This post solves the problem (hopefully) in case where $A$ is a closed convex set with "sufficiently smooth" boundary.
Preliminaries
Let $S_{n-1}$ be the unit-sphere in $\mathbb R^n$ and consider the mapping $u_A:\mathbb R^n \setminus A \to S_{n-1}$ defined by
$$
u_A(x):= (x-\Pi_A(x))/d_A(x),
$$
where $\Pi_A(x)$ is the closest point in $A$ from $x$ and $d_A(x):=\|x-\Pi_A(x)\| = \inf_{a \in A}\|x-a\|$ is the distance of $x$ from $A$. It is a classical result that $d_A$ is convex and continuously differentiable on the open set $\mathbb R^n \setminus A$, with derivative given by $\nabla d_A(x) = u_A(x)$. We will need the following condition.
Smoothness condition (SC1). $u_A$ is $L$-Lipschitz on $\mathbb R^n \setminus A$, for some $L \in [0,\infty)$.
As we will see later, the value of the smoothness condition (SC1) is that it allows us to compare $A^\varepsilon_V$ and $A^\varepsilon$ via differential calculs.
Examples and non-examples.
Thanks to this post, we know the following: https://mathoverflow.net/a/412746/78539
- (1) If $A$ is convex body (i.e compact and convex) of the form $A := \{x \in \mathbb R^n \mid f(x) \le 0\}$ for some $\mathcal C^2$ convex function with
$\min f < 0$, then the smoothness condition (SC1) is satisfied.
- (2) If $A$ is such that the polar cone of $A-x$ has dimension $\ge 2$ for some $x \in \partial A$ (e.g, if $A$ is a closed convex polytope with at least one vertex), then the smoothness condition (SC1) is not satisfied.
The result and proof
We now state the main theorem which will be proved in the remainder of this post
Theorem. Suppose $A$ is a closed convex set which satisfies the smoothness condition (SC1). Let $V$ be any subspace of $\mathbb R^n$ (random or not!) such that
$$
\mathbb P(\|P_Vu_A(x)\| \ge \alpha) \ge \beta,\text{ for all }x \in \mathbb R^n \setminus A,
\tag{*}
$$
where $P_V$ is the orthogonal projector for $V$ and $\alpha,\beta \in (0,1]$ are constants.
Then, for any $\varepsilon \in [0,2\alpha/L]$, we have the lower-bound
$$
\mathbb E_V \mathbb P_X(X \in A^\varepsilon_V) \ge \Phi(\Phi^{-1}(p)+\alpha\varepsilon)\cdot \beta,
$$
where $p:=\mathbb P(X \in A)$.
Of course, the above result can be nontrivial only when $\beta > p$.
Proof.
For any $x \in \mathbb R^n$ and sufficiently small $\varepsilon > 0$, we have the following chain of implications
$$
\begin{split}
x \not\in A^\epsilon_V &\implies x-\varepsilon v \not \in A\,\forall v \in V \cap B_n\\
&\implies d_A(x-\varepsilon v) > 0\,\forall v \in V \cap B_n\\
&\implies d_A(x) > \varepsilon v^\top u_A(x)-L\varepsilon\|v\|^2/2,\forall v \in V \cap B_n\\
&\implies d_A(x) > \varepsilon v^\top u_A(x)-L\varepsilon^2/2,\forall v \in V \cap B_n\\
&\implies d_A(x) > \varepsilon z^\top P_Vu_A(x) - L\varepsilon^2/2\,\forall z \in B_n\\
&\implies d_A(x) > \varepsilon \|P_Vu_A(x)\|-L\varepsilon^2/2.
\end{split}
$$
where
- the 3rd line is because the distance-to-$A$ function $d_A$ is differentiable on $\mathbb R^n \setminus A$, and its derivative $u_A$ is $L$-Lipschitz by hypothesis, and
- the fifth line is because $P_V z \in V \cap B_n$ for all $z \in B_n$.
By a contrapositive argument, we have established that
$$
\begin{split}
A^\varepsilon_V\setminus A &\supseteq \{x \in \mathbb R^n \setminus A \mid d_A(x) \le \varepsilon \|P_Vu_A(x)\|-L\varepsilon^2/2\}\\
& \supseteq \{x \in \mathbb R^n \mid 0 < d_A(X) \le \alpha\varepsilon-L\varepsilon^2/2,\, \|P_Vu_A(x)\| \ge \alpha\}.
\end{split}
\tag{1}
$$
Thus, for each $x \in \mathbb R^n$, sufficiently small $\varepsilon > 0$, we have
$$
\begin{split}
\mathbb E_V[1_{\{x \in A^\varepsilon_V\setminus A\}}]
&\ge 1_{\{0 < d_A(x) \le \alpha \varepsilon - L\varepsilon^2/2\}}\cdot 1_{\{x \in \mathbb R^n\setminus A\}} \cdot \mathbb P_V(\|P_Vu_A(x)\| \ge \alpha)\\
&= 1_{\{0 < d_A(x) \le \alpha \varepsilon - L\varepsilon^2/2\}}\cdot \beta,
\end{split}
$$
Taking expectations w.r.t $X$ then gives
$$
\begin{split}
\mathbb E_V\mathbb P_X(X \in A^\varepsilon_V) - \mathbb P(X \in A) &= \mathbb E_V\mathbb P_X(X \in A^\varepsilon_V\setminus A)\\
&= \mathbb E_X\mathbb P_V(X \in A^\varepsilon_V\setminus A)\\
&= \mathbb E_X\mathbb E_V[1_{\{X \in A^\varepsilon_V\setminus A\}}]\\ &\ge \mathbb E_X[1_{\{0 < d_A(X) \le \alpha\varepsilon-L\varepsilon^2\}}]\cdot \beta\\
&=\mathbb P(0 < d_A(X) \le \alpha\varepsilon-L\varepsilon^2)\cdot\beta\\
&= \mathbb P(0 < d_A(X) \le \alpha\varepsilon-L\varepsilon^2)\cdot\beta.
\end{split}
$$
Now, for sufficiently small $\varepsilon$, one has
$$
\mathbb P(0 < d_A(X) \le \alpha\varepsilon-L\varepsilon^2/2) \ge \alpha g(p)\varepsilon(1+o_\varepsilon(1)),
$$
where $g$ is the gaussian isoperimetric profile defined in the other answers. The remainder of the proof follows exactly the same path as the others. $\Box$
Corollary. Let $V$ be uniform over the Grassmannian of $k$-dimensional subspaces of $\mathbb R^n$. Then, under the above smoothness condition, it holds for every $t \in (0,\sqrt{k/n})$ and $\varepsilon \in [0,2\alpha_t/L]$ with $\alpha_t := \sqrt{k/n}-t$ that
$$
\mathbb E_V\mathbb P_X(X \in A^\varepsilon_V) \ge \Phi(\Phi^{-1}(p)+\alpha_t\varepsilon)\cdot (1-e^{-\Omega(t^2d)}).
$$
Proof. Follows from previous theorem and the fact that
$$
\inf_{x \in \mathbb R^n\setminus A}\mathbb P(\|P_Vu_A(x)\| \ge \sqrt{k/n}-t) \ge \inf_{\theta \in S_{n-1}}\mathbb P(\|P_V\theta\| \ge \sqrt{k/n}-t) \ge 1-e^{-\Omega(t^2d)},
$$
where the last step is via chi-squared concentration (as in the other answers). $\quad\quad\quad\Box$