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Two teams are having an intense penalty shootout. The game ends when either team leads by a certain threshold, or once a certain number of rounds has passed, whichever comes first. Currently team $X$ is in the lead. What are the chances that team $Y$ can make a comeback?

Let $X_n, Y_n$ be jointly independent Bernoulli valued random variables, taking values $0$ or $1$ with equal probability, which we think of as the outcome of the penalty shoots.

Fix some number $N > 0$ of rounds to go, some initial score $z > 0$ and some score threshold $M > 0$, where $z < M$.

Write $Z_n := z + \sum_{i = 1}^n X_i - \sum_{i = 1}^n Y_i$ and define the stopping time $\phi := \inf\{n \in \mathbb N \, \big | \, |Z_n| \geq M\}$. Set $\tau = \min(\phi, N).$

Question: What is the chance that team $Y$ wins? That is, what is the probability that $Z_\tau < 0$?

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$\newcommand{\Z}{\mathbb Z}$Of course, one can write an expression for the probability in question as a certain sum over the set $\{-1,0,1\}^N$. Given the three parameters $N,M,z$, a very simple expression does not seem likely to exist.

However, looking at the distribution of $X_i-Y_i$, one may note that the probability in question, say $p_{z,N}=p_{z,n,M}$, is the solution to the following boundary value problem for a partial difference equation: $$p_{y,n}=\tfrac14\,p_{y+1,n-1}+\tfrac14\,p_{y-1,n-1}+\tfrac12\,p_{y,n-1} \tag{1}\label{1}$$ for $(y,n)\in\{1-M,\dots,M-1\}\times\{1,\dots,N\}$, $$p_{y,0}=1(y<0)\quad \text{ for $y\in\{-M,\dots,M\}$,} \tag{2}\label{2}$$ $$p_{M,n}=0,\quad p_{-M,n}=1 \quad \text{ for $n\in\{1,\dots,N\}$. }\tag{3}\label{3}$$ This makes it easy to compute the solution for any given $N,M,z$.

Mathematica's command RSolve cannot do anything with partial difference equation \eqref{1}. However, clearly, the formula $p_{y,n}=s^y t_s^n$ defines a solution to \eqref{1} for any complex $s\ne0$ and $t_s:=\frac s4+\frac1{4s}+\frac12$. So, if (say) for some natural $k$ and some complex $c_1,\dots,c_k,s_1,\dots,s_k$ the formula $$p_{y,n}=\sum_{j=1}^k c_j s_j^y t_{s_j}^n \tag{4}\label{4}$$ defines a solution to the boundary conditions \eqref{2} and \eqref{3}, then \eqref{4} actually defines the unique solution to the boundary value problem \eqref{1}--\eqref{3}. More generally, one may want to try to find the solution to \eqref{1}--\eqref{3} in the form $$p_{y,n}=\int_U \mu(du) s_u^y t_{s_u}^n \tag{4a}\label{4a}$$ for some complex-valued measure $\mu$ on some measurable space $(U,\mathcal U)$ and some measurable function $U\ni u\mapsto s_u\in\Bbb C$.


Another expression for $p_{y,n}$ can be obtained using the reflection principle and the multinomial (here, more specifically, trinomial) formula.

Indeed, for any integer $z\in(-M,M)$, \begin{equation*} p_{z,N}=\sum_{n=0}^{N-1}P(|z+S_j|<M\ \forall j\in[n],\ z+S_n=1-M,U_{n+1}=-1), \end{equation*} where $S_n:=\sum_{i=1}^n U_i$ (so that $S_0=0$), $U_i:=X_i-Y_i$, and $[n]:=\{1,\dots,n\}$. The $U_i$'s are i.i.d., with $P(U_i=\pm1)=1/4$ and $P(U_i=0)=1/2$. So, \begin{equation*} p_{z,N}=\frac14\sum_{n=0}^{N-1}q_n, \tag{10}\label{10} \end{equation*} where \begin{equation*} q_n:=q_{M,z,n}:=P(S_j\in(a_-,a_+)\ \forall j\in[n],\ S_n=b), \end{equation*} where \begin{equation*} a_\pm:=\pm M-z,\quad b:=1-M-z. \end{equation*}

In turn, by multiple reflection of the symmetric random walk $(S_j)$ with jumps in the set $\{-1,1\}$ (cf. e.g. Proposition 4), \begin{equation*} q_n=\sum_{k\in\Z}(-1)^kP(S_n=b_k), \tag{20}\label{20} \end{equation*} where \begin{equation*} b_k:=(-1)^k b+\frac{1-(-1)^k}2(a_++a_-)+k(a_+-a_-) \\ =(2k-(-1)^k)M-z+(-1)^k; \end{equation*} note that only finitely many summands in \eqref{20} are nonzero -- namely, the summands with $k$ such that $|b_k|\le n$. Further, $P(S_n=u)=0$ is $|u|>n$, and for integers $u\in[-n,n]$, by the trinomial formula, \begin{align*} P(S_n=u)&=\sum_{(n_0,n_1,n_{-1})\in T_{n,u}}\frac{n!}{n_0! n_1! n_{-1}!} \Big(\frac12\Big)^{n_0}\Big(\frac14\Big)^{n-n_0} \\ &=2^{-n-|u|}n!\sum_{j=0}^{j_{n,u}}\frac{2^{-2j}}{(n-|u|-2j)!(|u|+j)! j!}, \tag{30}\label{30} \end{align*} where $j_{n,u}:=\lfloor\frac{n-|u|}2\rfloor$ and $T_{n,u}$ is the set of all triples $(n_0,n_1,n_{-1})$ of nonnegative integers such that $n_0+n_1+n_{-1}=n$ and $n_1-n_{-1}=u$.

Collecting \eqref{10}, \eqref{20}, and \eqref{30}, we express $p_{z,N}$ as a triple sum, in $n,k,j$; \begin{equation} p_{z,N}=\frac14\sum_{n=0}^{N-1} 2^{-n}n! \sum_{k\in\Z}(-1)^k 2^{-|b_k|}\sum_{j=0}^{j_{n,b_k}}\frac{2^{-2j}}{(n-|b_k|-2j)!(|b_k|+j)! j!}; \end{equation} note that, if $|b_k|>n$, then $j_{n,b_k}<0$ and hence, by the standard convention, $\sum_{j=0}^{j_{n,b_k}}\ldots=0$.

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  • $\begingroup$ Yes, these kind of questions are pretty open ended. I am interested in what you can say in general about the solution - this answer gives quite a lot of nice information. Do I understand correctly that any complex number $s \neq 0$ provides a solution to (1), but it is uncertain whether any choice of $s$ will satisfy (2) and (3)? $\endgroup$
    – Nate River
    Commented May 26 at 21:17
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    $\begingroup$ @NateRiver : Yes, we "only" need to satisfy the boundary conditions. :-) $\endgroup$ Commented May 26 at 21:19
  • $\begingroup$ I tried to use the generating function for $p_{y,n}$ to solve (1), but that does not seem to be working well. $\endgroup$ Commented May 26 at 21:21
  • $\begingroup$ I have added details on using the reflection principle and the trinomial formula. $\endgroup$ Commented May 27 at 14:19
  • $\begingroup$ Thank you very much, I always appreciate your high effort answers. $\endgroup$
    – Nate River
    Commented May 27 at 14:35

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