Let $G$ be a finitely generated group of polynomial growth, let $\mu$ be a non-degenerate symmetric probability measure with finite support on $G$, and let $d$ be the degree of growth of $G$. Varopoulos proved that $\mu^{2n}(e) = O(n^{- \frac{d}{2}})$ and $n^{- \frac{d}{2}} = O(\mu^{2n}(e)) $ (we write $\mu^{2n}(e) \sim n^{- \frac{d}{2}}$), where $\mu^{2n}$ is the $2n$-th convolution power of $\mu$. Letting $p_{2n}$ be the probability that the random walk on $G$ associated with $\mu$ returns to the origin after $2n$ steps, Varopoulos' result implies that $p_{2n} \sim n^{- \frac{d}{2}}$ also.
Now let $G$ be a Lie group of polynomial growth. Does a similar result to Varopoulos' exist in this setting? References on this topic would be much appreciated.