All Questions
Tagged with pr.probability martingales
210 questions
13
votes
1
answer
713
views
Identity involving the probability that a random walk stays below a curve
I'm looking for a direct proof of the following identity:
Let $W_n$ be a simple random walk with $W_0=0$. For all $x>0$ we have
$$
\lim _{N\to \infty} \sqrt{N} \cdot \mathbb P \Big( \forall n \le ...
- 723
12
votes
1
answer
5k
views
Martingales in both discrete and continuous setting
I am wondering, polynomials like
$S_n^4-6n S_n^2+3n^2+2n$ for $$S_n=\sum_{i=1}^n{X_i}$$ where $$\mathbb{P}(X_i=1)=\mathbb{P}(X_i=-1)=\frac{1}{2}$$ is a martingale (under the conventional filtration). ...
- 255
12
votes
3
answers
2k
views
Compactness of the set of densities of equivalent martingale measures
Consider an incomplete market $(\Omega,\mathcal F,\mathbb P)$ driven by a semimartingale $S=(S_t)_{t\in[0,T]}$. Under the no free lunch under vanishing risk (NFLVR) assumption, the set $\mathcal P^\...
- 243
12
votes
2
answers
2k
views
Can we do better than Azuma-Hoeffding when the variance is small?
The Azuma-Hoeffding Inequality says that if $X_1,X_2, \ldots$ is a martingale and the differences are bounded by constants, $\|X_i - X_{i-1}\| \le 1$ say, then we should not expect the difference $\|...
- 1,955
12
votes
5
answers
3k
views
Properties preserved under passage to augmented filtration
Dear all,
generally speaking, my question is about which properties of a stochastic process are preserved when I skip from the original to the augmented filtration.
Recall that if $(\mathcal{F}_t)_{...
- 121
12
votes
1
answer
2k
views
Hardy spaces: analysis <---> martingales
Let $H^p$ be the Hardy space of analytic functions on the open unit disk $\mathbb{D}$: $f \in H^p$ if $f$ is analytic on $\mathbb{D}$ and $\sup_{r < 1} \int_0^{2\pi} |f(re^{i\theta})|^p d\theta <...
- 943
12
votes
1
answer
330
views
Convergence of an implicitly defined sequence of random variables
Let $\{X_n\}_{n\ge 1}$ be a sequence of independent identically distributed Poisson random variables with mean $\lambda^*$. Consider a sequence of random variables $\{\hat{\lambda}_{n}\}_{n\ge 1}$ ...
- 171
12
votes
0
answers
196
views
UMD constant of finite dimensional spaces
For a Banach space $B$, its one-sided Unconditional Martingale Difference (UMD) constant $C^-_p$ (for $p \in (1,\infty)$) is the smallest value such that for all $B$-valued martingale difference ...
- 408
11
votes
2
answers
1k
views
Can every discrete martingale be embedded in a continuous martingale?
Let $(X_k)_{k=0,1,..., n}$ be a discrete martingale defined on some probability space $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},\mathbb{P})$. I would like to know whether there exists a (continuous) martingale $(\tilde{X}...
- 1,835
11
votes
2
answers
2k
views
De Finetti's theorem, the pointwise ergodic theorem, and reverse martingales
De Finetti's theorem says that an exchangeable sequence of random variables $X_i$ is a mixture of i.i.d. random variables. In other words, if $\mu$ is a measure on $\mathbb{R}^\infty$ that is ...
- 6,287
11
votes
5
answers
4k
views
Brownian motion, martingales, Markov Chains - Rosetta Stone
What are the most
fundamental/useful/interesting ways in
which the concepts of Brownian motion,
martingales and markov chains are
related?
I'm a graduate student doing a crash course in ...
11
votes
0
answers
223
views
Savings property: A transformation which turns nonnegative martingales into uniformly integrable ones
Background
I work in a subfield of computability theory called algorithmic randomness. We have been using martingales as long as probability theory (going back to work of von Mises). However, since ...
- 6,287
10
votes
2
answers
829
views
On martingale convergence
Let $(X_t)_{t\ge0}$ be a martingale with continuous paths. It was previously shown here and here that then it is impossible that $X_t\to\infty$ almost surely as $t\to\infty$.
Is it possible that there ...
- 128k
10
votes
1
answer
700
views
Martingales converging in probability but not a.s
It is known that a random series
$$
\sum_{n\geq 1} X_n
$$
whose terms $X_n$ are independent converges a.s. if and only if it converges in probability.
Is it true that a martingale $(Y_n)$ converges a....
- 34.7k
10
votes
1
answer
2k
views
Law of large numbers for martingales
I apologize in advance if this question is too basic, but I've received no response on Math Stack Exchange, so perhaps it is more appropriate here:
Let $X_n$ be a square-integrable martingale with $\...
- 103
10
votes
3
answers
4k
views
Extension of the Azuma-Hoeffding inequality (when the differences are bounded with large probability)
Let $(X_i)$ be a super-martingale and suppose their differences are bounded ''with high probability'', that is
$$\mathbb{P}(\exists\,i=1,\dots,n\text{ s.t. }|X_i-X_{i-1}|>c_i) \,\leq\, \epsilon$$
...
- 223
10
votes
1
answer
532
views
a question on 0-1 valued stochastic process
Here's a question on probability theory from a layman (I'm a game theorist). It is very likely that the question will be a straightforward matter for someone who is a probability theorist. I guess I'm ...
10
votes
4
answers
681
views
The min of the mean of iid exponential variables
Let $X_1, \ldots, X_n, \ldots$ be iid exponential random variables with mean 1. It is well-known that $\min_{1\le j < \infty} \frac{X_1 + \cdots + X_j}{j}$ follows the uniform distribution U(0,1). ...
- 773
9
votes
2
answers
1k
views
Adaptive version of the Azuma–Hoeffding inequality
The Azuma inequality states that if we have a martingale $X_1,\ldots,X_N$ that satisfies a bounded difference condition:
$$|X_k - X_{k-1}| \leq c_k$$
Then:
$$\Pr\left[X_N - X_0 \geq \sqrt{2\sum_kc_k^2 ...
- 794
9
votes
3
answers
868
views
Rosenthal like inequality for weak $\mathbb L^p$-norms
Let $p$ be a real number greater than $1$. It is well known (see Hall and Heyde's Martingale limit theory and its applications, Theorem 2.10) that there exists a constant $C_p$ such that if $(X_i)_{i=...
- 3,968
9
votes
3
answers
448
views
All stationary martingales are constant?
Suppose $(X_{n})_{n\geq{1}}$ is a stationary process that is a martingale with respect to some filtration. Suppose also that $\mathbb{E}X_{0}^{2}<\infty$ so that $\mathbb{E}X_{n}^{2}<\infty$ for ...
- 662
9
votes
1
answer
556
views
Berry-Esseen bound for martingale sequence with varying and dependent variances
Let $(X_{1},\ldots,X_{k},\ldots)$ be a martingale difference sequence, i.e.
$$
E[X_{k}|\mathcal{F}_{k-1}] = 0
$$
where $\mathcal{F}_{k-1}$ is the $\sigma$-algebra filtration at $k-1$.
Let $\sigma_{...
- 719
9
votes
1
answer
4k
views
Quadratic variation and predictable quadratic variation for martingales
Let $(M_{t})_{0\le t\le 1}$ be a continuous martingale with respect to the filtration $(\mathcal{F}_{t})_{0\le t\le 1}$. Assume that $E M_1^2<\infty$.
Fix $N$ and consider now a discrete version ...
- 931
8
votes
1
answer
533
views
Concentration bounds for martingales with adaptive Gaussian steps
Consider the following martingale: $X_1 \sim \mathcal{N}(0, 1)$, and for any $n > 1$, $X_n \sim \mathcal{N}(X_{n-1}, X_{n-1}^2)$ (notice, this is a conditional distribution given $X_{n-1}$).
I am ...
- 83
8
votes
3
answers
2k
views
What is the optimal growth of the constant in BDG?
Let $X$ be a continuous local martingale, and $\langle X \rangle$ be its quadratic variation process. The "standard" proof of Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequalities found in books yields $(\mathsf{E} |X|^...
- 4,010
8
votes
1
answer
694
views
A generalization of Jensen's Inequality
Jensen's inequality is well known as
$$E\big[f(X)\big]\le f\big(E[X]\big)$$
where $X$ is a integrable random variable and $f: R\to R$ is a bounded concave function, see also http://en.wikipedia.org/...
- 1,835
8
votes
1
answer
778
views
Is this a martingale sequence?
I have a sequence of random variables $X_1, X_2, \ldots X_N$ such that $|X_i| \leq R \ \forall \ i $, satisfying
$$|E[X_n|X_1,X_2,\ldots X_{n-1}]| \leq |X_{n-1}|, $$
Can I construct a sub/super-...
7
votes
2
answers
2k
views
A curious martingale
Does there exist an almost surely continuous martingale $X$ with $X_t \to +\infty$ almost surely?
Remark: Note that such a martingale exists in discrete time, or equivalently in continuous time if the ...
- 6,213
7
votes
1
answer
394
views
Reference request: Martingale decompositions (positive/negative and u.i./singular)
For a paper I am writing, I need these two facts. The proofs are fairly short, but I would rather just cite them. This is for martingales index by natural numbers. Also, I call a martingale which ...
- 6,287
7
votes
2
answers
594
views
Large deviation/concentration inequality for submartingale
Let $S_t = M_t + D_t$ be the sum of a martingale $\left(M_t\right)_{t=1,2,\ldots}$ and a predictable process $(D_t)_{t=1,2,\ldots}$ such that the variance of the increments of $M$ is uniformly bounded ...
- 355
7
votes
1
answer
975
views
Prove an anti-concentration inequality for a martingale
My problem can be described easily:
I have a sequence $(X_l)_{l \in \mathbb{N}}$ of r.v. adapted to some filtration $(\mathcal{F}_l)_{l \in \mathbb{N}}$, such that
$\left|X_{l+1}-X_l\right|\le R$ a. ...
- 73
7
votes
2
answers
2k
views
Proof of extended supermartingale convergence theorem
There is a supermartingale convergence theorem which is often cited in texts which use Stochastic Approximation Theory and Reinforcement Learning, in particular the famous book "Neuro-dynamic ...
- 183
7
votes
1
answer
466
views
Martingale version of Bernstein-type inequality for (slightly) heavy-tailed distributions?
It is known that for sub-exponentially distributed martingale difference sequence, the following Bernstein-type inequality holds:
$$
ℙ\left(\left|
\sum_{i=1}^N a_i X_i
\right| \ge t \right)
\le
2\...
- 719
7
votes
1
answer
1k
views
Moment bounds on exponential martingale
Consider the exponential martingale used in the Girsanov transformation of
measure:
$$Z(t) = \exp\Big(\int_0^tXdW - \frac{1}{2}\int_0^t|X|^2ds\Big)$$
so that $Z$ solves the sde $dZ = ZXdW$ where $W$ ...
- 143
7
votes
1
answer
1k
views
a $L^1$ convergence for backward martingale
I have a question which may be naive, but I can not find the related result in the classical reference such as "Foundations of Modern Probability" and "Probability"(Billingsley). So if someone knows ...
- 1,835
7
votes
1
answer
409
views
Do i.i.d. sums concentrate any faster than martingales?
Suppose $X_1,X_2, \ldots, X_N \in \mathbb R^d$ are random variables with each $\|X_n\|_2 \le 1/2$ (this choice of the constant simplifies later formulae).
The simplest concentration inequality I know ...
- 1,955
7
votes
1
answer
487
views
A note on Doob's theorem
I have faced the following problem, regarding to the Martingale Theory. Because this area far from my area I don't know whether this problem is in literature or this can be simple question for ...
- 103
7
votes
1
answer
560
views
Doob's inequality for martingale "convolution"
Let $(X_t, t \in \mathbb{N})$ be a martingale, and let $a \leq b \leq T \in \mathbb{N}$ be constants. Is there something like Doob's inequality for $\mathbb{E} \sup_{a \leq t \leq b} X_t(X_T-X_t)$, i....
- 1,069
6
votes
10
answers
8k
views
Best introduction to probability spaces, convergence, spectral analysis
I'm not sure if this stuff all falls under what most would just term "probability", but I'm researching applied macroeconomics and need to get a handle on the following concepts ASAP:
probability ...
- 163
6
votes
3
answers
999
views
Does there exist an almost surely differentiable martingale?
Does there exist a continuous time martingale $X_t$ not a.s. constant in $t$ that is almost surely everywhere differentiable?
- 6,213
6
votes
1
answer
396
views
Is a martingale conditioned to be large a submartingale?
Let $X$ be a continuous time martingale such that $X_\infty := \lim_{t \to \infty} X_t$ exists almost surely. Let $x \in \mathbb R$ be such that $\mathbb P(X_\infty \geq x) > 0$, and define the ...
- 6,213
6
votes
3
answers
2k
views
Iterated Ito Integral, Gaussian Volterra Process
Let me define
$$
J^f_{n}(t) = \, \int_0^t \int_0^{t_1} \ldots \int_0^{t_{n-1}} f(t, t_1, \ldots, t_n) \; dB_{t_n} ...dB_{t_1}
$$
where $f:[0,1]^{n+1} \to \mathbb{R}$ is a nice deterministic function....
- 271
6
votes
1
answer
660
views
On the martingale betting scheme
For a fixed probability $0 < p < 1$, let $X^p$ be the martingale that goes up by $1$ with probability $p$, and goes down by $\frac{p}{q}$ with probability $q := 1-p$.
Write $X$ for the ...
- 6,213
6
votes
2
answers
912
views
Path continuity for (closed) martingales?
Take a time interval $[0,T]$, and a filtered probability space $(\Omega,P,\mathcal{F},\mathcal{F}_t)$. If $X \in L^1(\mathcal{F}_T)$, then $M_t = E [X \ | \ \mathcal{F}_t]$ is a martingale. If I ...
- 943
6
votes
1
answer
421
views
Probability in Chromatic number upper bound of induced subgraph
Let $G=(V, E)$ be a graph with chromatic number $\chi(G)=1000 .$ Let $U \subset V$ be a random subset of $V$ chosen uniformly from among all $2^{|V|}$ subsets of $V$. Let $H=G[U]$ be the induced ...
- 61
6
votes
1
answer
956
views
History of optional sampling/stopping theorem
Does anyone have a good explanation of the name, and why Doob chose it? It states the following: if $T$ is a stopping time such that $\mathbb{P}(T < \infty)$, and $M_n$ is a uniformly integrable ...
- 941
6
votes
1
answer
168
views
Weak convergence of random measures generated by non-negative martingales?
If I have a sequence of non-negative continuous martingales $(M_n(x))_{n\ge 1}$ on $x\in[0,1]$, i.e. for each fixed $n$, $M_n:[0,1]\to[0,\infty)$ is a continuous process, and for each fixed $x\in[0,1]$...
- 715
6
votes
1
answer
461
views
Gronwall lemma with conditional expectation
The discrete Gronwall's inequality states that if $x_n$ and and $u_n$ are non-negative sequences such that
$$ x_{n+1}\le a+\sum_{k=0}^n u_k x_k$$
then $$x_n\le a\prod_{k=0}^{n-1} (1+u_k)$$
(It can be ...
- 562
6
votes
1
answer
653
views
Change of space-time in Walsh's stochastic integral
One can read about Walsh's construction of martingale integral in the paper (pp.16-23)
http://www.math.utah.edu/~davar/ps-pdf-files/SPDEBookDK.pdf (Wayback Machine)
For $U,V\in \mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}\...
6
votes
0
answers
150
views
Delayed Pólya's urn process
The standard Pólya's urn process can be stated as follows:
You have an urn with red and green balls. At any time unit you choose one ball at random, note the colour, and give the ball back. At the ...
- 396