Questions tagged [pr.probability]
Theory and applications of probability and stochastic processes: e.g. central limit theorems, large deviations, stochastic differential equations, models from statistical mechanics, queuing theory.
920 questions
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Guessing the next card colour in a deck [closed]
Hi there, here's another puzzle I've been looking at.
Suppose you are to guess the colour of the next card in an ordinary deck of 52 cards---red or black---one at a time. How many can you expect to ...
- 181
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Any reference on Brownian Motion continuity
Hi,
I've started studying brownian motion, and gathered some books on the subject but
something looks odd to me : All of the presentations I've seen this far consider the continuity of the brownian ...
- 244
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Poisson kernel, expectation, an absolute value comes in
See here.
Let $d = 2$, and consider the domain $D = \mathbb{H}$, the upper half-plane. Let $W_t = (X_t, Y_t)$. We see that for any $\theta \in \mathbb{R}$ and any $t \ge 0$, we have$$E^{(x, y)}\...
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An inequality involving the Wasserstein distance and chi-squared distance
$\newcommand{\N}{\mathbb N}$Let $P$ be the set of all probability mass functions on $\N_0:=\{0\}\cup\N$, where $\N:=\{1,2,\dots\}$. Let $P_{>0}$ denote the set of all $q=(q_0,q_1,\dots)\in P$ such ...
- 128k
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Lower bounding the probability that a zero-mean sequence of random variables stays positive
Assume that $X_n$ is a sequence of a zero-mean and unit variance random variables (and maybe having density w.r.t. to Lebesgue). Can we conclude that $ P(X_n \in [0,R_n]) $ is bounded away from zero ...
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385
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How fast does this Gaussian random walk move away from the origin?
Suppose $z_i$ are IID zero-centered $d$-dimensional Gaussian random variables with unit-trace covariance $\Sigma$ and $g(z_i)$ is the sum of its components.
Consider the following random walk:
$$x_s=\...
- 2,252
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Comparison of Rademacher and Gaussian moments under linear transformations
Let $X$ be an $n$ dimensional standard Gaussian and let $U$ be an $n \times n$ orthogonal matrix. Then, the random vector $Z = U^\top X$ is also distributed as a standard Gaussian in $R^n$ and we have ...
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Two increasingly correlated Brownian motions and Williams decomposition
The Williams decomposition is
Let $(B_t-\nu t)_{t\geq 0}$ be a Brownian motion with negative drift $\nu>0$ and let $M_\infty^{-\nu}:=\sup_{t\in [0,\infty]}(B_t-\nu t)$. Then conditionally on $M_\...
- 5,474
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Building random homeomorphisms of the torus $\mathbb T^2$
In https://arxiv.org/abs/0912.3423, a family of random homeomorphisms of the circle is constructed. Main Question: Can the construction be generalized to higher space dimensions, e.g. to $\mathbb T^2$?...
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Null hypothesis test for independent but not identically distributed samples
I'm trying to figure out the best statistical test to use for an edge case I've run into: trying to figure out the likelihood of the null hypothesis for a set of samples that each (potentially) come ...
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Is $\sum_{\substack{s\:\ge\:0\\\Delta X_s\:\ne\:0}}1_B(s,\Delta X_s)$ measurable for fixed $B\in\mathcal B([0,\infty)\times\mathbb R)$?
Let $(X_t)_{t\ge0}$ be a càdlàg Lévy process on a filtered probability space $(\Omega,\mathcal A,(\mathcal F_t)_{t\ge0},\operatorname P)$ and $B\in\mathcal B([0,\infty)\times\mathbb R)$.
How can we ...
- 167
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Does $\mathcal{KL}(D)$ admit the "yanking" axiom
Bob Coecke made the "yanking" axiom famous as he applied it to teleportation in Quantum Computing:
This is normally presented on the category of Hilbert spaces, and so here is a derivation ...
- 331
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When is every Levy martingale of a process a continuous martingale?
Let $X_t$ be a real valued stochastic process, and $\mathcal H_t$ the the natural filtration of $X_t$.
Under what conditions on $X$ does the following statement hold?
For every $\mathcal H_\infty$-...
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Unexpected autocorrelations in sequence of primes modulo 4
It is well known that there is a little bias in the distribution of prime residues modulo 4. But the bias eventually vanishes. I looked at the first million primes, and the counts are as follows:
...
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A measure on the group of homeomorphisms of $\mathbb T^2$
Let us consider the group of measure-preserving homeomorphisms of $\mathbb T^2$ (with transformations identified if they agree almost
everywhere) called $G[\mathbb T^2, \mathcal L^2]$. We shall ...
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triply line stochastic matrix with maximum total on some cubes
A triply line stochastic matrix (t.l.s.m.) of size $N$ is a 3-dimensional array $(a_{ijk})_{i,j,k=1}^N$ with nonnegative entries, whose any row, column or line sums up to $1$. Their set is $TLS_N$.
...
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Comparison of Rademacher and Gaussian expected values under linear transformations
As per suggestion, I have decided to post the following as a new question, but it is a follow-up to this one: Comparison of Rademacher and Gaussian moments under linear transformations
Let $X$ be an $...
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Finding the expectation of $a \mathcal{Q} \left( \sqrt{b } \gamma \right) $, where $\gamma$ is a Gamma r.v
I'm trying to analytically find the following expectation
$$\mathbb{E}\left[ a \mathcal{Q} \left( \sqrt{b } \gamma \right) \right],$$
where $a$ and $b$ are constant values, $\mathcal{Q}$ is the ...
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503
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Asymptotics of a 1D integral, or the orthant probability of an equicorrelated random Gaussian vector
Problem: Let $\phi(x)$ be the normal probability density function (pdf), and $\Phi(x)$ the normal cumulative distribution (cdf). I'm interested in the asymptotic behavior of the following integral
$I(...
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Conditions for existence of a distribution with full support
Consider a $6\times 1$ continuous random vector
$$
\eta\equiv (\eta_1,\eta_2,..., \eta_6)
$$
satisfying the following property:
$$
\underbrace{\begin{pmatrix}
\eta_1\\
\eta_2\\
\eta_3
\end{pmatrix}}_{\...
- 108
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A martingale extension/interpolation problem
Let $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},(\mathcal{F}_t)_{t\geq 0},\mathbb{P})$ be a stochastic basis and let $N\in\mathbb{Z}^+$, $T>0$, $\{t_n\}_{n=1}^{N}$ be a partition of $[0,T]$ with $t_0=0,t_n<t_{n+1},t_N=...
- 77
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519
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Bounds on variance of sum of dependent random variables
Let $x_1, \ldots, x_n$ be possibly dependent random variables, each taking values $x_i \in \{0, 1, 2\}$. Suppose further that in every outcome the number of random variables that equal 2 is exactly 1. ...
- 153
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217
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Independent sampling of dependent random variables
Let $x_1, \ldots, x_n$ be possibly dependent random variables, each taking values $x_i \in \{0, 1, 2\}$. Suppose further that in every outcome the number of random variables that equal 2 is exactly 1. ...
- 153
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213
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Behavior of the sum of the exponents of chi-squared random variables normalized by their maximum
Let $X_1,X_2,\ldots,X_n$ be a sequence of $n$ i.i.d. chi-squared random variables with $k$ degrees of freedom, and denote by $X_\max$ the maximum of this sequence. Furthermore, let $k=\omega(1)$ ...
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What is the significance of Blumenthal and Getoor's result on the boundedness of paths of a standard Markov process?
In the book Markov processes and Potential Theory of Blumenthal and Getoor we can find the following result:
I don't understand the significance of this result. If I don't misinterpret the assertion, ...
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Distribution of the $k$-th largest eigenvalue of in the sample covariance matrix?
Let us assume we've a rectangular data matrix $X=[x_1 \dots x_n] \in \mathbb{R}^{p \times n}$, where the $x_i \in \mathbb{R}^{p \times 1}$ are iid column vectors. I'm not assuming here that the ...
- 1,467
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Lower bounding the infimum of a random process
Let $X_{t}=\sum_{i=1}^n(1+s\cdot w_i)t_i\sin(t_i)$ where $t\in T=[-\pi/2,\pi/2]^n/\{\vec 0\}$, $w_i$ are iid standard gaussian variables, $s$ is a scalar denoting the strength of Gaussian noise.
How ...
- 405
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In smooth stochastic dynamics, if a Lebesgue-like measure is both forward-time and reverse-time stationary, is the measure necessarily incompressible?
Let $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},\mathbb{P})$ be a probability space and let $X$ be a compact connected $C^\infty$-smooth manifold. Let $F \colon \Omega \times X \to X$ and $\bar{F} \colon \Omega \times X \to ...
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What is the relationship between $E(X\mid\mathcal{A})$ and $E(X\mid A)$?
This question seems obvious, but not sure how to prove it.
Let $\mathcal{A}$ be a $\sigma$-algebra, and $X$ be a random variable.
Suppose $E(X\mid A)\le1$ for any $A\in\mathcal{A}$, can we conclude ...
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The distribution of the sum of inner products of two independent complex normal vectors
If I have $\mathbf x_n=[x_0, x_1,... ,x_K]^T$ and $\mathbf y_n=[y_0, y_2, ..., y_K]^T$, where $x,y\sim\mathcal C\mathcal N(\mathbf 0,\sigma^2\mathbf I)$.
What is the distribution of the following ...
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About another potential characterization of normal numbers
Normal numbers, in a nutshell, are real numbers that have a "uniform" distribution of digits in standard numeration systems (binary, decimal, and so on.) You can find a formal definition and ...
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Understanding the approximation of a random sum of random processes
I want to understand an approximation of a compound Poisson distribution in this paper.
First, let's set the environment. Consider $\mathcal{P}$ the class of distributions of real-valued and strictly ...
- 135
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Number of drifted Brownian motions that never hit zero under allocation
For each $n\ge 1$, consider $X^i_t=1-\beta t + W^i_t$ for $i=1,\ldots n$ and $t\ge 0$, where $\beta>0$ and $(W^i_t)_{t\ge 0}$ are independent Brownian motions. $\phi\equiv \big((\phi^1_t)_{t\ge 0},\...
- 1,334
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PDF of the summation of L lognormal RVs
Given the following summation
$$\gamma = \sum_{l=1}^{L} y_{l},$$
where the PDF of $Y$ follows the lognormal distribution and is given by
$$f_{Y}(y)=\frac{10}{y\ln(10)\sqrt{2\pi}\sigma}\exp\left(-\frac{...
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273
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Sum of sequences of random variables, with variable success probabilities
Consider two sequences of (not necessarily independent) Bernoulli random variables $X_1, X_2, \ldots, X_n$ and $Y_1, Y_2, \ldots, Y_n$. Suppose that for any $i$, we have $\Pr[X_i = 1] = \Pr[Y_i = 1] = ...
- 153
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Have some works by Émile Borel ever been translated from French to English or another foreign language?
I plan to submit a couple of questions around Émile Borel's works in probability theory to MO.
In this scope, I'd like to know if the following works have ever been translated from French to English ...
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Local behavior of the Vandermonde convolution
An interesting combinatorial identity is the Vandermonde convolution identity:
$$ \sum_k {n\choose k}{m\choose s-k} = {n+m \choose s},$$
which can be proved by considering the coefficients in $(x+1)^{...
- 5,230
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If a probability measure is stationary in both forward time and reverse time, does this imply that the measure is incompressible?
Let $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},\mathbb{P})$ be a probability space and let $X$ be a compact metric space. Let $F \colon \Omega \times X \to X$ and $\bar{F} \colon \Omega \times X \to X$ be measurable ...
- 708
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LDP for Marchenko Pastur with k/n tending to 0
I am interested in the determinant of $W = X * X'$, where $X \in \mathbb{R}^{k \times n}$ is a matrix with each row drawn IID from some sub-Gaussian distribution on $\mathbb{R}^{n}$. (I am aware of ...
- 435
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Wasserstein distance between $N(0,1/d)$ and the marginal distribution of $x_1$ when $x=(x_1,\ldots,x_d)$ is uniform on the unit-sphere in $R^d$
Let $x=(x_1,\ldots,x_d)$ be uniformly distributed on the unit-sphere in $\mathbb R^d$.
Question.
What is a good upper-bound for Wasserstein distance between $N(0,1/d)$ and the marginal distribution ...
- 6,853
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Convergence of the probabilities that drifted Brownian motion with jump never hits zero (continuation)
This question can be seen as a continuation of my question at Convergence of the probabilities that drifted Brownian motion with jump never hits zero
Let $(W_t)_{t\ge 0}$ be a standard Brownian motion ...
user128095
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Probability of an edge appearing in a spanning tree
Hi guys, let's say I have a connected, undirected graph with many nodes. I am interested in finding the probability that an edge appears in any spanning tree of the graph. I could apply some of the ...
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2
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Quadratic covariation of two not independent Brownian motions
Given two not independent Brownian motions, $X$ and $Y$. I was wondering if we can say anything about the quadratic covariation of $X$ and $Y$, $\langle X,Y \rangle_t$. I know that for two independent ...
- 103
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244
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Weak solutions of linear parabolic PDEs and corresponding SDEs
It is well known that for an Stochastic differential equation (on the real line) of the form:
$dX_t = \mu(X_t)dt + \sigma(X_t)dW$
where $W$ is the standard Wiener process, the transition probability ...
- 3
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122
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Nilpotent infinite binary matrices
Let $\text{Mat}(\mathbb{N},\{0,1\})$ be the set of all maps $A:\mathbb{N}\times\mathbb{N}\to \{0,1\}$. We define a matrix multiplication for $A, B\in \text{Mat}(\mathbb{N},\{0,1\}$) and $m,n\in\mathbb{...
- 48.9k
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183
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Probability to cross dynamic boundary for 1D-random walk?
context: Imagine we have an evolving bit sequence (ex: 001011...) where the probability to get 0 or 1 is 1/2. n is the lengh of my sequence (the number of bits)
I can make an analogy with random walk: ...
- 5
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292
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Volume of randomly changing sphere follows beta distribution
We are given $X,X_1,\ldots,X_N$ independent and identically distributed $k$-dimensional vectors. For a given query point $X_q\in\mathbb{R}^k$ assume without loss of generality that $X_1,\ldots,X_m$ ...
- 329
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2
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211
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Stationary sequence and nonzero probabilities
Suppose I have a two sided stationary sequence of random variables $\ldots,X_{-1},X_0,X_1,\ldots$ such that all finite dimensional joint densities $f(x_1,\ldots,x_n)$, $n\in\mathbb{N}$ exist. I want ...
- 479
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154
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Convergence of the probabilities that drifted Brownian motion with jump never hits zero
Let $X_t=2+t+W_t$ for $t\ge 0$, where $(W_t)_{t\ge 0}$ is a standard Brownian motion. For every $n\ge 1$, set $X^n_t:=X_t-{\bf 1}_{t\ge n}$. Denote respectively
$$\tau:=\inf\{t\ge 0:~ X_t\le 0\}\quad \...
user128095
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113
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How much a probability distribution is non-uniform in a convex subspace of $\mathbb{R}^d$?
I know a number of (standard and well known) ways to measure the distance between two probability distributions and, more in general, to quantify how much one is far from another.
Could you please ...
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