All Questions
112 questions
2
votes
1
answer
387
views
Weak convergence of sum of log normal random variables
Let $S_t$ be the Geometric Brownian Motion, we know that
$$dS_t=rS_tdt+\sigma S_tdW_t, t\in [0,T], S_0>0, r>0,\sigma>0$$
and the distribution of $S_t$ is known explicitly. Please see the ...
- 323
2
votes
1
answer
421
views
Extending Wald's equation to two classes of i.d. random variables?
I try to adopt Wald's equation to a slightly more complex problem. In fact, after a full day, I found some solution now, but it has a confusing argument in the middle. Perhaps somebody can help me at ...
- 340
2
votes
1
answer
447
views
MCMC with progressive demollification of delta distributions
Edit: I simplified the example to a canonical case for clarity.
Given an integral $\int_{\Omega}{g(\mathbf{x})}$ with a well-posed integrand $g(\mathbf{x})$ defined on some multidimensional space $\...
2
votes
0
answers
84
views
Concentration result for self-normalized empirical process
In Theorem 1.1 of this paper by Bercu, Gassiat and Rio, a concentration result is derived for the 'self-normalized' empirical process. Specifically, suppose that $(X,X_n)_{n \ge 1}$ is a sequence of i....
- 206
2
votes
0
answers
124
views
Rough path expected signature vs cumulant-generating function / characteristic function
What is the point of using rough path expected signature to characterize the law of а stochastic process when the cumulant generating function is known ($\log\mathbb{E}[e^{i\theta X(t)}]$)?
Since an ...
- 53
2
votes
0
answers
109
views
Tightness of Hilbert-space-valued arrays
Let $\mathcal{H}$ be a separable Hilbert space. Assume we have some triangular array $W_{n,j}, j=1, \ldots ,n $ of $\mathcal{H}$-valued random elements with $\mathbb{E} \Vert W_{n,j} \Vert_{\mathcal{H}...
- 83
2
votes
0
answers
173
views
Weak convergence of $\mathcal{L}^2$ valued random variables
Consider two continuous functions $f,g: \mathbb{R}^{2} \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ with $f(x,\cdot), g(x,\cdot) \in \mathcal{L}^2(\mathbb{R},\mathcal{B},\lambda)$ for all $x \in \mathbb{R}$ and a sequence ...
- 83
2
votes
0
answers
169
views
Stochastic Approximation in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space
Consider an iterative algorithm with incremental updates
\begin{align}
x_{t+1} = x_t + \alpha_t \cdot [ h(x_t) + M_{t+1}],
\end{align}
where $\{x_t \}_{t \geq 0}$ is in a reproducing kernel Hilbert ...
- 1,127
2
votes
1
answer
658
views
Extension of Talagrand contraction lemma (on empirical Rademacher complexity)
Is the following true?
Let $(x_1,...,x_N)$ be a set of points on the unit sphere $S^{d-1}$.
Let $\ell_x: [-1,1]\rightarrow [0,1]$ be a family of Lipschitz functions indexed by $x\in S^{d-1}$, with ...
- 517
2
votes
0
answers
101
views
Best describing a stochastic process in terms of others
Intuitive Question
Suppose I'm given a set of $k$ time-series $\{X_t^1,\dots X_t^k\}$. Is there a way to determine how much of each series is dependent on the others.
Formal Question
More ...
- 5,405
2
votes
0
answers
87
views
A question about probabilistic graphical models
Say one is given a probabilistic graphical model and a cut of the underlying graph. Do we know any statements about when and how can one or many of the marginals (of the sources) or the conditionals (...
- 2,246
2
votes
0
answers
619
views
Laplace transform of a integral function of CIR/CEV process
The Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model (or CIR model) describes the evolution of interest rates. Constant elasticity of variance model (CEV) is a stochastic volatility model, which attempts to capture ...
- 323
2
votes
0
answers
1k
views
Moments of function of Poisson process
(I'm new to Poisson processes, so please edit if my terminology is incorrect.)
Edit: per comments, here is a (more) general version of the originally posted problem (which is now at the bottom, below ...
- 101
1
vote
1
answer
385
views
How fast does this Gaussian random walk move away from the origin?
Suppose $z_i$ are IID zero-centered $d$-dimensional Gaussian random variables with unit-trace covariance $\Sigma$ and $g(z_i)$ is the sum of its components.
Consider the following random walk:
$$x_s=\...
- 2,252
1
vote
2
answers
175
views
is there an interpretation to the inverse of $I-M$ in multitype branching process, where $M$ is the mean matrix?
Assume we have a multitype branching process, i.e., we have a mean matrix $M_{ij}$ and $M_{ij}$ is the expected count of generating $j$ from $i$ in one time step, i.e.:
$M_{ij} = \sum_{r} n(r,j)P(r | ...
1
vote
2
answers
277
views
Distribution of interarrival times for a special class of stochastic point processes
I am interested in Poisson-binomial stationary point processes (here on the real line) defined as follows. Let
$t_k=k/\lambda$, with $k\in\mathbb{Z}$ and $\lambda>0$,
$F_s(x)$ be a symmetric, ...
- 3,098
1
vote
1
answer
259
views
Test for OU-Process
Suppose that I'm given a sample from time-series $(x_n)_{n=1}^N$ and want to decide if it comes from an OU process or not. Is there a (rigorous) test I can use?
So far, everything I've seen is hand-...
- 5,405
1
vote
2
answers
772
views
Gibbs sampling step size
I have some data generated using MCMC methods and in particular Gibbs sampling. I computed the autocorrelation but I'm unsure how to determine how many samples to skip.
I'd like to determine that ...
- 87
1
vote
1
answer
229
views
Gaussian width of intersection of cube and ball in high-dimensional euclidean space
Let $d$ be a large positive integer and fix $r \ge 0$. Set $S := B_2^n \cap [-r,r]^d$, where $B_2^d$ is the euclidean unit-ball in $\mathbb R^d$. Finally, let $\omega(S)$ be the Gaussian width of $S$, ...
- 6,853
1
vote
1
answer
410
views
Occupation times for two-state Markov processes
Consider a two-state Markov process in continuous time, with states labelled $A$ and $B$. The transition rates for going from state $A$ to $B$, and state $B$ to $A$ are $\alpha$ and $\beta$ ...
1
vote
1
answer
519
views
The integral of a Gaussian process on a unit sphere
Suppose there exist a zero-mean Gaussian process $\mathbb{G} f_u$ indexed by $u \in \mathcal{S}^{p - 1}$ with known covariance $\mathrm{E} \big[ \mathbb{G} f_u \mathbb{G} f_v \big]$ when both $u$ and $...
- 331
1
vote
2
answers
302
views
how to derive stationary distribution of maximal entropy random walk
I was reading the paper 0810.4113v2, burda, which analyzed the stationary distribution maximal entropy random walk on the irregular lattice. I am confused on some of the steps.
Description:
The ...
- 211
1
vote
1
answer
207
views
An efficient method to find the MLE of the combination of two point processes
I have a point process defined in two parts as follows. Consider first the main process which we call $A$ which is homogeneous Poisson process with conditional intensity
$$\lambda(t) = \mu$$
For ...
- 3,377
1
vote
1
answer
294
views
Kalman Filter...Denoising measurement data to track objects
Hi Everyone,
I am about to implement a Kalman Filter in a software.
I found this very helpful article here:
http://bilgin.esme.org/BitsBytes/KalmanFilterforDummies.aspx
The example helps a lot, ...
- 11
1
vote
1
answer
93
views
An inequality relating $\ell_1$ distance of input and output of a Markov krnel
Let $K$ be a Markov kernel from $\mathcal{X}$ to $\mathcal{Y}$, i.e., $K(\cdot|x)$ is a probability measure on $\mathcal{Y}$ for all $x\in \mathcal{X}$.
Let $\mu$ and $\nu$ be two probability measures ...
- 1,109
1
vote
1
answer
199
views
Rademacher complexity for a family of bounded, nondecreasing functions?
Let $\{\phi_k\}_{k=1}^K$ be a family of functions mapping from an interval $[a, b]$ to $[-1, 1]$.
That is, $\phi_k \colon[ a,b] \to [-1, 1]$ are nondecreasing maps on some finite interval $[a, b] \...
- 420
1
vote
1
answer
216
views
Rademacher complexity of function class $(x,y) \mapsto 1[|yf(x)-\alpha| \ge \beta]$ in terms of $\alpha$, $\beta$, and Rademacher complexity of $F$
Let $X$ be a measurable space and let $P$ be a probability distribution on $X \times \{\pm 1\}$. Let $F$ be a function class on $X$, i.e., a collection of (measurable) functions from $X$ to $\mathbb R$...
- 6,853
1
vote
1
answer
221
views
Large deviation for empirical median
I found this exercise while reading some notes on Large Deviation Principle. This exercise is at the end of the very first chapter, including Cramer's Theorem and essentially nothing more (no Sanov ...
- 445
1
vote
1
answer
141
views
Central limit theorem for chi-squared random field on $\mathbb R^p$
Let $X:x \mapsto X(x)$ be a centered stationary Gaussian process on the $\Omega:=\mathbb R^p$, such that $X(x) \overset{d}{=}X(x')$ for all $x,x' \in \Omega$. Set $\sigma^2 := \mbox{Var}(X(0)) = \...
- 6,853
1
vote
1
answer
375
views
convergence of Bayesian posterior with non iid data
Let $(\epsilon_t)_t$ be a sequence of iid random variables, distributed according to the density $f:\mathbb{R}\to (0,\infty)$ and
$$
x_t = q( \theta^\star, x_1,x_2, \ldots, x_{t-1}) + \epsilon_t \,.
...
- 355
1
vote
1
answer
124
views
"Convergence speed" results for the Langevin process
The Langevin process is defined by the following stochastic differential equation:
$$ \dot X = - \nabla \phi + \sqrt 2 dW_t $$
Its equilibrium distribution is the following:
$$ p_\infty (x) \propto ...
1
vote
1
answer
142
views
Subclass of semimartingales for which all characteristics can be estimated?
I'm going to ask the question for Ito semimartingales rather than semimartingales in general, but more general answers would be great.
An Ito semimartingale is a martingale for which the ...
- 273
1
vote
0
answers
53
views
The limit ratio of two Markov Chain Probability
Suppose there are two given SDE in $\mathbb{R}^d$:
$$
\begin{align}
\left\{
\begin{aligned}
dX_t&=\begin{bmatrix}-\nabla V(X_t)+2\beta^{-1}v_F^\theta(X_t)\end{bmatrix}dt+\sqrt{2\beta^{-1}}dW_t,&...
- 303
1
vote
0
answers
112
views
A high probability bound for a Rademacher process
Let $\{x_i(t)\}_{i=1}^n$ be i.i.d. Gaussian processes for $t \in [0, T]$ with
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}[x_i(t)] & = 0, \quad \forall i \in [1 : n], \ t \in [0, T] \\
\mathbb{E}[x_i(s) x_i(t)] &...
- 81
1
vote
0
answers
39
views
Characteristic function of a Dirichlet Process
Suppose $P \sim \text{DP}(\alpha,G) $ where $G \sim N(0,1)$ is the base measure and $\alpha > 0$ is the concentration parameter. The stick breaking representation says that $P$ can be expressed as \...
- 11
1
vote
0
answers
83
views
Properties of max of many linear combinations of a multivariate normal vector and/or sum of top $k$ elements of a multivariate normal vector
Thank you in advance for your help!
I am interested in studying the following probability:
$$P\big[\max_{H \subset X,|H|=k} \sum_{i \in H} \mathbf{a}_i^T \mathbf{w} \ge 0 \big],$$
where $\mathbf{a}_i$ ...
- 11
1
vote
0
answers
68
views
(Anti-)concentration of gap between largest and second largest component of multivariate random gaussian vector
Let $n$ be a large positive integer and let $Y=(Y_1,\ldots,Y_n)$ be a zero-centered random $n$-dmensional real vector with covariance matrix $\Sigma$, an $n$-by-$n$ positive definite matrix with ...
- 6,853
1
vote
0
answers
49
views
semi-parametric regression
Suppose the observation $(X_1, Y_1), \ldots, (X_n, Y_n)$ satisfies the following semi-parametric model
$$Y_t = m(X_t, \alpha) + \sigma(X_t, \beta) U_t,$$
where $U_t$ is independent with $X_t$ with ...
- 331
1
vote
0
answers
99
views
Covering number after projection
In these lecture notes on Statistical Learning Theory we find the following definitions for covering numbers:
Definition. Let $(\mathcal{W}, d)$ be a metric space and $\mathcal{F} \subset \mathcal{W}$...
1
vote
1
answer
170
views
Stationary distribution of Markov Chain with departure
I have a Markov Chain of $N$ states. Such states represent the energy levels in a molecule.
The states' connectivity is as follows:
States $j\in\{0,\ldots,N\}$ transition to $k\in\{\max(j-M,0),...,\...
- 151
1
vote
0
answers
61
views
For 1-NN (Next Neighbor), what is the expectation of the largest probability of being the nearest neighbor?
Suppose we sample $n$ points $X_1,X_2,...,X_n$ independently from a distribution $P_X$ on $[0,1]^d$. For a new point $X$ independently from $P_X$, we find its nearest neighbor in $X_1,X_2,...,X_n$. ...
- 11
1
vote
1
answer
259
views
Conditional Expectation Relative to "Random Time" - Consistency of the Substitution Rule
I am thinking of the following situation:
On a probability space $\left( \Omega, \mathscr{F}, \cal{P} \right)$ with arbitrary structure, suppose we are given a random function (as it is called in the ...
- 75
1
vote
0
answers
44
views
Validating a probability density distribution forecast model for a Markov process
Let's say we have a Markov process $X_t$, and we come up with a forecast model that takes some information from outside world and says: "value $X_{t+1}$ has probability density distribution $P_t(x)$". ...
- 93
1
vote
0
answers
101
views
How to fit a stochastic matrix to given data.?
Given a data sequence of noisy observations of a 3-state Markov chain $X$ -- $y_1$,$y_2$,...$y_n$, with two transition matrices $A_1$ and $A_2$ corresponding to different regions (**) in the (unit) ...
1
vote
0
answers
251
views
Inflated independent samples for Monte Carlo estimation
In my particular problem, running an MCMC is too expensive, so I'm looking for a simple MC estimator, which would partially inherit the correlated samples of MCMC, yet would not require computing ...
- 101
1
vote
0
answers
132
views
Eigen value distribution of autocorrelated Wishart matrix
Suppose the matrix W is constructed as $W=XX^T$ where $X_i(t) = \phi_i X_i(t-1) + a_i(t)$, and $a_i(t)$ ~ $N(0,1)$. I am interested in knowing the eigen value distribution of W. My google search on ...
- 11
0
votes
2
answers
261
views
What mathematical formalism might be used to disprove natural selection, on the basis that there are too many independent genetic parameters? [closed]
I have nagging doubts that the random genetic mutation process of natural selection is sufficient to explain evolution, even when coupled with sexual selection (Darwin proposed that evolution is ...
- 41
0
votes
1
answer
165
views
About another potential characterization of normal numbers
Normal numbers, in a nutshell, are real numbers that have a "uniform" distribution of digits in standard numeration systems (binary, decimal, and so on.) You can find a formal definition and ...
- 3,098
0
votes
1
answer
101
views
multimodal circular model
Hi, can someone provide me with a list of probability models that is akin to Von Mises but consists multiple (potentially infinite) modes that takes into account attractors in the entire 2-D spatial ...
- 61
0
votes
1
answer
177
views
Under which conditions Mean Square Continuity implies Sample Continuity for Gaussian Processes?
First, let us give the setting.
Let $(\Omega, \Sigma, \mathbf{P})$ be a probability space, let $T$ be some interval of time, and let $X: T \times \Omega \rightarrow S$ be a stochastic process.
By Mean ...
- 141