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For what it's worth, some simulation data I have aligns well with $O(\sqrt{k/N})$. So, +1 for it being a pretty good guess, even if the argument is loose.
This looks great. Sorry if this is obvious, but when you take the union bound, I would have thought that was equivalent to multiplying the bound by ${k \choose 2}$, but you seem to have multiplied it by $k{k \choose 2}$. Where does the extra $k$ come from?