[Migrated from Math Stack Exchange]
More than a year ago, I posted the following on the Math Stack Exchange.
Consider $2^n-1$. Based on checking a few small numbers for $n$ (in fact, the first ten natural numbers) we might "conclude" that "$n$ is prime if and only if $2^n-1$ is prime." However, further investigation shows that for $n=11$, $2^n-1$ is not prime. Thus our claim that "if $n$ is prime then $2^n-1$ is prime" is a near miss. However, we can prove its reverse, that "if $2^n-1$ is prime then $n$ is prime". I am looking for some elementary number theoretic examples that both directions of our eventually fake biconditional are near misses.
To my great surprise, I haven't received even a near miss comment, let alone an answer. I know that the notion of "near miss" is disputable. Thus you might want to ignore my example above, and give an example of a biconditional statement (number-theoretic or not, historical or not, made-up or not) that seems to be true for some reasons (e.g., observing a number of cases, or intuition, etc) in both directions, but then it turns out that it is, in fact, false in both directions.