All Questions
Tagged with pr.probability martingales
210 questions
6
votes
0
answers
183
views
Distribution of the stopping time of an autoregressive sequence
Consider $e_t$ being i.i.d. uniformly chosen from $\pm 1$. Let $\eta$ be a small positive constant. What is the distribution of $T$ such that $\eta^{0.5} (1+\eta)^T W_T$ first hits $\pm 1$, in which
$$...
- 1,127
6
votes
0
answers
220
views
Reference request: Stochastic integration and martingale theory on the whole real line
I'm looking for a thorough treatment of stochastic integration and/or martingale theory on the whole real line, i.e. a way to construct a Brownian motion $(B_s)_{s \in \mathbb{R}}$ (if a two-sided BM ...
- 617
5
votes
4
answers
1k
views
Examples of discrete time martingales
In probability, a martingale is given by a sequence of integrable
random variables $(S_n)$ and an increasing sequence of
$\sigma$-algebras ${\cal F}_n$ such that
$S_n$ is ${\cal F}_n$-...
- 18.7k
5
votes
1
answer
652
views
Proof of Pinelis (1992) - Banach space inequalities
I am reading Pinelis "An approach to inequalities for the distributions of infinite -dimensional martingales" and cannot follow his proof of Theorem 3:
Let $(f_n)$ be a martingale in a separable ...
- 619
5
votes
2
answers
311
views
A comparison of diffusions
Consider two diffusions given by
$$X_j(t)=\int_0^t a_j(s,X_j(s))\,dW_s$$
for $j=1,2$ and $t\ge 0$, where $W_\cdot$ is a standard Wiener process/Brownian motion and the $a_j$'s are smooth enough ...
- 128k
5
votes
1
answer
165
views
Is there an i.i.d sequence in the unit cube $[-1,1]^d$ with $\mathbb E \left[ \Big \| \sum_{i=1}^N X_N \Big \|_\infty\right] = \sqrt {dN}$?
There are loads of concentration results for sums of scalar-valued independent sums $X_1,X_2,\ldots, X_N$ with $\mathbb E[X_n]=0$. For example Hoeffding's Inequality says if all $|X_1|\le 1$ then $\...
- 1,955
5
votes
1
answer
241
views
Is it possible to prove concentration bounds from optional stopping theorem?
It is known that the optional stopping theorem from martingale theory is a very powerful theorem in probability theory in statistics.
I have heard of a probability course at Stanford where ...
- 103
5
votes
1
answer
4k
views
When is the limit of Martingales a Martingale?
I have a sequence of continuous time random variables $X_n(t)$ where $t \in [0,1]$. Suppose that there is a filtration $F_t$ such that for each $n$, $X_n$ is a martingale with respect to this ...
- 195
5
votes
1
answer
123
views
Convergence of conditional second moments
Let $(\Omega, \mathcal{A},P)$ be a probability space, and let $(\mathcal{F}_k)_{k \geq 1}$ be a filtration which converges to $\mathcal{A}$. I suppose it is true that
$$
E \left( \big(E \left( X | \...
- 2,207
5
votes
1
answer
208
views
Expected supremum of normalised random walk
Let $X^i\in \mathbb R^d$ be iid. random variables for $i=1$ to $n$.
Assume $\mathbb E[X^i]=0$ and the covariance matrix $\mathbb C[X^i] = \mathbb E[X^iX^{iT}] = I$ is the identity matrix.
Define $S^k=...
5
votes
2
answers
642
views
Examples of a continuous martingale with $E[\sup\limits_{0\leq s\leq t} |M_s|]=\infty$?
A local martingale is a martingale iff it is in the class DL.
The condition: for every $t\in[0,\infty)$
$$E[\sup\limits_{0\leq s\leq t} |M_s|]<\infty\tag1$$
guarantees a local martingale $M$ is ...
- 383
5
votes
1
answer
350
views
Can an a.s. non constant continuous martingale be differentiable with nonzero probability?
Let $M$ be a continuous martingale such that almost surely, the sample paths of $M$ are not constant.
Question: Is it true that $M$ is almost surely not differentiable?
- 6,215
5
votes
1
answer
1k
views
Supremum of a martingale
Let $(X_n)$ be a martingale. What can be said about the distribution of its maximum over a window of fixed length:
$$M_n = \max_{n-10 \leq k \leq n} X_k$$ or about the "range" over a window:
$$R_n = \...
- 587
5
votes
1
answer
479
views
Stieltjes integrals of predictable processes
I am looking for a direct proof of the fact that, roughly speaking, if $S=S_0+A+M$ is an $L^2$ semimartingale, and $M$ (the martingale part) has the martingale representation property, then for any ...
- 71
5
votes
0
answers
543
views
Vector martingale concentration
Let $\varepsilon_1, \dots, \varepsilon_N$ be a martingale difference sequence in $R^d$ with $\|\varepsilon_n\| \le B_n, a.s.$ for each $n=1,\dots,N$. Do we have some Azuma-type concentration ...
- 719
5
votes
0
answers
653
views
Explicit martingale representation for a Brownian bridge
Let $W$ denote a Wiener process, $\displaystyle M_t = \max_{0 \le s \le t} W_s$ its running maximum. The martingale representation of $M$ is known explicitly:
$$M_T = \sqrt{\frac{2T} \pi} + \int_0^T ...
- 341
4
votes
5
answers
2k
views
Martingales and Betting Strategies
Does anyone know of a good introduction to the theory of martingales and betting strategies from the point of view of statistics and/or probability theory? I'm looking for something basic, with lots ...
4
votes
1
answer
3k
views
The only continuous martingales with stationary increments are Brownian motions
I know that the above statement is true, but I can't demonstrate it.
It's a pretty powerful theorem, here is its mathematical formulation:
Theorem: The only continuous martingales with stationary ...
- 41
4
votes
2
answers
1k
views
Supermartingales and convergence
These feel like basic enough questions, but I don't know where to find the answer.
Let $X_1,X_2,X_3,\dots$ be a supermartingale such that $|X_{n+1} - X_n| < K$ for all $n$ ($K$ fixed). Does the ...
- 4,728
4
votes
1
answer
1k
views
Does variants of Bernstein and Freedman concentration inequalities exist with NO uniform bound on the range of RV or martingale differences
A classic formulation of the Bernstein inequality (from Wikipedia) is as follow:
Let $X_1, \ldots, X_n$ be independent zero-mean random variables. Suppose that $|X_i|\leq M$ almost surely, for all $i$...
- 53
4
votes
1
answer
443
views
Uniform martingale convergence of Radon-Nikodym derivatives of a convex set of probabilities
Cross posted at MSE here. I'm hoping someone here can help complete zhoraster's answer. Any hints or references are appreciated.
Let $(\Omega, \mathcal{F})$ be a measurable space equipped with a ...
- 869
4
votes
1
answer
2k
views
Distribution of running maximum of a local martingale
Let $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \mathbb{P}, \mathcal{F}_t)$ be a given
probability space with usual conditions, on which $W$ is a standard
Brownian motion. For $x \ge 0$, consider
$$X(t) = x + \int_0^t \...
- 1,399
4
votes
2
answers
2k
views
Is the truncated Brownian motion of the class DL?
Let $W$ be a standard Brownian motion under given probability space.
For a given constant $a$, $W^a$ is a truncated Brownian motion by stopping time
$T^a = \inf(t>0:W(t) = a)$. That is, $W^a(t) = ...
- 1,399
4
votes
2
answers
373
views
Another curious martingale
This is a natural follow up question to A curious martingale.
Does there exist an almost surely continuous martingale that converges in probability to $+\infty$?
Note: We say a process $X_t$ converges ...
- 6,215
4
votes
1
answer
677
views
If the moving average of a process is a martingale, is the process a martingale?
Problem set up:
Let $\mathcal F_t$ be a filtration satisfying the usual conditions. Let $T > 0$ be a fixed real number, and define the filtration $\mathcal H_t := \mathcal F_{T + t}$.
Suppose a ...
- 6,215
4
votes
1
answer
302
views
Zero-one law for an independence-like structure
I am a number theorist by profession, so apologies if the answer to this question is "trivially true" or "trivially false".
Let $(\Omega, \mathcal{A}, P)$ be a (non-atomic) probability space. Let $(\...
- 2,207
4
votes
1
answer
555
views
Conditional Form of Rosenthal's Inequality
Rosenthal's Inequality as stated in the book "Martingale Limit Theory and Its Application" by Hall and Heyde states the following:
If $\{S_i, \mathcal{F}_i, 1\leq i \leq n\}$ is a martingale and $2\...
- 289
4
votes
1
answer
441
views
Stochastic integration by parts to obtain Kailath Segall identity for iterated stochastic integrals?
If $(M_t)_{t \geq 0}$ is a continuous local martingale, one can define the iterated integrals $I_0=1$, $I_1(t)=M_t$ and for $n \geq 2$ $$I_{n}(t) = \int_0^t I_{n-1} (s) \mathrm{d} M_s.$$ By noting ...
- 235
4
votes
1
answer
225
views
concentration inequality for $d$-dimensional martingale
Are any concentration inequality available for $d$-dimensional martingale. It is easy to find such inequality using the inequalities for single dimension, but that will contain the dimension $d$ in ...
- 317
4
votes
1
answer
383
views
initial condition of a diffusion approximation
I am trying to prove that a certain sequence of Markov chains $x^N_k$ converges towards a diffusion process. The invariant measure of $x^N$ is $\pi^N$ and the Markov chain $x^N$ is started in ...
- 2,133
4
votes
1
answer
66
views
Expectation bounds on supremum of family of martingales
Suppose I fix a filtered probability space $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \mathbb{F}, P)$ and on it a Brownian motion $B$. Let $\tau_\alpha$ denote a set of stopping times which satisfies $\sup_\alpha \tau_\...
- 143
4
votes
1
answer
262
views
Bounded density for diffusions with diffusion coefficients bounded away from $0$
Consider a diffusion given by
$$X_t=\int_0^t a(s,X_s)\,dW_s$$
for $t\ge 0$, where $W_\cdot$ is a standard Wiener process/Brownian motion and $a$ is a smooth enough positive function bounded away from $...
- 128k
4
votes
1
answer
594
views
Martingales and intersection of random walks
Let $G=(V,E)$ be a graph with $n$ vertices. Consider a pair of independent simple random walks $(X,Y)$ on the graph, each of length $L$ starting from a node $v \in V$. We denote a length-$L$ random ...
- 519
4
votes
1
answer
456
views
Weaker version of the martingale convergence theorem
Let $\mathcal{A}_n$ be a sequence of finite sigma-algebras, let $\mathcal{B}_{q,p}= \sigma(\mathcal{A}_n, q \geq n \geq p )$. Moreover, we suppose $\mathcal{A}_k \subset \mathcal{B}_{\infty,p}$ for ...
- 73
4
votes
0
answers
80
views
Does this filtration have a name?
In the context of Ethier&Kurtz Markov Processes: Characterization and Convergence (Chapter 4, equation (3.2)) as well as the two papers Martingale problems for conditional distributions of Markov ...
- 183
4
votes
0
answers
143
views
For a martingale $f_0,f_1,\ldots $ how can we bound $P(\frac{1}{n} \|f_n\| \le 1$ for all $ n \ge N)$?
Suppose $f_0,f_1, \ldots$ is a martingale (or i.i.d sequence) in $\mathbb R^d$ with $f_0=0$ and all $\|f_n - f_{n-1}\| \le L$ say. There are many concentration results for the initial segment of the ...
- 1,955
4
votes
0
answers
238
views
Does Novikov condition imply BMO martingale?
Let $(\Omega,\mathbb{F},P)$ be a complete probability space, equipped with a filtration $\mathcal{F}_t, 0 \le t < \infty$. Consider a continuous local martingale $(X_t, \mathcal{F}_t)$ such that $...
- 195
4
votes
0
answers
274
views
Some constants in Martingale Stein inequality
Dear all,
the following is a special case of Stein inequalities for martingales.
$\textbf{Theorem}$ Let $(\Omega, \mathbb{P})$ be a (standard) probability space equipped with a filtration of ...
- 769
4
votes
0
answers
1k
views
Change of Time in Stochastic Integral
Hi everyone,
Let's be given $I(0,t)$ a Stochastic Integral with respect to a local martingale $ M_t$ of the form :
$I(0,t)=\int_0^t h(s_-)dM_s$ with $h\in L(M)$ (for example $h$ is an adapted ...
- 1,334
3
votes
1
answer
543
views
Stochastic integrals as honest martingales -- comparison criterion
We have a given positive martingale $\rho_t$, with the dynamics:
$$\textrm{d} \rho_t = \lambda_t \rho_t \textrm{d} W_t$$
where $W_t$ is a standard Brownian motion. Now we have a "dumped" process p_t:
$...
- 667
3
votes
1
answer
181
views
A nice terminal inequality for martingales
Let $X_t$ be a continuous time martingale taking with $\sup_t \mathbb E[X_t^-] < \infty$, and $X_0 = 0$ almost surely. Assume further that $X_1$ admits a probability density function.
Is it true ...
- 6,215
3
votes
2
answers
636
views
Exponential inequality for the sum of martingale differences $X_1, \dots, X_n$ when $\sum_{i=1}^{n} \operatorname{Var}(X_i) \leq B^2$
Let $X_1, X_2, \dots, X_n$ be a martingale difference sequence such that
$$
X_i \leq y \quad \text{and} \quad \sum_{i=1}^{n} \operatorname{Var}(X_i) \leq B^2.
$$
Question 1: Does the following hold?
$$...
- 33
3
votes
1
answer
237
views
Concentration of a modified random walk
Let $\varepsilon$ be a number in $(0, 1)$, consider the following random walk on the real line $X^{(0)}, X^{(1)}, \dots$, where
$X^{(0)}=0$
If $X^{(t)} > 0$, then with probability $.5$, $X^{(t+1)...
- 143
3
votes
1
answer
235
views
Inequality for exponential sum in Dvoretzky 1972
I'm currently trying to figure out the following inequality. It looks like an inequality for the exponential sum, but I can't verify it or find a source explaining it any further. Most likely it has ...
- 115
3
votes
1
answer
216
views
Does martingale convergence hold for arbitrary time?
Let $\{\mathcal B_i:i\in I\}$ be a family of $\sigma$-algebras (over the same set $\Omega$) which are totally ordered by inclusion, in the sense that for any $i,j\in I$ either $\mathcal B_i\subset\...
- 1,701
3
votes
1
answer
824
views
Stochastic integrals as honest martingales — exponential damping
We have a given positive martingale ρt, with the dynamics:
$$\textrm{d}\rho_t = \lambda_t \rho_t \textrm{d}W_t$$
where $W_t$ is a standard Brownian motion. Now we have an "exponentially dampened" ...
- 667
3
votes
1
answer
353
views
First time random sum exceeds value
Suppose $X_n$ $n = 1, 2, \ldots$ are i.i.d random variables with $\mu := \mathbb{E}[X_n]$ > 0. (although they are not necessarily non-negative). Then if $S_n = \sum_{k=1}^n X_k$ and $\tau_a$ = $\...
- 33
3
votes
1
answer
474
views
Harmonic function and Markov chain
Let $X=(X_k)_{k \in \mathbb{N}}$ be a Markov chain with countable countable state space $S$ and transition matrix $P.$
Let $\mathcal{T}$ be the tail $\sigma$-field of $X:\mathcal{T}=\bigcap_{k \in \...
- 53
3
votes
2
answers
319
views
Concentration inequality of joint event over time of a submartingale
Consider a discrete time submartingale $X_n$ with bounded difference $|X_n-X_{n-1}|\leq c$. With Azuma inequality we have the concentration of a single time event as
$$
P(X_t-X_0 \leq -t) \leq exp\...
- 185
3
votes
2
answers
229
views
Expectation of the exitpoint distance for the symmetric random walk
Let $\nu(x)$ be a symmetric probability measure with respect to the origin on $x\in[-1,1]$ such that $\nu(\{0\})\neq 1$.
Consider a random walk started at $S_0=0$, denoted $S_n=X_1+\dotsb+X_n$, ...
- 31