Preliminary definition. Let $\mathcal{S}$, $\mathcal{S}'$ be two complementary nonempty sets of indices, i.e., $\mathcal{S}\cup \mathcal{S}'=\left\{1,2,\ldots,p\right\}$ and $\mathcal{S}\cap \mathcal{S}'=\emptyset$.
Define $\mathcal{E}_{\mathcal{S}}\overset{\Delta}=\left[\left(I-A\right)^{-1}x\right]_{\mathcal{S}}-\left(I_{\mathcal{S}}-A_{\mathcal{S}}\right)^{-1}x_{\mathcal{S}}$, where $\left[y\right]_{\mathcal{S}}$ is the sub-vector indexed by $\mathcal{S}$. Remark that this conforms to a generalized form for the error term in your question where you assume $\mathcal{S}=\left\{1,2,\ldots,j-1,j+1,\ldots,p\right\}$ and $\mathcal{S}'=\left\{j\right\}$.
Preliminary remark. I will refer to $\mathcal{E}_{\mathcal{S}}$ as the error term since it is the error committed by commuting the projection $\left[\cdot\right]_{\mathcal{S}}$ with the underlying operations (product and matrix-inversion). In a sense, the question can be rephrased as: Does the error of commuting the projection $\left[\cdot\right]_{-j}$ with the underlying operations admit an amenable closed-form expression in terms of $A$ and $x$?
For the first term of $\mathcal{E}_{\mathcal{S}}$, observe that $\left[\left(I-A\right)^{-1}x\right]_{\mathcal{S}}=\left[x+Ax+A^2x+\ldots\right]_{\mathcal{S}}=\sum_{i=0}^{\infty} \left[A^ix\right]_{\mathcal{S}}=\sum_{i=0}^{\infty} \left[A^i\right]_{\mathcal{S}}x_{\mathcal{S}}+\left[A^i\right]_{\mathcal{S}\mathcal{S}'}x_{\mathcal{S}'}$.
For the second term of $\mathcal{E}_{\mathcal{S}}$, we have
$$\left(I_{\mathcal{S}}-A_{\mathcal{S}}\right)^{-1}x_{\mathcal{S}}=\sum_{i=0}^{\infty} \left(A_{\mathcal{S}}\right)^ix_{\mathcal{S}}.$$
Therefore, via combining the two terms, we have
$$\mathcal{E}_{\mathcal{S}}=\sum_{i=1}^{\infty} \left(\left[A^i\right]_{\mathcal{S}}-\left(A_{\mathcal{S}}\right)^i\right)x_{\mathcal{S}}+\sum_{i=0}^{\infty}\left[A^i\right]_{\mathcal{S}\mathcal{S}'}x_{\mathcal{S}'},$$
which yields
$$\mathcal{E}_{\mathcal{S}}=\left(\left[(I-A)^{-1}\right]_{\mathcal{S}}-(I_{\mathcal{S}}-A_{\mathcal{S}})^{-1}\right)x_{\mathcal{S}}+\left[(I-A)^{-1}\right]_{\mathcal{S}\mathcal{S}'}x_{\mathcal{S}'}.$$
In your particular case, where $\mathcal{S}=\left\{1,2,\ldots,j-1,j+1,\ldots,p\right\}$ and $\mathcal{S}'=\left\{j\right\}$, we can further simplify the above expression via the following inversion Lemma (e.g., Matrix Analysis, Horn):
$$\left(B_{\mathcal{S}}\right)^{-1}=\left[B^{-1}\right]_{\mathcal{S}}-\left[B^{-1}\right]_{\mathcal{S}\mathcal{S}'}\left(\left[B^{-1}\right]_{\mathcal{S}'}\right)^{-1}\left[B^{-1}\right]_{\mathcal{S}'\mathcal{S}} \,\,\,(\star).$$
Set $B:=\left(I-A\right)$ in the inversion Lemma $(\star)$, then
$$\mathcal{E}_{\mathcal{S}}=\frac{1}{\left(\left[\left(I-A\right)^{-1}\right]_{jj}\right)}\left(\left[\left(I-A\right)^{-1}\right]_{\mathcal{S}\mathcal{S}'}\left[\left(I-A\right)^{-1}\right]_{\mathcal{S}'\mathcal{S}}\right)x_{\mathcal{S}}+\left[(I-A)^{-1}\right]_{\mathcal{S}\mathcal{S}'}x_{j},$$
which under your notation goes by
$$\mathcal{E}_{\mathcal{S}}=\frac{1}{\left(\left[\left(I-A\right)^{-1}\right]_{jj}\right)}\left(\left[\left(I-A\right)^{-1}\right]_{-j,j}\left[\left(I-A\right)^{-1}\right]_{j,-j}\right)x_{-j}+\left[(I-A)^{-1}\right]_{-j,j}\,x_{j}.$$
Final remark. Interestingly, the error term $\mathcal{E}_{\mathcal{S}}$ does not depend on the entries of the $(p-1)\times (p-1)$ sub-matrix $\left[(I-A)^{-1}\right]_{-j,-j}$ -- which is the bulk of the $p\times p$ matrix $\left(I-A\right)^{-1}$.