Let $d$ be a large positive integer. Let $x$ be uniformly distributed on the unit-sphere in $\mathbb R^d$ and let $a$ and $b$ be perpendicular vectors in $\mathbb R^d$, i.e such that $a^\top b=0$. Let $f:\mathbb R \to \mathbb R$ be a continuous function which is twice-continuously differentiable at $0$ (you may assume more regularity if that helps).
Question. How large can the absolute difference $$ \Delta(a,b)=|\mathbb E[f(x^\top a)f(x^\top b)] - \mathbb E[f(x^\top a)]\mathbb E[f(x^\top b)]| $$ be as a function of the dimension $d$ ?
Observation 1. In the case where $x \sim N(0,I_d)$, or more generally, with any diagonal covariance matrix, we have $\Delta(a,b) = 0$. Indeed, in this case, the joint distribution of $(x^\top a,x^\top b)$ is $N(0, C)$, where $C$ is the $2 \times 2$ psd matrix with entries given by
- $c_{11}=\mathbb E[(x^\top a)^2] = \mbox{trace}(aa^\top)=\|a\|^2$,
- $c_{12}=c_{21}=\mathbb E[(x^\top a)(x^\top b)] = \mbox{trace}(ab^\top) = a^\top b = 0$,
- $c_{22}=\mathbb E[(x^\top b)^2] = \mbox{trace}(bb^\top)=\|b\|^2$.
Thus, $x^\top a$ and $x^\top b$ are jointly gaussian random variables with zero correlation, and so are independent. Thus $\Delta(a,b) = 0$.
Observation 2. Since $d$ is large both $x^\top a$ and $x^\top b$ are close to centered normal random variables with variance $\|a\|^2/d$ and $\|b\|^2/d$ respectively, so maybe an adaptation of the previous argument might be of use ?