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Theory and applications of probability and stochastic processes: e.g. central limit theorems, large deviations, stochastic differential equations, models from statistical mechanics, queuing theory.

13 votes

Measure induced on [0, 1] by infinite tosses of biased coin

Just a side comment: if you pass from binary to trinary, you can still obtain the Lebesgue measure by choosing the digits $0$, $1$, $2$, with probabilities $(\frac{1}{3},\frac{1}{3},\frac{1}{3})$ (som …
Serguei Popov's user avatar
12 votes

What are fun elementary subjects in probability?

On a more elementary side, the are these probabilistic paradoxes, such as: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two_envelopes_problem, https://en.wikipedia.o …
12 votes
Accepted

The mean square distance of a random walk from the origin

Let us divide the (time) interval $[0,n]$ into $n/t$ subintervals of length $t$. Let us call the $k$th interval good, if, during that interval, the random walk spends time at least $t/5$ to the left o …
Serguei Popov's user avatar
10 votes

"Surprising" examples of Markov chains

Let $S_n$ be the one-dimensional nearest neighbor random walk with $ 1-q=p=P[S_{n+1}=x+1\mid S_n=x]=1-P[S_{n+1}=x-1\mid S_n=x]$, where $p\neq q$. Then, there is a (rather surprising) fact that $Y_n=| …
Serguei Popov's user avatar
9 votes
Accepted

Brownian motion in $n$ dimensions

The process $\|B(t)\|$ is called $n$-dimensional Bessel process (or Bessel process with parameter $\nu=\frac{n}{2}-1$). I think formula $\bf 4$.1.1.4 of Borodin-Salminen "Handbook of Brownian Motion - …
Serguei Popov's user avatar
7 votes
Accepted

Recurrence of Poisson binomial distributed random walk

$S_n$ is a martingale with bounded jumps, and there is a result that it should either converge to a finite limit, or fluctuate, in the sense that $\limsup S_n=+\infty$, $\liminf S_n=-\infty$ (this, I …
Serguei Popov's user avatar
7 votes
Accepted

How many times does a simple symmetric random walk of length n return to the origin?

All these questions are answered in paragraph 6 of Chapter III of Volume 1 of "An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications" by Feller. In particular: (1) $p=1/2$ is indeed the "right" …
Serguei Popov's user avatar
7 votes
Accepted

Prove an anti-concentration inequality for a martingale

Basically, the proof goes along the following lines: (1) Take a small $\varepsilon>0$ and show that the expected exit time from the interval $[-\varepsilon\sqrt{vl},\varepsilon\sqrt{vl}]$ is less tha …
Serguei Popov's user avatar
7 votes
Accepted

Spiral lattice random walk

It seems to me that this random walk is recurrent. Denote $Y_n=\|X_n\|$, where $(X_n, n\geq 0)$ is your "spiral" walk. Then, as $x\to \infty$, my calculations imply that $$ \mathbb{E}(Y_{n+1}-Y_n\mid …
Serguei Popov's user avatar
5 votes
Accepted

Brownian motion in $\mathbb{R}^n$, probability of hitting a set

It's not that simple. See about polar/nonpolar points/sets e.g. in http://wiki.math.toronto.edu/TorontoMathWiki/index.php/Brownian_Motion_and_Harmonic_functions If I remember correctly, a set is not …
Serguei Popov's user avatar
5 votes
Accepted

Distribution of the area statistic for Catalan paths

Notice that the number of Catalan paths of area at least $cn^{\frac{3}{2}+\varepsilon}$ is less than the number of all paths that deviate from the horizontal axis by at least $n^{\frac{1}{2}+\varepsil …
Serguei Popov's user avatar
5 votes

Random walk visiting a cylinder infinitely often

Well, for $d\geq 2$, the projection of $S_n$ onto a hyperplane orthogonal to $\vec{p}$ is a zero-mean $(d-1)$-dimensional random walk with bounded jumps. Therefore, the answer to your question is ''ye …
Serguei Popov's user avatar
5 votes

Proofs of main probability results from other fields

As for (3) (recurrence in $d\leq 2$ and transience in $d\geq 3$ of simple random walk), there are "electric networks"-proofs of these facts. See the classical book of Doyle and Snell "Random walks and …
4 votes

In the plane, does complement of Brownian path have infinitely many connected components?

Yes. Just observe that (1) on any fixed time interval the Brownian path intersects itself with positive probability (easy to see); (2) but the above implies that on any time interval the Brownian pa …
Serguei Popov's user avatar
4 votes

Slight variation on law of the iterated logarithm

You can use the fact that $B_t-m_t$ is a reflected Brownian motion (see e.g. Revuz-Yor, Chapter VI, Theorem 2.3). I think it shouldn't be difficult to show that $$ \limsup_{t\to\infty} \frac{M_t-m_t}{ …
Serguei Popov's user avatar

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