Let's consider the associahedron whose vertices are triangulations of an $n$-gon. Sleator, Tarjan, and Thurston (Rotation distance, triangulations, and hyperbolic geometry, JAMS, 1988)
give a simple argument that the maximum distance between two triangulations is at most $2n-10$. Namely, if you pick a boundary vertex $v$, it's always possible to do a flip which increases its degree, unless you are already at the triangulation which has all its diagonals incident to $v$. So, if $T$ and $T'$ are two triangulations, you can get from $T$ to $T'$ via the triangulation with all diagonals incident to $v$ in at most $2n-6 - \textrm{deg}_T(v) - \textrm{deg}_{T'}(v)$ steps, where the degrees are with respect to the diagonals only. They then give a simple averaging argument that if $n$ is at least 12, $v$ can be chosen so the sum of the degrees of $v$ in $T$ and $T'$ is at least 4.
If we construct the generating polynomial starting from the bottom of the Tamari lattice, $T_0$, (where all the edges are incident to vertex $0$) as suggested by Sam, the maximum distance will be much less: by the same argument, we can always increase the degree of 0 by one at each step, and obviously we can't increase it by more than one. So the distance of $T$ from $T_0$ is just $n-3-\deg_T(0)$.
The count of triangulations by degree of a fixed vertex is known to be given by ballot numbers. (See A009766 of the OEIS.) The formula for those at distance $k$ is $\frac{n-2-k}{n-2}\binom{n-3+k}{n-3}$. This is very far from being approximately Gaussian.
If we start from a more typical vertex of the associahedron, though, the results might look more like what the OP proposed.
Edited to add: Sleator, Tarjan, and Thurston actually showed (using hyperbolic geometry) that for $n$ sufficiently large, the bound they found is tight. Their proof gave no indication of how big $n$ had to be, and for small values of $n$ (but at least 12), their bound was computed to be sharp. Finally their bound was shown to be sharp for all $n$ at least 12 by Pournin, https://arxiv.org/abs/1207.6296. This shows that there are some vertices of the associahedron for which the behaviour will be quite different from the one I discussed above.