Suppose that $X,Y$ are independent random $d$-dimensional vectors each uniformly distributed on the unit sphere, and let $Z=Y\cdot\sqrt{1-\alpha}$ be a uniformly selected vector on a slightly smaller sphere.
I'm interesting in calculating (or lower-bounding) the probability that $X$ and $Z$ are far from each other, namely, what is: $$ \Pr[\lVert X-Z \rVert^2\le \alpha] $$ as a function of $d,\alpha$?
This quantity appears to play a key role in a vector quantization paper I'm trying to understand (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2010.03246.pdf, Section 4.3), which they unfortunately didn't analyze.