Let $g:\mathbb R \to \mathbb R $ be a continuous function which is
- "sufficiently smooth" (e.g $\mathcal C^3$) around $0$, and
- "sufficiently integrable" (e.g integrable w.r.t $N(0,1)$).
Let $d'$ and $d$ be positive integers tending to infinity such that $d'/d \to \rho \in (0,\infty)$.
Let $X$ be an $d' \times d$ random matrix with iid rows $x_1,\ldots,x_D$ from $N(0,(1/d)I_d)$, let $\widetilde{X}$ be the $d'\times d$ random matrix with rows $\widetilde{x}_i := x_i/\|x_i\|$. Thus each $\widetilde{x}_i$ is uniformly distributed on the unit-sphere in $\mathbb R^{d}$.
For $x \sim N(0,(1/d)I_d)$ independent of $X$, define an $d' \times d'$ random psd matrices $B$ and $\widetilde{B}$ by $$ \begin{split} b_{ij} &:= (x_i^\top x_j)\mathbb E_x[g(x^\top x_i)g(x^\top x_j)],\\ \widetilde{b}_{ij} &:= (\widetilde{x}_i^\top \widetilde{x}_j)\mathbb E_x[g(\widetilde{x}^\top \widetilde{x}_i)g(\widetilde{x}^\top \widetilde{x}_j)]. \end{split} $$
Question. Are the following true ? $$ \begin{split} \|B-g(0)^2 XX^\top\|_{op} &\overset{p}{\to} 0,\\ \|\widetilde{B}-g(0)^2 \widetilde{X}\widetilde{X}^\top\|_{op} &\overset{p}{\to} 0. \end{split} $$
Empirical evidence
Here are results for some experiments with $d'=200$ and $d=300$, and different choices for $g$, both smooth and rough. Judgin from these observations, it seems the above question is affirmative!
An sloppy attempt
Let us give a heuristic (and incorrect!) argument why one would expect $$ \|\widetilde{B}-g(0)^2\widetilde{X}\widetilde{X}^\top\|_{op} \overset{p}{\to} 0 $$ to hold.
For simplicity of notation, let $w_i:=\widetilde{x}_i$ henceforth. Let the matrix $\widetilde{U}$ be the $n \times n$ random psd matrix be defined by $\widetilde{u}_{ij} := \mathbb E_z[g(z^\top w_i)g(z^\top w_j)]$, where $z=(z_1,\ldots,z_d)$ is uniform on the unit-sphere on $\mathbb R^d$, and independent of the $w_i$'s.
Note that $\widetilde{B}$ the Hadamard product of $\widetilde{U}$ with $\widetilde{X}\widetilde{X}^\top$.
Now, due to rotational-invariance, we may write $\widetilde{u}_{ij} = u_d(z_i^\top z_j)$, where $u_d:[-1,1] \to \mathbb R$ is defined by $$ u_d(t) := \mathbb E_z[g(z_1)g(tz_1+(1-t^2)^{1/2} z_2)]. $$ Thus, $\widetilde{B}$ is a dot-product kernel matrix, via an envelop function $u_d$ which varies with the dimension $d$. This dependence on $d$ is bad news for us.
Let us ignore the dependence of $u_d$ on $d$. Of course, this is incorrect (and will be the only sloppy part of our arguments), but let's do it anyways.
We can then invoke Theorem 2.3 of El Karoui '10 to get that $\|\widetilde{U}-A\|_{op} \overset{p}{\to} 0$, where $$ A := u_d(0) 1_{d'}1_{d'}^\top + u_d'(0)\widetilde{X}\widetilde{X}^\top + \gamma I_{d'}, $$ with $\gamma := u_d(1)-u_d(0)-u_d'(0)$.
Finally, using exponential-in-$d$ concentration of $z_1^2 + z_2^2$, it is to see that
Fact. If $G:\mathbb R^2 \to \mathbb R$ is a continuous function, then $\mathbb E_z[G(z_1,z_2)] \to G(0,0)$.
We deduce that if our $g$ is $\mathcal C^1$ at $0$, then
$$ \begin{split} u_d(1) &= \mathbb E_z[g(z_1)^2] \to g(0)^2,\\ u_d(0) &=\mathbb E_z[g(z_1)g(z_2)] \to g(0)^2,\\ u_d'(0) &= \mathbb E_z[z_1 g(z_1)g'(z_2)] \to 0,\\ \gamma &= u_d(1)-u_d(0)-u_d'(0) \to 0, \end{split} $$
from which it would follow that $\|\widetilde{U}-g(0)^2 1_{d'}1_{d'}\|_{op} \overset{p}{\to} 0$, and so $\|\widetilde{B}-g(0)^2 \widetilde{X}\widetilde{X}^\top\|_{op} \overset{p}{\to} 0$, as claimed.