0
$\begingroup$

Consider a collection of independent standard Gaussian variables $w_i$ for $i = 1, 2, \ldots, N$. Define its linear combination $f:=\sum_{i=1}^Na_iw_i+b_i$, where $a_i=pb_i$ ($p$ is a fixed parameter), its expectation $\mu:=\sum_{i=1}^Nb_i>0$. And from this we have $\sigma^2:=p^2\sum_{i=1}^Nb_i^2=\sum_{i=1}^Na_i^2$.

My question is: Derive a lower bound on $$\mathbb{P}(f>0)>g(\mu,\sigma^2) \text{ (or}\geq)$$

I would need the bound $g(\mu,\sigma^2)$ to be sensitive to the mean and variance of $f$. Consequently, a trade-off between the mean and variance arises, leading to the following observations:

(1) When the variance is fixed, a larger mean corresponds to a larger probability $\mathbb{P}(f > 0)$.

(2) When the mean is fixed, a smaller variance corresponds to a larger probability $\mathbb{P}(f > 0)$.

I appreciate any insights, references, or techniques that can shed light on this problem.

$\endgroup$
0

1 Answer 1

2
$\begingroup$

Eventually not what you want. I have problems understanding your question. Let $b := \sum_{i=1}^n b_i > 0$ and $c^2 := \sum_{i=1}^n b_i^2$. Then $f \sim \mathcal{N}(b,p^2 \cdot c^2)$, thus $q := \mathbb{P}(f > 0) = 1-\Phi\left(\frac{-b}{pc} \right)$ with $\Phi$ the distribution funtion of $\mathcal{N}(0,1)$. We get $\frac{-b}{pc} = \Phi^{-1}(1-q)$ and $p = \frac{-b}{c\Phi^{-1}(1-q)}$. Since $\Phi$ and $\Phi^{-1}$ are well known, what is the problem?

$\endgroup$
7
  • $\begingroup$ (I found involving $p$ is misleading, I have delete $p$ in my original question.) $\endgroup$
    – happyle
    Commented May 24, 2023 at 10:20
  • $\begingroup$ I still don't understand your question. Maybe you are working with an erroneous equation: $\mathbb{P}(f > 0) = 1 - \mathbb{P}(f > 2b)$? $\endgroup$ Commented May 24, 2023 at 10:21
  • $\begingroup$ $\mathbb{P}(f<0)$ is equal to $\mathbb{P}(f>2b)$, since $f$ is $\mathcal{N}(b,p^2c^2)$ and its symmetric to $x=b$ am I right? $\endgroup$
    – happyle
    Commented May 24, 2023 at 10:27
  • $\begingroup$ yes you are right. But I still don't know why are you working with estimates and not with the exact expression. $\Phi$ is monotone with the consequence thart you can easily convert any bound for the probability into bounds for the coefficients $a,b,c,\ldots$. $\endgroup$ Commented May 24, 2023 at 10:51
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ Possibly you are misled by a "false friend": the word "eventually" in English does not mean the same thing that "eventuell" means in French and German. $\endgroup$ Commented May 26, 2023 at 3:19

You must log in to answer this question.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged .