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Theory and applications of probability and stochastic processes: e.g. central limit theorems, large deviations, stochastic differential equations, models from statistical mechanics, queuing theory.
4
votes
Lower bounding the probability that a zero-mean sequence of random variables stays positive
A standard technique to lower-bound $\mathbb P(0 < X < r)$ as a function of $\mathbb E[|X|^3]$ subject to $\mathbb E[X] = 0$ and $\mathbb E[X^2] = 1$
is to consider a suitable linear combination of $| …
2
votes
Bounds for the sum of some random variables, in terms of their cdfs
The obvious bound is
$$\text{Pr}(X_1 + X_2 + X_3 \le x) \le \text{Pr}(X_1 \le x) \text{Pr}(X_2 \le x) \text{Pr}(X_3 \le x) \le G_1(x) G_2(x) G_3(x)$$
For something that might be slightly better, take …
0
votes
Accepted
Expected number of packed items in box
If $S_i$ is the sum of the first $i$ items chosen (I assume this is with replacement), then $S_i$ has mean $\mu i$ and variance $\sigma^2 i$.
Now $a(n) \le I < b(n)$ iff $S_{a(n)} \le n$ and $S_{b(n)} …
2
votes
Sum of n independent F distribution random variables
I doubt that there is a closed form in general. The characteristic function of one of your random variables is, according to Maple, ${{\rm e}^{-is}}{\rm erfc} \left( \sqrt {-is} \right)$, so the char …
1
vote
Lower Bound on $E[X Y]$
I'll assume $x_0, y_0 \ge 0$. Presumably $k \ge 0$, since if $k < 0$ the only way to have $X \ge Y^k$ with $0 \le X,Y \le 1$ is $X=Y=1$. Since $X \ge Y^k$, Jensen's inequality says $E[XY] \ge E[Y^{k+1 …
4
votes
Accepted
Expectation where linearity does not hold
Consider the following example. $W, X, Y, Z$ all have standard Cauchy distribution, but $X$ and $Y$ are independent while $Z = -W$. Then $X+Y$ also has a Cauchy distribution so its expected value doe …
8
votes
what is the probability that a scissor became the champion?
Let $R(r,p,s)$, $P(r,p,s)$, $S(r,p,s)$ be the probabilities of rock, paper, scissors with initial distribution $r,p,s$, where $r + p + s$ is a power of $2$. Now for $r+p+s = 2^{n+1}$,
rock will win t …
4
votes
Rank $k$ of a sequence of random variables
The key word is "order statistics".
One thing that is known is that
for any random variables $X_1,...,X_n$, if
$Y_1,...,Y_n$ are the corresponding order statistics, then
$\sum_i \text{Var}(Y_i) \le …
1
vote
Estimating expectation of a slightly strange sum
It is possible to take random variables $X_k$ and the corresponding $W_k$
so $\mathbb E[X_k] \to \infty$ while $\mathbb E[W_k]/\mathbb E[X_k] \to 0$. For example, consider
$X = N$ with probability …
5
votes
Derivatives through random variables?
What might make sense is if $X$ is a function $g(U,\theta)$ of some underlying random variable $U$ (with distribution not depending on $\theta$) and $\theta$, where the differentiable function $g$ is …
1
vote
Divergence of general random series and a special case
Let $\mu_n$ and $\sigma_n$ be the mean and standard deviation of $X_n$. Suppose there is a sequence of positive numbers $k_n$ such that $\sum_n 1/k_n^2 < \infty$ while $\sum_n (\mu_n - k_n \sigma_n) …
10
votes
Accepted
non-negative random variable
Let $f(x) = \sum_{j=0}^d a_j x^j$ be any polynomial of degree $d$ such that
$f(0) = 0$ and $f(x) \le 1$ for all $x \ge 0$. Then
$$P(X > 0) \ge E[f(X)] = \sum_{j=0}^d a_j E[X^j]$$
Your Cauchy-Schwarz …
1
vote
Accepted
Distribution of bounded summation of i.i.d random variables
The CDF of $K$ is
$$ P(K \le n) = P(S_n > T) = \int_{T}^\infty dt\; f_n(t)$$
The CDF of $S_K$ (for $s > T$) is
$$\eqalign{P(S_K \le s) &= \sum_{n=1}^\infty P(K = n, S_n \le s) = \sum_{n=1}^\infty P(S …
2
votes
Convergence in distribution to a Poisson
As Nate Eldridge noted, the answer is no. For a positive result, you need some extra condition. Suppose e.g. the variances $\text{Var}(X_n) < c (E X_n)^2$ for $n$ sufficiently large, with some const …
0
votes
A way to possibly calculate one Binomial CDF function from another closely related one?
Under the conditions where the Central Limit Theorem applies ($n \to \infty$ with $p$ approaching a constant), you can approximate the binomial CDF by
$$ F_{n,p}(s) \approx \Phi\left(\dfrac{s-np}{\sqr …