Notation. Denote $\mathbf{1}=(1,1,\ldots,1)$ as the vector-of-ones in $\mathbb{R}^n$. Write the "positive part" as $[\alpha]_+ = \max\{\alpha,0\}$ for $\alpha\in\mathbb{R}$ and $[(x_1,x_2,\ldots,x_n)]_+ = ([x_1]_+,[x_2]_+,\ldots,[x_n]_+)$ for $x\in\mathbb{R}^n$. Example: $[(1,-2,0,3)]_+ = (1,0,0,3)$.
Let $x \in \mathbb{R}^n$ satisfy $x \ge 0$ and $\mathbf{1}^Tx \le \|x\|^2$ where nonnegativity is interpreted elementwise. Then, I conjecture the following lower-bound $$\mathbf{1}^T(I - xx^T / \|x\|^2) \mathbf{1} \ge \| [\mathbf{1} - x]_+ \|^2$$ Why is this bound true? (Or is there a counterexample?)
I have spent hours verifying the bound over random $x$ and could not find a counterexample. Note that the claim is false if we replace the RHS by $\| \mathbf{1} - x \|^2$; for example, let $x=(0,2)$. I suspect that a proof must somehow work with the cardinality of $x$, since $\mathbf{1}^T\mathbf{1}=n$ and $\mathbf{1}^Tx=\|x\|_1$ and $(\|x\|_1/\|x\|_2)^2\le\mathrm{card}(x)$.