There isn't a lot of follow-up literature (especially in English) concerning the material covered in Jantzen's 1977 Math. Ann. paper, but maybe these remarks will clarify some of the issues you raise. (Chapter 9 of my 2008 book was a half-way compromise between giving a broad exposition and writing down all the fine details, which would have required even more notation than I already introduced.)
(1) First I'll try to focus your questions in the setting of (reductive) Lie algebras over $\mathbb{C}$. Consider for any $d \geq 2$ the compact Lie group $SO(d)$, which is somewhat degenerate unless $d \geq 5$. When $d \geq 5$, the group is (almost) simple, say of Lie rank $\ell$ (the dimension of a maximal torus). Now pass to the complexification of its Lie algebra, also of rank $\ell$ and simple. Here there are two slightly different cases: if $d=2\ell$ is even, the Lie algebra has type $D_\ell$, while if $d = 2\ell+1$ is odd, the Lie algebra has type $B_\ell$. (Their root systems and Weyl groups differ.)
In your set-up, the starting point is actually the group $SO(d+2)$ for some $d$ (say $d \geq 5$ as before) with complexified Lie algebra now called $\mathfrak{g}$. It has a subgroup: $SO(d) \times SO(2)$, where $SO(2)$ is just a compact torus of dimension 1. (Maybe the centers of the two factors can overlap?) If we again write $\ell$ for the rank of $SO(d)$, then $SO(d+2)$ has rank $\ell+1$ in either of the two cases: If $d=2\ell$ is even, then $d+2 = 2(\ell+1)$, while if $d=2\ell+1$ is odd, then $d+2 = 2(\ell+1)+1$.
For the Lie algebras, this translates into having a Levi subalgebra in a maximal standard parabolic subalgebra $\mathfrak{p}_I= \mathfrak{p} = \mathfrak{l} \oplus \mathfrak{u}$. Here $\mathfrak{g}$ has rank $\ell+1$, while the (simple) derived algebra of $\mathfrak{l}$ has rank $\ell$ and the center of $\mathfrak{l}$ has dimension 1. The nilradical $\mathfrak{u}$ of $\mathfrak{p}$ then involves the "leftover" positive roots; in each case, a simple computation shows that the number of these (= $\dim \mathfrak{u}$) is just $d$, as stated in the question. (The number of positive roots in type $B_\ell$ is $\ell^2$ and in type $D_\ell$ is $\ell^2-\ell$.) For all of this one has fixed a basis of $\ell + 1$ simple roots for the root system and resulting positive roots relative to a Cartan subalgebra of $\mathfrak{g}$ shared with $\mathfrak{p}$. In each case, the set $I$ of $\ell$ simple roots for the derived algebra of $\mathfrak{l}$ can be obtained by deleting $\alpha_1$ in Bourbaki numbering (the left node of the Dynkin diagram).
(2) To construct a parabolic Verma module (often called a "generalized" Verma module), start with an integral weight $\lambda$ of $\mathfrak{g}$ whose coordinates relative to the $\ell$ fundamental weights of the derived algebra of $\mathfrak{l}$ are non-negative. Thus $\lambda$ yields a finite dimensional simple module for $\mathfrak{l}$, which extends to $\mathfrak{p}$ by making $\mathfrak{u}$ act trivially; induce to $\mathfrak{g}$ to get the desired infinite dimensional parabolic Verma module $M_I(\lambda)$.
(3) A natural problem is to decide when $M_I(\lambda)$ is actually a simple module. For arbitrary weights the criteria developed by Jantzen (and summarized in $\S9.13$ of my book) are rather intricate, but for a regular weight (one lying inside a Weyl chamber) the precise condition is more straightforward (my Cor. 9.13(d)). But for the given set-up this still requires a lot of careful bookkeeping with the root systems. It's useful to start with the much simpler analogous example of $A_1 \hookrightarrow A_2$ discussed in my $\S9.5$, where again one has a maximal parabolic subalgebra. Here there are only 3 relevant Weyl chambers (out of 6) and 3 simple modules with linked regular weights $\lambda$. In this example, the corresponding parabolic Verma modules have respectively 2, 2, 1 composition factors. In particular, note that a weight in the "middle" chamber (below the usual dominant one) defines a parabolic Verma module which is not simple but doesn't include a parabolic Verma module.
(4) In his 1977 paper Jantzen also adapted to the parabolic case the earlier ideas which he and Shapovalov had independently developed. Here in particular one can (in principle but seldom in practice) compute explicitly the determinant of the resulting contravariant form on each weight space. Besides the inductively computed determinant for the Levi part of the parabolic, one has to compute additional factors for the "leftover" positive roots. Even after unpacking Jantzen's heavy notation for all of this, I'm not confident about being able to carry out the computation in the question here even for a regular weight in each relevant Weyl chamber. The first "generic" case seems to arise for $B_3 \hookrightarrow B_4$ (when $d=7$) or $D_4 \hookrightarrow D_5$ (when $d=8$). (But a couple of smaller "degenerate" cases might also be considered.) Direct computation in any of these cases looks cumbersome.