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Take two triangular arrays $X_{N,i}$ and $Y_{N,i}$ of random variables where $1 \le i \le N$. Suppose that the families $\{X_{N,i}\}$ and $\{Y_{N,i}\}$ are independent, and that the following conditions hold:

  • Each row is permutation invariant, that is for $N$ fixed and any $\sigma \in S_N$ $$ (X_{N,1},\ldots,X_{N,N}) \stackrel{d}{=} (X_{N,\sigma (1)},\ldots,X_{N,\sigma(N)}) $$ $$ (Y_{N,1},\ldots,Y_{N,N}) \stackrel{d}{=} (Y_{N,\sigma (1)},\ldots,Y_{N,\sigma(N)}) $$
  • There are finite constants $a_n,b_n$ such that the sample moments converge in probability $$ \frac1N \sum_{i=1}^N X_{N,i}^n \xrightarrow{\mathcal{P}} a_n $$ $$ \frac1N \sum_{i=1}^N Y_{N,i}^n \xrightarrow{\mathcal{P}} b_n $$

Then is it true that the sample covariance converges in probability to $a_1b_1$? $$ \frac1N \sum_{i=1}^N X_{N,i}Y_{N,i} \xrightarrow{\mathcal{P}} a_1b_1 \ \ ? $$ I make no assumptions about the dependence within the two families, only that they are independent from one another.


The motivation for the problem comes from the following observation. If the random variables have finite moments and if there were finite constants $a',b'$ such that $$ \mathbb{E}\left[ \frac1N \sum_{i=1}^N X_{N,i} \right] \to a' $$ $$ \mathbb{E}\left[ \frac1N \sum_{i=1}^N Y_{N,i} \right] \to b' $$ then by the permutation invariance of the families it follows that $$ \mathbb{E}\left[ \frac1N \sum_{i=1}^N X_{N,i}Y_{N,i} \right] = \frac1N \sum_{i=1}^N \mathbb{E}[X_{N,i}]\mathbb{E}[Y_{N,i}] $$ $$ = \frac1N \sum_{i=1}^N \mathbb{E}\left[\frac1N \sum_{j=1}^N X_{N,j}\right]\mathbb{E}\left[ \frac1N \sum_{k=1}^N Y_{N,k}\right] \to a'b' $$ I am asking if a similar phenomenon holds in the case where all quantities are described by convergence in probability rather than convergence of expectations.

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  • $\begingroup$ I don't understand. What are precisely the assumptions? First, the $x_{N,i}$, $y_{N,i}$ need not be independent? 2. Good measure? 3. $a_n$, $b_n$ finite? 4. $\mathbb{E}|x_{N,i}| = \infty$? $\ldots$ $\endgroup$ Commented Jun 6 at 18:24
  • $\begingroup$ @DieterKadelka clarified. $\endgroup$ Commented Jun 6 at 18:40
  • $\begingroup$ Are $x_{N,1},\dots,x_{N,N},y_{N,1},\dots,y_{N,N}$ random variables? Are $x_{N,1},\dots,x_{N,N},y_{N,1},\dots,y_{N,N}$ jointly independent? Are the $x_{N,i}$'s iid? Are the $y_{N,i}$'s iid? Any other conditions missing? How is it "easy to show"? $\endgroup$ Commented Jun 6 at 19:12
  • $\begingroup$ Rephrased and tried to clarify further. $\endgroup$ Commented Jun 6 at 19:44
  • $\begingroup$ I don't understand the equality in your last last display, nor do I know what conditions you are assuming there. Again, are the $X_{N,i}$' s iid? Are the $Y_{N,i}$' s iid? Also, and more importantly, why do you think the convergence of the expected values would imply the convergence in probability?? $\endgroup$ Commented Jun 6 at 20:38

1 Answer 1

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$\newcommand{\ep}{\varepsilon}$Let us write $n$ instead of $N$ and $k$ instead of $n$. For brevity, let us also write $X_i$ and $Y_i$ instead of $X_{n,i}$ and $Y_{n,i}$.

For any function $f$ of several variables, let \begin{equation*} E_n f(X,Y,\ldots):=\frac1n\sum_{i\in[n]}f(X_i,Y_i,\ldots), \end{equation*} where $[n]:=\{1,\dots,n\}$.

It is given that the $X_i$'s are permutation invariant, the $Y_i$'s are permutation invariant, the $Y_i$'s are independent of the $X_i$'s, \begin{equation*} E_n X^k\to a_k,\quad E_n Y^k\to b_k \tag{10}\label{10} \end{equation*} for $k=1,2,\dots$. Here and in what follows, the convergence is in probability as $n\to\infty$.

We have to show that then \begin{equation*} E_n XY\overset{\text{(?)}}\to a_1 b_1. \tag{20}\label{20} \end{equation*} Note that $E_n XY=E_n(X-a_1)Y+a_1E_n Y$ and $E_n(X-a_1)^k=\sum_{j=0}^k\binom kj (-a_1)^j E_nX^{k-j}$. So, replacing $X_i$ by $X_i-a_1$, we see that without loss of generality (wlog) $a_1=0$. Similarly, wlog $b_1=0$. So, \begin{equation*} a_1=b_1=0, \tag{25}\label{25} \end{equation*} and \eqref{20} becomes \begin{equation*} E_n XY\overset{\text{(?)}}\to 0. \tag{20a}\label{20a} \end{equation*}

For each small enough real $\ep>0$, let \begin{equation*} M:=M_\ep:=\ep^{-2/3}. \tag{27}\label{27} \end{equation*} Let \begin{equation*} \hat X_i:=X_i\,1(|X_i|\le M),\quad \check X_i:=X_i-\hat X_i=X_i\,1(|X_i|>M), \end{equation*} \begin{equation*} \hat Y_i:=Y_i\,1(|Y_i|\le M),\quad \check Y_i:=Y_i-\hat Y_i=Y_i\,1(|Y_i|>M). \end{equation*}

Note that \begin{equation*} P(|E_n XY|>4\ep)\le p_1+\cdots+p_4, \tag{30}\label{30} \end{equation*} where \begin{equation*} p_1:=P(|E_n \hat X\hat Y|>\ep),\quad p_2:=P(|E_n \hat X\check Y|>\ep), \end{equation*} \begin{equation*} p_3:=P(|E_n \check X\hat Y|>\ep),\quad p_4:=P(|E_n \check X\check Y|>\ep). \end{equation*} Next, \begin{equation*} |\check Y_i|\le Y_i^4/M^3, \quad |\check X_i|\le X_i^4/M^3, \tag{40}\label{40} \end{equation*} and hence \begin{equation*} p_2\le P(E_n|\check Y|>\ep/M)\le P(E_n Y^4>M^2\ep)\to0, \tag{50}\label{50} \end{equation*} by \eqref{10} with $k=4$. Similarly, \begin{equation*} p_3\to0. \tag{60}\label{60} \end{equation*} Next, in view of the Cauchy--Schwarz inequality and the inequalities \begin{equation*} \check X_i^2\le X_i^4/M^2, \quad \check Y_i^2\le Y_i^4/M^2, \tag{40a}\label{40a} \end{equation*} we get \begin{equation*} p_4\le P(E_n \check X^2\,E_n \check Y^2>\ep^2) \le P(E_n \check X^2>\ep)+P(E_n \check Y^2>\ep) \\ \le P(E_n X^4>M^2\ep)+P(E_n Y^4>M^2\ep) \to0. \tag{70}\label{70} \end{equation*} So, \eqref{20a} reduces to \begin{equation*} p_1\overset{\text{(?)}}\to0. \tag{20b}\label{20b} \end{equation*}

Note now that \begin{equation*} P(|E_n\hat X|>2\ep)\le P(|E_n X|>\ep)+P(|E_n\check X|>\ep) \\ \le P(|E_n X|>\ep)+P(E_n X^4>M^3\ep)\to0, \end{equation*} by \eqref{10}, \eqref{25}, \eqref{40}, and \eqref{27}.
So, $E_n\hat X\to0$. Also, $|E_n\hat X|\le M$. So, by dominated convergence, \begin{equation*} E(E_n\hat X)^2\to0. \tag{80}\label{80} \end{equation*} On the other hand, by the permutation-invariance, \begin{equation*} E(E_n\hat X)^2=\frac1{n^2}\sum_{i,j\in[n]}E\hat X_i\hat X_j \\ =\frac n{n^2}E\hat X_1^2+\frac{n^2-n}{n^2}E\hat X_1\hat X_2. \end{equation*} Therefore and in view of \eqref{80} and because $|\hat X_1|\le M$, we see that \begin{equation} E\hat X_1\hat X_2\to0. \tag{90}\label{90} \end{equation} So, recalling that the $Y_i$'s are independent of the $X_i$'s, we get \begin{equation*} E(E_n\hat X\hat Y)^2 =\frac1{n^2}\sum_{i,j\in[n]}E\hat X_i\hat X_j\,E\hat Y_i\hat Y_j \\ =\frac n{n^2}E\hat X_1^2\,E\hat Y_1^2 +\frac{n^2-n}{n^2}E\hat X_1\hat X_2\,E\hat Y_1\hat Y_2. \end{equation*} Therefore and in view of \eqref{90} and because $|\hat X_1|\le M$ and $|\hat Y_1|\le M$, we see that \begin{equation} E(E_n\hat X \hat Y)^2\to0. \end{equation} Now \eqref{20b} follows by Markov's inequality. $\quad\Box$

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  • $\begingroup$ The choice of M is very good. I think a similar statement can be proved if $E_n |X_i|^{2+\delta}$ are bounded with high probability, here you used convergence of $E_n X_i^4$. $\endgroup$ Commented Jun 13 at 23:22
  • $\begingroup$ @GregZitelli : I think you are right about $2+\delta$. I had to use $4$ because it is the smallest order of the absolute empirical moment available in your setting. $\endgroup$ Commented Jun 14 at 1:58

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