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Say I have $N$ random variables $X_1,\cdots,X_i,\cdots,X_N$, with zero mean and finite variance. $X_i$ and $X_j$ are independent iif $|i-j|>m$, and positively correlated otherwise (say the covariance is of $\mathcal{O}(1)$). It is well-known that the sums of $N$ of these random variables are distributed as a normal distribution as $N \rightarrow \infty$, if $m$ is a finite number of $\mathcal{O}(1)$.

My question is, what if $m=\sqrt{aN}$, and we take a sum of $\sqrt{aN}$ of these random variables, randomly selected from the sequence $X_1,\cdots,X_i,\cdots,X_N$. Would the sum become a normal distribution? Each time we take a sum, we resample $\sqrt{aN}$ random variables and take a sum of them.

My intuition says yes. The reason is if we randomly sample $\sqrt{aN}$ variables from the original sequence of length $N$ (and $m=\sqrt{aN}$), the expected value of the number of variables sampled from any given window of consecutive $\sqrt{aN}$ variables is $a$, based on the following calculation:

$$\text{number of samples}\times\text{probability of sampling from a given window}=\sqrt{aN} \frac{\sqrt{aN}}{N} = a$$

Now it is as if we are taking a sum of $\sqrt{aN}$ random variables that are independent if $|i-j|>a$, so the conventional '$m$-dependent CLT' still holds since our $a$ is of $\mathcal{O}(1)$. Is this intuition correct? How do I prove/disprove this more rigorously?

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  • $\begingroup$ Did you have in mind that these all have the same variance? Or at least that their variances remain bounded as $N\to\infty\text{ ?} \qquad$ $\endgroup$ Commented Feb 8, 2022 at 16:53
  • $\begingroup$ Not the same variance, but yes bounded. $\endgroup$
    – CWC
    Commented Feb 8, 2022 at 17:15
  • $\begingroup$ The "well-known" claim in your first paragraph is not true in such generality: Consider e.g. $X_1=X$, $X_2=X_3=\cdots=0$, where $P(X=\pm1)=1/2$. $\endgroup$ Commented Feb 8, 2022 at 18:18
  • $\begingroup$ @IosifPinelis Should I specify that $0<Var[X_i]<\infty$ to make my claim true? $\endgroup$
    – CWC
    Commented Feb 8, 2022 at 18:47
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    $\begingroup$ All known to me papers on such subjects address this, usually by "shamelessly" requiring that the variance of the cumulative sums go to $\infty$, possibly at a required minimum speed. $\endgroup$ Commented Feb 8, 2022 at 21:25

1 Answer 1

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The answer is yes. Say we have a stationary process, but we observe samples at random times $\{t_n\}$ which itself is a stochastic point process (e.g. Poisson process). The resulting sample is also a stationary process (Ref).

I assume that if the original sequence is m-dependent ($m=\mathcal{O(1)}$), the resulting autocovariance function (for the sampled sequence) decays fast enough that CLT holds for the sum of the sampled sequence.

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  • $\begingroup$ The Ref link is dead. Can you please update it? $\endgroup$
    – gondolf
    Commented Mar 23 at 12:15
  • $\begingroup$ "A central limit theorem for m-dependent random variables" by S Orey is a good reference. $\endgroup$
    – CWC
    Commented Mar 24 at 13:58

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