Completely rewritten. (9/26)
It seems indeed that nothing like Theorem 1.10 from Mochizuki's IUTT-IV could hold.
Here is an infinite set of counterexamples, assuming for convenience two standard conjectures (the first being in fact a consequence of ABC), that contradict Thm. 1.10 very badly.
Assumptions:
A (Consequence of ABC) For all but finitely many elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$, the conductor $N$ and the minimal discriminant $\Delta$ satisfy $\log{|\Delta|} < (\log{N})^2$.
B (Uniform Serre Open Image conjecture) For each $d \in \mathbb{N}$, there is a constant $c(d) < \infty$ such that for every number field $F/\mathbb{Q}$ with $[F:\mathbb{Q}] \leq d$, and every non-CM elliptic curve $E$ over $F$, and every prime $\ell \geq c(d)$, the Galois representation of $G_F$ on $E[\ell]$ has full image $\mathrm{GL}_2(\mathbb{Z}/{\ell})$. (In fact, it is sufficient to take the weaker version in which $F$ is held fixed. )
Further, as far as I can tell from the proof of Theorem 1.10 of IUTTIV, the only reason for taking $F := F_{\mathrm{tpd}}\big( \sqrt{-1}, E_{F_{\mathrm{tpd}}}[3\cdot 5] \big)$ --- rather than simply $F := F_{\mathrm{tpd}}(\sqrt{-1})$ --- was to ensure that $E$ has semistable reduction over $F$. Since I will only work in what follows with semistable elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$, I will assume, for a mild technical convenience in the examples below, that for elliptic curves already semistable over $F_{\mathrm{tpd}}$, we may actually take $F := F_{\mathrm{tpd}}(\sqrt{-1})$ in Theorem 1.10.
The infinite set of counterexamples. They come from Masser's paper [Masser: Note on a conjecture of Szpiro, Asterisque 1990], as follows. Masser has produced an infinite set of Frey-Hellougarch (i.e., semistable and with rational 2-torsion) elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$ whose conductor $N$ and minimal discriminant $\Delta$ satisfy $$ (1) \hspace{3cm} \frac{1}{6}\log{|\Delta|} \geq \log{N} + \frac{\sqrt{\log{N}}}{\log{\log{N}}}. $$ (Thus, $N$ in these examples may be taken arbitrarily large. ) By (A) above, taking $N$ big enough will ensure that $$ (2) \hspace{3cm} \log{|\Delta|} < (\log{N})^2. $$ Next, the sum of the logarithms of the primes in the interval $\big( (\log{N})^2, 2(\log{N})^2 \big)$ is $2(\log{N})^2 + o((\log{N})^2)$, so it is certainly $> (\log{N})^2$ for $N \gg 0$ big enough. Thus, by (2), it is easy to see that the interval $\big( (\log{N})^2, 2(\log{N})^2 \big)$ contains a prime $\ell$ which divides neither $|\Delta|$ nor any of the exponents $\alpha = \mathrm{ord}_p(\Delta)$ in the prime factorization $|\Delta| = \prod p^{\alpha}$ of $|\Delta|$.
Consider now the pair $(E,\ell)$: it has $F_{\mathrm{mod}} = \mathbb{Q}$, and since $E$ has rational $2$-torsion, $F_{\mathrm{tpd}} = \mathbb{Q}$ as well. Let $F := \mathbb{Q} \big( \sqrt{-1}\big)$. I claim that, upon taking $N$ big enough, the pair $(E_F,\ell)$ arises from an initial $\Theta$-datum as in IUTT-I, Definition 3.1. Indeed:
- Certainly (a), (e), (f) of IUTT-I, Def. 3.1 are satisfied (with appropriate $\underline{\mathbb{V}}, \, \underline{\epsilon}$);
- (b) of IUTT-I, Def. 3.1 is satisfied since by construction $E$ is semistable over $\mathbb{Q}$;
- (c) of IUTT-I, Def. 3.1 is satisfied, in view of (B) above and the choice of $\ell$, as soon as $N \gg 0$ is big enough (recall that $\ell > (\log{N})^2$ by construction!), and by the observation that, for $v$ a place of $F = \mathbb{Q}(\sqrt{-1})$, the order of the $v$-adic $q$-parameter of $E$ equals $\mathrm{ord}_v (\Delta)$, which equals $\mathrm{ord}_p(\Delta)$ for $v \mid p > 2$, and $2\cdot\mathrm{ord}_2(\Delta)$ for $v \mid 2$;
while $\mathbb{V}_{\mathrm{mod}}^{\mathrm{bad}}$ consists of the primes dividing $\Delta$;
- Finally, (d) of IUTT-I, Def. 3.1 is satisfied upon excluding at most four of Masser's examples $E$. (See page 37 of IUTT-IV).
Now, take $\epsilon := \big( \log{N} \big)^{-2}$ in Theorem 1.10 of IUTT-IV; this is certainly permissible for $N \gg 0$ large enough. I claim that the conclusion of Theorem 1.10 contradicts (1) as soon as $N \gg 0$ is large enough.
For note that Mochizuki's quantity $\log(\mathfrak{q})$ is precisely $\log{|\Delta|}$ (reference: see e.g. Szpiro's article in the Grothendieck Festschrift, vol. 3); his $\log{(\mathfrak{d}^{\mathrm{tpd}})}$ is zero; his $d_{\mathrm{mod}}$ is $1$; and his $\log{(\mathfrak{f}^{\mathrm{tpd}})}$ is our $\log{N}$. By construction, our choice $\epsilon := \big( \log{N} \big)^{-2}$ then makes $1/\ell < \epsilon$ and $\ell < 2/\epsilon$, whence the finaly display of Theorem 1.10 would yield $$ \frac{1}{6} \log{|\Delta|} \leq (1+29\epsilon) \cdot \log{N} + 2\log{(2\epsilon^{-8})} < \log{N} + 16\log{\log{N}} + 32, $$ where we have used $\epsilon \log{N} = (\log{N})^{-1} < 1$ for $N > 3$, and $2\log{2} < 2$.
The last display contradicts (1) as soon as $N \gg 0$ is big enough.
Thus Masser's examples yield infinitely many counterexamples to Theorem 1.10 of IUTT-IV (as presently written).