider an ensemble of $N \times N$ random Hermitian matrices distributed according to some unitarily invariant measure
$$P(M) \mathrm{d}M = \frac{1}{Z_{N}} e^{-\mathrm{tr}[ Q(M)]}\mathrm{d}M,$$
for ...
- 131
2
votes
0
answers
114
views
Echoes of the chord
Just a fun problem I thought of.
A man is playing a magical pipe organ - every chord is an integer number of decibals (dB) loud. The softest chord is $0$ dB. Every chord of $N > 0$ dB creates a ...
- 6,215
2
votes
2
answers
88
views
Can the solution to a controlled SDE with additive noise have non full support?
Let $W$ be a standard $d$-dimensional Brownian motion. Consider the following SDE
$$dX_t = b(X_t, u_t) \, dt + dW_t$$
with initial condition $X_0 = 0$ a.s., $b: \mathbb R^d \times \mathbb R^n \to \...
- 6,215
3
votes
1
answer
158
views
Upper and lower bounds for a Rademacher-type expectation
Suppose that $\varepsilon_i$
are independent Rademacher random variables
(that is,
$
\mathbb{P}(\varepsilon_i=-1)
=
\mathbb{P}(\varepsilon_i=1)
=1/2
$.
Fix an $a\in\mathbb{R}^n$
and define the random ...
- 6,541
6
votes
1
answer
660
views
On the martingale betting scheme
For a fixed probability $0 < p < 1$, let $X^p$ be the martingale that goes up by $1$ with probability $p$, and goes down by $\frac{p}{q}$ with probability $q := 1-p$.
Write $X$ for the ...
- 6,215
5
votes
1
answer
188
views
Girsanov's theorem for Gaussian measures as the Cameron-martin theorem with a random shift
Let $H \subset E$ be the Cameron-Martin space of a Gaussian measure $\mu$ on a separable Banach space $E$. The Cameron-Martin theorem states that for all $h \in E$ we have $h \in H$ if and only if $\...
- 203
1
vote
0
answers
40
views
Renewal Process with inter-arrival times having quadratic tails
Consider a sequence $(X_n)_{n \ge 1}$ of i.i.d. Pareto($2$) random variables, which means
$$
\mathbb{P}( X_1 > x) =
\begin{cases}
1/x \qquad &\text{for } x \ge 1
\\
1 \qquad & \text{else}....
- 116
4
votes
0
answers
145
views
Is it easier to exit a box to the right of a box in $\mathbb{Z}^2$ if I remove some edges to the left?
Suppose that I am given the graph $G = (V,E)$ where
$V = \{ 1, 2, \dots 2N+1 \} \times \{ 1, 2, \dots 2N+1 \} $
and there is an edge between two vertices $(n,m)$ and $(n',m')$ if and only if
$\vert n-...
- 1,054