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Very briefly, consider the probability space $(\mathbb R^n, \mathcal{B}(\mathbb R^n),P)$. During a problem I am studying, I came to a point where i need to compute

\begin{equation*} \begin{aligned} & {\text{minimize}} & & \text{vol}(A) \\ & \text{subject to} & & P(A) \ge 1 - \alpha \end{aligned} \end{equation*}

where $\text{vol(A)}$ refers the the volume in $\mathbb R^n$ (i.e. Lebesgue measure).

My question would be, whether this is some standard question, or, if it does even make sense to consider this (unfortunately I am by far no expert in probability theory).

Any feedback is greatly appreciated.Thank you.

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    $\begingroup$ This exact problem is not standard, as far as I know, but it is of similar character to general "isoperimetric-type" problems for probability measures. It certainly makes sense to consider it. It's hard to say much without being more specific about your probability measure, but in general it would probably be more tractable to reformulate the problem as maximizing the probability of a set with given volume. $\endgroup$ Commented Jan 8, 2014 at 7:53
  • $\begingroup$ I think it's the neyman-pearson lemma, mutatis mutandis $\endgroup$
    – mike
    Commented Jan 8, 2014 at 14:55
  • $\begingroup$ Yes, it's exactly the same ideas. $\endgroup$
    – Adrien
    Commented Jan 8, 2014 at 15:06
  • $\begingroup$ Did the problem you're studying specify a particular probability distribution? $\endgroup$ Commented Feb 7, 2014 at 18:14

1 Answer 1

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$P$ and $\lambda$ the Lebesgue measure are both $\sigma$-finite measure, so you can use the decomposition theorem and the Radon-Nikodym theorem.

By the decomposition theorem, there exist two disjoint measurable sets $E_1$ and $E_2$, and two unique measures $\lambda_1$ and $\lambda_2$ such that: $$\lambda = \lambda_1 + \lambda_2$$ with $\lambda_1$ absolutely continuous w.r.t. $P$ (and both $\lambda_1$ and $P$ concentrated on $E_1$) and $\lambda_2$ concentrated on $E_2$.

Using the Radon-Nikodym theorem, we then get that $\lambda_1$ has a density $\frac{d\lambda_1}{dP}$ w.r.t to $P$.

Let $A_\beta = \left\lbrace x \in E_1 \ : \ \frac{d\lambda_1}{dP}\left(x\right) \leq \beta \right\rbrace$. $A_\beta$ is measurable and the function $f$ defined by $ \beta \mapsto P(A_\beta)$ is increasing and it goes to $1$ as $\beta$ goes to $+\infty$.

If $f$ is continuous, let $f^{-1}\left(1 - \alpha \right) = \sup_{f(\beta) < 1 - \alpha}{\lbrace \beta \rbrace } = \inf_{ f(\beta) \geq 1 - \alpha}{ \lbrace \beta \rbrace } $, your minimization problem is minized at $A_{f^{-1}\left(1 - \alpha \right)}$ which has probability $P(A_{f^{-1}\left(1 - \alpha \right)}) = 1 - \alpha$ and has volume: $$\lambda(A_{f^{-1}\left(1 - \alpha \right)}) = \lambda \left( \left\lbrace x \in E_1 \ : \ \frac{d\lambda_1}{dP}\left(x\right) < f^{-1}\left(1 - \alpha \right) \right\rbrace \right) $$

If $f$ is not, there is still a generalized inverse $\tilde{f}^{-1}\left(1 - \alpha \right) = \sup_{f(\beta) < 1 - \alpha}{\lbrace \beta \rbrace } = \inf_{ f(\beta) \geq 1 - \alpha}{ \lbrace \beta \rbrace } $ and the minimization problem has volume $v$ bounded by: $$\lambda \left( \left\lbrace x \in E_1 \ : \ \frac{d\lambda_1}{dP}\left(x\right) < \tilde{f}^{-1}\left(1 - \alpha \right) \right\rbrace \right) \leq v \leq \lambda \left( \left\lbrace x \in E_1 \ : \ \frac{d\lambda_1}{dP}\left(x\right) \leq \tilde{f}^{-1}\left(1 - \alpha \right) \right\rbrace \right) $$

Ok, I'm stuck there. Can one show that $f$ is always continuous ? Or if not, is it always possible to decompose the set $\left\lbrace x \in E_1 \ : \ \frac{d\lambda_1}{dP}\left(x\right) = \tilde{f}^{-1}\left(1 - \alpha \right) \right\rbrace$ into smaller measurable sets to improve things ?

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