A theorem in Cummings-Magidor, Martin's Maximum and weak square:
Theorem. Assume MM. Then we have, for $\lambda>\omega$,
- $\square_{\omega_1,\omega_1}$ fails.
- If $\mathrm{cf}(\lambda)=\omega$, then $\square_{\lambda,\lambda}$ fails.
- If $\mathrm{cf}(\lambda)=\omega_1<\lambda$, then $\square_{\lambda,<\lambda}$ fails.
- If $\mathrm{cf}(\lambda)>\omega_1$, then $\square_{\lambda,<\mathrm{cf}(\lambda)}$ fails.
(In fact, in 2, even $\mathrm{Apr}_\lambda$ fails, but I haven't found the reference yet.)
Moreover, the theorem is also optimal in the following sense: It is consistent with MM that
- $\square_{\lambda,\lambda}$ holds for all $\lambda$ with $\mathrm{cf}(\lambda)=\omega_1<\lambda$,
- $\square_{\lambda,\mathrm{cf}(\lambda)}$ holds for all $\lambda$ with $\mathrm{cf}(\lambda)>\omega_1$.
I think this is the strongest negation of (Jensen's) squares that we know. If not then please let me know.
$\square_{\kappa,\kappa}$ is equivalent to existence of special $\kappa^+$-Aronszajn tree. Therefore the question is equivalent to asking whether it is consistent that if $\kappa^+$ is a successor cardinal then there is no special $\kappa^+$-Aronszajn tree.