All Questions
Tagged with pr.probability martingales
210 questions
2
votes
0
answers
125
views
A result on absolute mean of a stopped supermartingale
The reason of posting the following problem here is that I heard that it is a result from some paper.
Let $(X_n, \mathscr{F_n}), n \geq 0$ be a super martingale and $T$ an $\{F_n\}$-stopping time a....
user56932
2
votes
0
answers
519
views
asymptotic variance of sample autocorrelation of two iid random variables
I am trying to prove that the variance of the sample lag-1 autocorrelation
$$\hat{\rho}=\frac{\sum_{t=1}^n(x_t-\bar{x})(x_{t-1}-\bar{x})}{\sum_{t=1}^n(x_{t-1}-\bar{x})^2}$$
for an i.i.d. R.V is ...
- 171
2
votes
0
answers
134
views
Supermartingale inequality on a particular event
Say, I have a supermartingale $Y_t$ with respect to the filtration $F_t$. Let $T$ and $S$ two stopping times greater than $t>0$ such that on the event $A$, $T>S$, then since $Y_t$ is a ...
- 23
1
vote
1
answer
83
views
Integral of $M^\text{*} - M$ with respect to $M^\text{*}$ is zero for $M^\text{*}$ the running maximum of $M$ a continuous local martingale
Given $M$ a continuous local martingale, and $M^\text{*} = \sup_{0 \leq s \leq t} M_s$ its running maximum, we consider the finite variation integral
$$
I_T:= \int_0^T (M^\text{*}_s - M_s) \, \text{d}...
- 113
1
vote
1
answer
185
views
Sum of $X_k$ with $\mathbb{P}(X_k=\pm 1) = 1/2\pm 1/(2\sqrt{k})$
Let $\{X_k\}$ be a sequence of mutually independent random variables with
\begin{align}
\mathbb{P}(X_k = 1) & = \frac{1}{2} + \frac{1}{2\sqrt{k}},
\\
\mathbb{P}(X_k = -1) & = \frac{1}{2} - \...
- 269
1
vote
1
answer
182
views
Is a stopped Ito-integral integrable if the Ito integrand is only square-integrable on an open interval?
Assume a filtered probability space $(\Omega,\{\mathcal F_t\}_{t\in[0;T)}, \mathbb P)$ with an $\mathbb R^n$-valued Brownian motion $\{W_t\}_{t\in[0;T)}$ and the filtration $\{\mathcal F_t\}_{t\in[0;T)...
- 335
1
vote
1
answer
361
views
Length of longest subsequence as a martingale
Consider a sequence of continuous random variables $(X_n)_{n \geq 1}$. Let $Y_n$ denote the longest increasing subsequence in the tuple $(X_1,\dots,X_n)$. Does $Y_n$ form a martingale? If not, can I ...
- 1,432
1
vote
2
answers
316
views
Martingale part of the discontinuous put payoff
I need the martingale part of the put payoff (not $C^2$..). Where $S_t=exp(\sigma W_t -\frac{\sigma^2t}{2})$
$d[(S_t -K)^+ ]$ ??
I guess I need to use local times but how?
- 111
1
vote
2
answers
3k
views
Is stopped brownian motion not a martingale?
In page 45 of the book "Financial Derivatives In Theory and Practice by P.J.Hunt and J.E.Kennedy, it seems to me that the author says the stopped Brownian Motion is not a martingale as follows.
(...
- 19
1
vote
1
answer
1k
views
Predictable quadratic Variation <.> has same intervals of constancy as the process
From
Revuz and Yor - Continuous Martingales and Brownian Motion 1999
Chapter IV Proposition 1.13
it is proven, that for a continuous local martingale $M_t$ the intervals of constancy ...
- 257
1
vote
1
answer
411
views
a dominated convergence theorem for martingale (II)
The question is presented in
https://mathoverflow.net/questions/155392/a-dominated-convergence-theorem-for-martingale
Let $\{(X_1^n, X_2^n)\}_n$ be a sequence of martingales defined some probability ...
- 1,835
1
vote
1
answer
60
views
Reverse Doob’s maximal inequality for bounded martingales
Consider the set of discrete or continuous time $L^\infty$-bounded martingales $X$ with $X_0 = 0$ almost surely. Here $L^\infty$-bounded means $\|X\|_{\infty} := \sup_t \mathbb \|X_t\|_{L^\infty(\...
- 6,215
1
vote
1
answer
129
views
A martingale puzzle about sum of expected squared bounds
I'm trying to get one of those "with $1-\delta$ probability, the following holds"-style bounds, and the following martingale problem looks solvable by some Freedman or Bernstein-style bound, ...
- 353
1
vote
1
answer
464
views
A Lévy process is a semimartingale proof
I have to prove that a Lévy process is a semimartingale.
In general we say that $X$ is a semimartingale if it is an adapted process such that, for each
$t ≥ 0$,
$$X (t) = X (0) + M(t) + C(t)$$
where $...
- 95
1
vote
1
answer
139
views
Characterization of Brownian motion: processes with right-continuous paths
I am looking for a reference with a proof for the following fact:
If a right-continuous martingale $(X_r)_{ r \geq 0}$ is such that $X_0=0,(X^2_r-r)_r,(X_r^3-3rX_r)_r,(X_r^4-6rX_r^2+3r^2)_r$ are ...
- 573
1
vote
1
answer
140
views
Does a sequence that verifies the assumptions of a square integrable martingale on some event need to be convergent on this event?
I came across this claim by reading some literature on stochastic approximation.
Let $(\Omega, \mathcal{A}, \mathbb{P}$) be a probability space, $(\mathcal{F}_n)$ a filtration on it. Let $(\epsilon_{n}...
- 115
1
vote
1
answer
109
views
Weaker than martingale condition
Let $\mathcal{F}_n$ be a filtration and $S_n$ be a sequence such that $\mathbb{E}[S_n-S_{n-1}|\mathcal{F}_{n-2}]=0$ for all $n$. This condition is similar to the martingale condition but the ...
- 31
1
vote
1
answer
284
views
Martingale derivation by direct calculation
I'm reading the proof of a theorem and stumbled across the following derivation which I cannot replicate myself.
Let $W(t)$ be a $Q$-martingale and be given by $W(t) = B(t) + \mu t$ with $B(t)$ a ...
- 11
1
vote
1
answer
419
views
Proof of the existence of the covariation of a continuous local martingale presented in the book of Kallenberg
Let
$T>0$
$(\Omega,\mathcal A,\operatorname P)$ be a probability space
$(\mathcal F_t)_{t\in[0,\:T]}$ be a complete filtration on $(\Omega,\mathcal A)$
$M$ be an almost surely continuous local $\...
- 167
1
vote
1
answer
159
views
$M_t = f(B_{t \wedge \tau}) + (t \wedge \tau)$ local martingale, $\textbf{E}^x[\tau] = f(x)?$
Suppose $D \subset \mathbb{R}^d$ is a domain and $f: \overline{D} \to \mathbb{R}$ is a continuous function, $C^2$ in $D$, satisfying$$f(x) = 0\text{ for }x\in \partial D,$$$${1\over2} \Delta f(x) = -1 ...
user80013
1
vote
1
answer
239
views
Concentration bound for a martingale-like setting (the expected difference decreases as the sequence increases)
I went through several martingales concentration bounds, but none of them fit the settings I am interested in, which is the following. Suppose I have a sequence of nonnegative random variables $0=Y_{0}...
- 225
1
vote
1
answer
347
views
Can we give any upper bound on $E[\max_{n \leq N} X_n]$ in terms of $\max_{n \leq N} E[X_n]$
Consider a sequence $\{X_n\}$ of $N$ random variables. Can we give any upper bound on $E[\max_{n \leq N} X_n]$ in terms of $\max_{n \leq N} E[X_n]$. I think in general it is not possible.
If $\{X_n\}$...
user56932
1
vote
1
answer
687
views
Supremum in a Markov chain model
A Markov chain $X$ with finite state space $\{1,2,\cdots,N\}$ is defined on a probability space $(\Omega, P, \mathcal{F})$ equiped with filtration $\{\mathcal{F}_t\}$. And we assume that we can reach ...
- 21
1
vote
2
answers
789
views
Uniform law of large numbers for martingale difference
Let $\xi_{tn}(\theta),t=1,\dots,n$ be a real-valued martingale difference array indexed by a parameter $\theta \in \Theta \subset R$, where the set $\Theta$ is compact. Now, for all fixed $\theta \in \...
- 13
1
vote
0
answers
125
views
Can we construct close discrete martingales if their terminal marginal laws are close?
As no answer or comment to Can we construct close martingales if their terminal marginal laws are close? we consider a simplified version (discrete-time) as below:
Let $M=(M_k)_{0\le k\le n}$ be a ...
- 1,399
1
vote
0
answers
156
views
is there a discrete version of Dambis Dubins Schwarz Theorem
Theorem (Dambis, Dubins-Schwarz). If $M$ is a $\left(\mathscr{F}_t, P\right)$-continuous martingale vanishing at 0 and such that $\langle M, M\rangle_{\infty}=\infty$ and if we set
$$
T_t=\inf \left\{...
- 121
1
vote
0
answers
87
views
Normal approximation of martingale difference
Apologies in advance if the question is not precise (or silly), I am not a probabilist by profession. I have the following question:
Let $(X_n)_{n \geq 1}$ be a martingale difference sequence. Assume ...
- 2,207
1
vote
0
answers
182
views
Hardy's inequality proof using Doob's inequalities
Consider a probability space $([0,1],\mathcal{B}([0,1],\lambda),p>1$ and $f \in L^p(]0,\infty[).$
We want to prove Hardy's inequality using martingale theory and Doob's maximal inequalities.
Let $\...
- 573
1
vote
0
answers
240
views
Where to submit a new proof of the continuous martingale convergence theorem?
There were various proofs of the discrete martingale convergence theorem, but as far as I know there is only one proof of the continuous version of this theorem using the up-crossing lemma.
I wrote a ...
- 11
1
vote
0
answers
47
views
$\exists c \in\mathbb{R}_+^*,\forall p,r\in \mathbb{R}_+,E[|X_{p+r}-X_r||\mathcal{F}_r] \leq c$ implies the optional stopping theorem
Consider a integrable submartingale $(X_r)_{r \in \mathbb{R}_+}$ relative to $(\mathcal{F}_{r})_{r \in \mathbb{R}_+}$ and such that $$\exists c \in \mathbb{R}_+^*,\forall k \in \mathbb{N},E[|X_{k+1}-...
- 249
1
vote
0
answers
53
views
A semimartingale interpolation problem
This question is a direct extension of this one.
Let $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},(\mathcal{F}_t)_{t\geq 0},\mathbb{P})$ be a stochastic basis and let $N\in\mathbb{Z}^+$, $T>0$, $\{t_n\}_{n=1}^{N}$ be a ...
- 77
1
vote
0
answers
108
views
Decomposition of reversed processes
Consider a reversed filtration $(\mathcal{F}_k)_{k \geq 0} $ $(\mathcal{F}_{k+1} \subset\mathcal{F}_k),$ $(X_k)_{k \geq0}$ is a processes in $L^1,\mathcal{F}_k$-adapted.
Is it possible to decompose $...
- 249
1
vote
0
answers
80
views
Almost supermartingale and a.s convergence
After reading a paper on the convergence of almost supermartingale, the following result appeared:
If $(X_k)_k,(Y_k)_k,(W_k)_k$ are three $(\mathcal{F}_k)$-adapted processes taking values in $\mathbb{...
- 249
1
vote
0
answers
526
views
Martingales associated with heat equation
I am trying to learn the connection between Brownian motion and heat equation (in the spirit of Feynman-Kac, for example, here). I read (Michael E. Taylor's PDE book, Volume II, Chapter 11, ...
- 1,407
1
vote
0
answers
747
views
Local martingale but not martingale
For a 3-dimensional Brownian motion $B = (B_t, t ≥ 0)$ and $x ∈ \mathbb{R}^3 \backslash \{0\}$ define the process
$Y = (Y_t, t ≥ 0)$ via $Y_t =\frac{1}{|B_t+x|}$ how come this is a continuous local ...
1
vote
0
answers
43
views
Understanding the space of parameters in a covariance matrix of conditional expectations
Let $\{(Y_n, Z_n)\}_{n=-\infty}^{n=\infty}$ be a zero-mean jointly stationary Gaussian process where $Z$ takes values in $\mathbb{R}$ and $Y$ takes values in $\mathbb{R}^k$. Here, $n$ runs over the ...
- 1,269
1
vote
0
answers
394
views
Expected number of games for three-player gambler's ruin
Three gamblers each start with $a$, $b$ and $c$ chips, respectively.
In each round of the game, a gambler is selected uniformly at random
to give up one chip, and one of the remaining two gamblers is ...
- 1,432
1
vote
0
answers
265
views
Wiener isometry for semimartingales
Suppose that $Y_t$ is a special square-integrable $\mathbb{R}$-valued semi-martingale and let $\mathcal{L}^2(Y)$ denote the set of $Y$-predictable processes satisfying
$$
\mathbb{E}\left[
\int_0^{\...
- 5,405
1
vote
0
answers
58
views
Martingales limit theorems (reference)
I have a sequence of processes $\{X^N(t)\}_{t\in [0,T]}$, $N\in\mathbb N$ such that
$X^N(t)=x+M^N(t)$,
where $M^N(t)$ is a martingale with expectation $0$ and with quadratic variation $<M^N>(t)$ ...
- 139
1
vote
1
answer
237
views
Poisson kernel, expectation, an absolute value comes in
See here.
Let $d = 2$, and consider the domain $D = \mathbb{H}$, the upper half-plane. Let $W_t = (X_t, Y_t)$. We see that for any $\theta \in \mathbb{R}$ and any $t \ge 0$, we have$$E^{(x, y)}\...
- 13
1
vote
0
answers
309
views
Horizontal vs Vertical sides Exit from a Rectangle for simple symmetric Random Walk on $\textbf{Z}^{2}$
Consider simple symmetric random walk, $X_{n} = (X_{n}^{(1)}, X_{n}^{(2)})$ with $X_0= (0,0)$, on the 2 dimensional integer lattice, $\textbf{Z}^{2}$.
Let $T_{M}, T_{N}$ be the smallest $n$ such ...
user71202
1
vote
1
answer
229
views
Tail inequality for orthomartingales/martingale difference random fields
It is known that if $(S_i= \sum_{j \leqslant i }X_i, \mathcal F_i)$ is a martingale,
then for each
$
\beta>1$, $\delta\in (0,\beta-1)$ and $\lambda>0$, and each integer $N \geqslant 1$, the ...
- 3,958
1
vote
0
answers
218
views
question about Doob-Meyer decomposition
Given a filtered probability space and let $X$ be a cadlag local martingale defined on this space. Let $V$ be a cadlag supermartingale and assume we know the following decomposition:
$$V_t=V_0+\int_0^...
- 1,835
1
vote
0
answers
1k
views
What conditions on a filtration guarantee that a (sub)martingale has a continuous modification?
There is a theorem as follows:
Theorem. Let $\mathcal{F}_t$ be a filtration which is right-continuous and complete. Assume $M_t$ is a submartingale adapted to $\mathcal{F}_t$ such that $t \mapsto \...
- 6,287
0
votes
3
answers
639
views
Non-smooth Ito lemma for semi-martingales
Is there an extension of Ito's Lemma where $X_t$ is a semi-martingale and $f:\mathbb{R}^d \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ is a function which is not smooth?
I've been looking but have not found much, any ...
- 5,405
0
votes
1
answer
57
views
Lower bounding an alternating series with signs from a martingale difference sequence
Let $\epsilon_n \in \{-1, 1\}$ be a martingale difference sequence, in the sense that
$$M_n := \sum_{i = 0}^n \epsilon_i$$
is a martingale.
We assume $\epsilon_0 = \pm 1$ with probability $\frac{1}{2}$...
- 6,215
0
votes
2
answers
60
views
Do continuous martingales satisfy this nice terminal inequality?
Let $X$ be a continuous, non negative martingale on $[0, 1]$ with $X_0 = x_0$ a.s. for some $x_0 \in \mathbb R$. Assume further that $X_1$ admits a probability density function. Is it true that the ...
- 6,215
0
votes
1
answer
315
views
When is every Levy martingale of a process a continuous martingale?
Let $X_t$ be a real valued stochastic process, and $\mathcal H_t$ the the natural filtration of $X_t$.
Under what conditions on $X$ does the following statement hold?
For every $\mathcal H_\infty$-...
- 6,215
0
votes
1
answer
2k
views
Martingale convergence theorem in Polya's urn
I want to get checked if my attempt is okay.
First off, let me shortly describe what Polya's urn is:
A certain urn initially contains a red and a blue ball. We now repeatedly do the following : we ...
0
votes
1
answer
64
views
Sharpening Doob’s upcrossing inequality for Brownian motion
Note: This question is heavily related to a series of posts ([1], [2]) by user GJC20.
Provided a martingale $X$ in continuous-time, Doob's upcrosssing inequality states:
If $U(a,b)$ denotes the number ...
- 6,215