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Theory and applications of probability and stochastic processes: e.g. central limit theorems, large deviations, stochastic differential equations, models from statistical mechanics, queuing theory.

24 votes

Nonstandard analysis in probability theory

My colleague Ed Perkins used quite a bit of nonstandard analysis in probability theory in the early 80's. See for example http://www.springerlink.com/content/e636h42166202387/ I don't know if he's us …
Robert Israel's user avatar
18 votes

Why is Quantum Field Theory so topological?

Perhaps the main "analytic" area in Quantum Field Theory is known as Constructive Quantum Field Theory. This essentially emerged in the 1960's with the Wightman axioms. There is still work going on t …
Robert Israel's user avatar
17 votes

Why do we need random variables?

Although in principle the sample space, with its $\sigma$-algebra and probability measure, comes first, things are not always so neat in real life. In applications it is often the random variables ( …
Robert Israel's user avatar
16 votes
Accepted

For positive definite $A,B$ why does $AB+BA$ tend to be positive definite?

$\text{tr}(AB+BA) = 2 \operatorname{tr}(A^{1/2} B A^{1/2}) > 0$, so that may produce some bias toward positive eigenvalues. In particular if you generate your "random" matrices in such a way that the …
Robert Israel's user avatar
14 votes

What is the cover time of a random walk on a cube?

More generally, you could ask this for any irreducible Markov chain and any starting state. For each nonempty set S of vertices not containing the starting state $s_0$, let $T_S$ be the time (in steps …
Robert Israel's user avatar
13 votes
Accepted

Is there a systematic theory for Gibbs measures (better if on Hilbert spaces)?

Any probability measure $\mu_1$ absolutely continuous with respect to $\mu_1$ can be written as a Gibbs measure if you allow $G$ to take values $\pm \infty$. If the density is bounded above and below …
Robert Israel's user avatar
10 votes
Accepted

non-negative random variable

Let $f(x) = \sum_{j=0}^d a_j x^j$ be any polynomial of degree $d$ such that $f(0) = 0$ and $f(x) \le 1$ for all $x \ge 0$. Then $$P(X > 0) \ge E[f(X)] = \sum_{j=0}^d a_j E[X^j]$$ Your Cauchy-Schwarz …
Robert Israel's user avatar
8 votes

The expectation of two sides of rectangle is equal. Can we deduce that in the expectation th...

Since you can scale everything linearly, let's suppose $\mathbb E(X) = \mathbb E(Y) = 1$. I'm not sure this is optimal, but I think it must be close. Consider a case where all but two of the points a …
Robert Israel's user avatar
8 votes

what is the probability that a scissor became the champion?

Let $R(r,p,s)$, $P(r,p,s)$, $S(r,p,s)$ be the probabilities of rock, paper, scissors with initial distribution $r,p,s$, where $r + p + s$ is a power of $2$. Now for $r+p+s = 2^{n+1}$, rock will win t …
Robert Israel's user avatar
8 votes

Are these two definitions of "uniformly distributed" equivalent?

They are not equivalent. Suppose $X = [0,1]$, $\mu$ is a unit mass at 0, and $x_n = 1/n$. This sequence is $\mu$-uniformly-distributed-B, because for any continuous $f$, $\int f(x) \, d\mu = f(0) = …
Robert Israel's user avatar
7 votes
Accepted

How to construct i.i.d. standard normal random variables on $\Omega = [0, 1]$ with the Lebes...

If we can find independent random variables $U_j$ uniform on $[0,1]$ we can transform them to $\mathcal N(0,1)$. If $Y$ is uniform on $[0,1]$, let $D_j$ be its $j$'th decimal place, i.e. $Y = \sum_{j …
Robert Israel's user avatar
7 votes
Accepted

Probability of a submatrix to be full rank in a N x N Random Matrix of rank m.

Your matrix $A = X^T X$ where $X$ is a random $m \times N$ matrix with a continuous distribution having a density. An $m \times m$ submatrix of $A$ is $Q^T A P = (XQ)^T XP$ where $P$ and $Q$ are $N \ …
Robert Israel's user avatar
7 votes

What are the odds of a tie in a random election with k candidates?

For $k=3$ with $N$ not divisible by $3$, the probability of a tie is $$ \sum_{m= \lceil N/3 \rceil}^{\lfloor N/2 \rfloor} \dfrac{N!}{m! m! (N-2m)!} 3^{1-N}$$ The sum seems not to have a closed form. …
Robert Israel's user avatar
6 votes
Accepted

Difference between maxima of random variables

Using $\max(a,b) = \dfrac{a+b}{2} + \left| \dfrac{a-b}{2}\right|$, write $u = w_1 + |w_2| - |w_3|$ where $$ \eqalign{ w_1 &= C (y_1 + y_2) \cr w_2 &= \dfrac{1}{2} (x_2 - x_1 + C (y_2 - …
Robert Israel's user avatar
6 votes

Markov chains: invariant measures and explosion

1) No, it won't. Suppose $\mu_j(t)$ is the probability vector at time $t$. Let explosions happen at rate $r(t)$ at time $t$. Then we should have $$ \dfrac{d}{dt} \mu_j(t) = -3^j \mu_j(t) + (2/3) 3^ …
Robert Israel's user avatar

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