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Theory and applications of probability and stochastic processes: e.g. central limit theorems, large deviations, stochastic differential equations, models from statistical mechanics, queuing theory.

3 votes

Asymptotics for minimum of a sequence of random variables

For $g(n)$ a decreasing function, we have $\limsup Y_n/g(n)\geq 1$ if and only if $Y_n> g(n)(1-\epsilon)$ infinitely often. Based on an approach suggested by Aleksei Kulikov, if $n \in [2^k, 2^{k+1}]$ …
Will Sawin's user avatar
  • 149k
2 votes
Accepted

The gacha stamp collector’s problem

One can improve the $\log n$ factor by at most a constant. Divide the $N \times N$ board into $n\times n $ squares. (Even if $n$ is not a divisor of $N$, one can divide at most a quarter of the board …
Will Sawin's user avatar
  • 149k
7 votes
Accepted

Is a random circle rotation weak mixing almost surely?

No, $$ \frac{1}{n} \sum_{k=1}^{n}| \mu (A) \cap T^{-k}(B) - \mu(A)\mu(B)|$$ is a sum of i.i.d random varables, since $T^{-k}$ are i.i.d uniform circle rotations so by the law of large numbers it conve …
Will Sawin's user avatar
  • 149k
2 votes

Why is $\mathbb R^{\mathbb N}$ not high-dimensional enough?

Often in mathematics, especially in applied mathematics, we have some finite object we care about, and we choose to study it by putting it in a sequence and studying the limit of the sequence, which i …
Will Sawin's user avatar
  • 149k
1 vote

Poisson binomial conjecture

I have an approach to solve the problem for $\gamma>2/n$, which can perhaps be adapated to work for smaller $\gamma$. Consider first the optimization problem: minimize $\mathbb P( X \geq k) $ where $X …
Will Sawin's user avatar
  • 149k
5 votes
Accepted

Concentration of sample median for iid Gaussians

I can do a somewhat worse estimate of $e^{ - n t^2/4}$. If I calculated right, the estimate you state is approximately true for $t$ small but fails for $t$ large, but if I got things the wrong way aro …
Will Sawin's user avatar
  • 149k
16 votes
Accepted

How rich is the richest person in a society satisfying the Pareto principle?

Let $F(x) =\int_{1-x}^{\infty} W(t) dt$. Then the inequality is $F(\rho x ) \geq \alpha F(x)$ and we also have that $\frac{dF}{dx} (\frac{1}{2}) = 1$ and $F$ is convex down. In particular for $x=\frac …
Daniele Tampieri's user avatar
4 votes

Randomly fixing elements and transcendence degree

Let me give a partial answer ignoring issues of inseparability. The map $\mathbb A^{m-j}_{\mathbb F_q(x_1,\dots,x_j)} \to \mathbb A^n_{\mathbb F_q(x_1,\dots,x_j)}$ has image of dimension $r$. If $\mat …
Will Sawin's user avatar
  • 149k
3 votes

What is the expected size of the smallest hitting set?

A greedy algorithm lets us pick an element that it's at least $\lceil j n/N \rceil $ of the sets, leaving us with at most $n- \lceil j n/N \rceil $ subsets of size $j$ of an $N-1$-element set. We can …
Will Sawin's user avatar
  • 149k
10 votes
Accepted

How to optimally bet on a biased coin?

The strategy suggested in Geoffry Irving's answer of betting the maximum amount each time is correct, but the argument given is incomplete. The expected final amount, conditional on the outcomes of th …
Will Sawin's user avatar
  • 149k
13 votes
Accepted

Can a non integrable random variable satisfy a strong law of large numbers principle?

No. If $\mathbb E[X^+]=\infty$ then $$\infty = \mathbb E[ \lfloor X^+\rfloor ] =\sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \mathbb P(X \geq n) = \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \mathbb P(X_n\geq n)$$ and the events $X_n \geq n$ are ind …
Will Sawin's user avatar
  • 149k
6 votes
Accepted

Free probability: A unitary group heuristic for the relationship between additive free convo...

I have a suggestion that seems to bring the two sides to be compared much closer together. Take a block-diagonal matrix $B$ with $k$ blocks each a copy of $A$. This has the same eigenvalue measure as …
Will Sawin's user avatar
  • 149k
3 votes
Accepted

Reference request and clarification for Central Limit Theorem for complex random variables

On the "Furthermore": The central limit theorem for vectors involves the variance-covariance matrix. Let $Z = X+iY$ be a complex random variable (with mean $0$ for simplicity). If $X,Y$ have variance- …
Will Sawin's user avatar
  • 149k
2 votes

Concentration of minimum Hamming distance between $N$ points sampled iid from uniform distri...

A trivial lower bound is $$p_{N,n,\gamma} \geq 1 - \binom{N}{2} \mathbb P ( d_H (x_1,x_2)< \gamma n) \geq 1 - \binom{N}{2} ( \gamma^{-\gamma} (1-\gamma)^{-(1-\gamma) } 2^{-1} ) ^n $$ with the last i …
Will Sawin's user avatar
  • 149k
10 votes

Kolmogorov 0-1 law counter examples for almost independent variables

Let $(Y_1,\dots, Y_k)$ be a random $k$-tuple uniformly distributed in $(\mathbb R/\mathbb Z)^k$. Let $X_i = \sum_{j=1}^k i^j Y_j \in \mathbb R/\mathbb Z$. Then the $X_i$ are $k$-wise independent (and …
Will Sawin's user avatar
  • 149k

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