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Theory and applications of probability and stochastic processes: e.g. central limit theorems, large deviations, stochastic differential equations, models from statistical mechanics, queuing theory.

27 votes

Probability in number theory

I learned from Gian-Carlo Rota (Combinatorial snapshots) the following probabilistic motivation for looking at the Riemann zeta function: "subject to technical assumptions," the only probability measu …
25 votes
Accepted

Existence of a "quasi-uniform" probability distribution on $\mathbb{Z}$

No. Let's restrict our attention to $\mathbb{N}$. The hypotheses imply that if $q$ is a prime, then the probability that a random positive integer is not divisible by $q$ is $1 - \frac{1}{q}$. They al …
Qiaochu Yuan's user avatar
25 votes
1 answer
4k views

What kind of random matrices have rapidly decaying singular values?

I've been told that in machine learning it's common to compute the singular value decomposition of matrices in order to throw out all information in the matrix except that corresponding to, say, the $ …
Qiaochu Yuan's user avatar
20 votes
Accepted

Random rotations in SO(3) and free group

Yes. Here's what should be a proof: the set of pairs of elements satisfying any particular relation is Zariski closed, hence has measure zero (to show that it is not $SO(3) \times SO(3)$ it suffices …
Qiaochu Yuan's user avatar
17 votes
1 answer
730 views

Reference request: a conjecture of Rota on positive functions of a random variable

Rota and Shen's On the Combinatorics of Cumulants ends with a conjecture which I'll restate as follows: Let $p \in \mathbb{R}[x_1, x_2, ...]$ be a polynomial such that, for any sequence $X_1, X_2 …
Qiaochu Yuan's user avatar
16 votes
Accepted

Can this informal argument (for the fact that almost all reals in the unit interval are irra...

You can make sense of the uniform probability distribution on lots of infinite sets, notably any compact topological group $G$, where "uniform probability distribution" should mean "normalized Haar me …
Qiaochu Yuan's user avatar
15 votes

Age of Stochasticity?

Here is a result that gives the flavor of the kind of thing along these lines I hope to see in the future. Recall Tarski's undefinability of truth: under suitable assumptions, a formal system can't be …
Qiaochu Yuan's user avatar
13 votes
4 answers
1k views

Reference request: probability / ergodic theory without measure spaces

In his notes on free probability, Terence Tao describes a general approach to non-commutative probability which prioritizes the algebra of random variables above the sample space; I find this conceptu …
Qiaochu Yuan's user avatar
13 votes

Why is it so cool to square numbers (in terms of finding the standard deviation)?

One answer I've heard is that you want the notion of standard deviation to 1) apply to points in Euclidean space, and 2) to be invariant under rotation. You don't get the second property unless you s …
Qiaochu Yuan's user avatar
9 votes

Expected maximum number of "prank cigarettes" in an average pack

Equivalently, we are considering a random function $f : [n] \to [n]$ where $[n] = \{ 1, 2, \dots n \}$ is a finite set of size $n$, which assigns to each prank cigarette a pack. The second question is …
Qiaochu Yuan's user avatar
8 votes
Accepted

A non-trivial probability measure on $2^{\mathbb R}$

$2^{\mathbb{R}}$, being a product of compact Hausdorff groups, is a compact Hausdorff group, so it has a normalized Haar measure ("flipping uncountably many coins").
Qiaochu Yuan's user avatar
7 votes

Secret Santa (expected no of cycles in a random permutation)

This isn't an answer to your question, but without any restrictions, the expected number of $r$-cycles in a permutation of at least $r$ elements is $\frac{1}{r}$, so the expected number of cycles in a …
Qiaochu Yuan's user avatar
6 votes

Analogy between Integers and Permutations

it's possible to extend the analogy to the factorization of polynomials over finite fields $\mathbb{F}_q$ (see this blog post for details; one needs to take $q \to \infty$ for the statistics to match, …
Qiaochu Yuan's user avatar
5 votes

Natural probability on integers

Here are examples showing that unlike in the previous problem, here it does not suffice to simply use the fact that the harmonic series / the sum of the reciprocals of the primes diverges. In fact for …
Qiaochu Yuan's user avatar
4 votes

Why do we need to define a random variable as a function?

Suppose I toss $n$ coins. It's natural to model this probabilistically in terms of a sample space $\{ H, T \}^n$ constructed as the product of $n$ copies of the sample space of possible outcomes of a …
Qiaochu Yuan's user avatar

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