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My actual question appears at the bottom of this posting.

Suppose $$ \Pr(\Lambda\in d\ell) = \frac 1{\Gamma(\alpha)} \left( \frac\ell m\right)^{\alpha-1} e^{-\ell/m}\, \left( \frac{d\ell} m \right) \text{ for } \ell>0, $$ so $\Lambda$ is a random variable with a gamma distribution with expected value $\alpha m$ and variance $\alpha m^2$.

Let the conditional distribution of the random variable $N$, given $\Lambda$, be $$ N\mid\Lambda \sim \operatorname{Poisson}(\Lambda). \tag 1 $$ Then the marginal (``unconditional'') distribution of $N$ is a negative binomial distribution: \begin{align*} & \Pr(N=n) \\[10pt] = {} & \operatorname E(\Pr(N=n\mid\Lambda)) = \operatorname E\left( \frac{\Lambda^n e^{-\Lambda}}{n!} \right) \\[10pt] = {} & \int_0^\infty \frac{\ell^n e^{-\ell}}{n!} \cdot \frac1{\Gamma(\alpha)} \left( \frac\ell m\right)^{\alpha-1} e^{-\ell/m} \, \left( \frac{d\ell} m \right) \\[8pt] = {} & \frac{(n+\alpha-1)(n+\alpha-2)(n+\alpha-3)\cdots\alpha}{n!} \left( \frac m{m+1} \right)^n \left( \frac1{m+1} \right)^\alpha \\[8pt] = {} & \binom{-\alpha}{\phantom{-}n} p^\alpha (-q)^n \text{ for } n\in\{0,1,2,3,\ldots\} \tag 2 \end{align*} (so that $p+q=1$), where $$ \binom{-\alpha}{\phantom{-}n} = \frac{\overbrace{-\alpha(-\alpha-1)(-\alpha-2)\cdots(-\alpha-n+1)}^\text{$n$ factors}}{n!}. $$ This has expected value $\alpha q/p$ and variance $\alpha q/p^2$.

Perhaps it is less widely known that the same negative binomial distribution arises as a compound Poisson distribution:

Suppose $\Pr(X=x) = \dfrac{-q^x}{x\log(1-q)}$ for $x=1,2,3,\ldots$, and let $X_1,X_2,X_3,\ldots$ be independent copies of this random variable. (This is called the logarithmic series distribution since $\sum_{x=1}^\infty q^x/x = -\log(1-q).$) Suppose $M\sim\operatorname{Poisson}(-\alpha\log(1-q))$ and $M$ is independent of $X_1,X_2,X_3,\ldots.$

Then $$ N = \sum_{i=1}^M X_i \tag 3 $$ also has the same negative binomial distribution that appears on line $(2)$ above.

My question is: How can we construct a single probability space that is the domain of all of the random variables mentioned here, in such a way that the $N$ defined on line $(1)$ above and the $N$ defined on line $(3)$ above are not just two random variables sharing the same distribution, but are just one and the same random variable?

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  • $\begingroup$ I think you asked a related question (involving modeling) some time ago (which I think I answered). If so, can you give a link to that question? $\endgroup$ Commented Apr 16, 2023 at 15:35
  • $\begingroup$ @IosifPinelis mathoverflow.net/questions/435496/… $\endgroup$ Commented Apr 16, 2023 at 19:31
  • $\begingroup$ Here's another possibly related item: mathoverflow.net/questions/427161/… $\endgroup$ Commented Apr 16, 2023 at 20:13
  • $\begingroup$ Could you clarify what you mean by "construct" (beyond proving that such a probability space exists)? $\endgroup$
    – Steve
    Commented Apr 18, 2023 at 16:08
  • $\begingroup$ @Steve : I suppose I mean to describe all of the dependences among the random variables --- showing how they all fit together. $\endgroup$ Commented Apr 18, 2023 at 21:04

2 Answers 2

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Consider a Poisson process $N$ and an independent Gamma process $\Gamma$, with parameters $\gamma$ and $\lambda$.

Given $t>0$, the distribution of $N_{\Gamma_t}$ is a mixture of Poisson distributions whose parameter is randomly chosen according to a Gamma distribution.

The processes $\Gamma$ and $N$ are subordinators without drift, so $$\Gamma_t = \sum_{0 \le s \le t}\Delta\Gamma_s \text{ and } N_{\Gamma_t} = \sum_{0 \le s \le t}(N_{\Gamma_s}-N_{\Gamma_{s-}}).$$ Moreover, the process $(\Delta\Gamma_t)_{t \ge 0}$ is a Poisson point process with values in $[0,+\infty[$ and with intensity $\nu$ on $]0,+\infty[$ equal to the Levy measure of the subordinator $\Gamma$: $$\mathrm{d}\nu(x) = \gamma x^{-1}\exp(-\lambda x).$$

Conditionally on the process $\Gamma$, the random variables $(N_{\Gamma_s}-N_{\Gamma_{s-}})_{s>0}$ are independent and for each $s>0$, the distribution of $N_{\Gamma_s}-N_{\Gamma_{s-}}$ is Poisson with parameter $\Delta\Gamma_s$. Thus $$P[N_{\Gamma_s}-N_{\Gamma_{s-}}>0\mid\Gamma] = 1-e^{-\Delta\Gamma_s},$$ and for each $n \ge 1$, $$P[N_{\Gamma_s}-N_{\Gamma_{s-}}=n\mid\Gamma] = \frac{s^n}{n!}e^{-\Delta\Gamma_s}.$$

Therefore, the jump-times of the process $N_{\Gamma_\cdot}$ are given by a Poisson process $J$ with intensity $$\int_0^\infty(1-e^{-x}) \, \mathrm{d}\nu(x) = \gamma\int_0^\infty(e^{-\lambda x}-e^{-(\lambda+1)x}) \, \frac{\mathrm{d}x}{x} = \gamma \ln\frac{\lambda+1}{\lambda}.$$ For each $n \ge 1$, the times $s$ such that $N_{\Gamma_s}-N_{\Gamma_{s-}}=n$ are given by a Poisson process $J^{(n)}$ with intensity $$\int_0^\infty \frac{x^n}{n!}e^{-x} \, \mathrm{d}\nu(x) = \gamma\int_0^\infty\frac{x^{n-1}}{n!}e^{-(\lambda+1)x} \, \mathrm{d}x = \frac{\gamma}{n}(\lambda+1)^{-n}.$$ And since the Poisson process $J$ is the superposition of the independent Poisson processes $(J^{(n)})_{n \ge 1}$, the size of the successive jumps of the process $N_{\Gamma_\cdot}$ form an i.i.d. sequence, independent of $\Gamma$, whose distribution is given by $$p(n) := \frac{\frac{\gamma}{n}(\lambda+1)^{-n}}{\gamma \ln\frac{\lambda+1}{\lambda}} = \frac{q^n/n}{-\ln(1-q)} \text{ with } q = (\lambda+1)^{-1}.$$

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$\newcommand\R{\mathbb R}\newcommand{\N}{\mathbb N}\newcommand\la\lambda\newcommand{\be}{\beta}\newcommand{\al}{\alpha}\newcommand\La\Lambda$It is given that the random variable (r.v.) $\La$ has the gamma distribution with parameters $\al,m$. Let $\be:=m$ -- this is being done so because we want to denote by $m$ values of the random variable (r.v.) $M$.

Let $U_1$ and $U_2$ be independent r.v.'s uniformly distributed on $(0,1)$. For positive real $\la,\al,\be$, let $F_\la$ and $F_{\al,\be}$ denote, respectively, the c.d.f.'s of the Poisson distribution with parameter $\la$ and the gamma distribution with parameters $\al,\be$. Then $F_\la^{-1}(U_1)$ and $F_{\al,\be}^{-1}(U_2)$ will be independent r.v.'s with the Poisson distribution with parameter $\la$ and the gamma distribution with parameters $\al,\be$, respectively; as usual, for any c.d.f. $F$ and any $u\in(0,1)$, we let \begin{equation*} F^{-1}(u):=\min\{u\in\R\colon F(u)\ge u\}. \end{equation*}

Then, your formula (1) will hold if $\La=F_{\al,\be}^{-1}(U_2)$ and $N=h(U_1,U_2)$, where \begin{equation*} h(u_1,u_2):=F_{F_{\al,\be}^{-1}(u_2)}^{-1}(u_1) \end{equation*} for $u_1,u_2$ in $(0,1)$. Informally, given $U_2=u_2$, we first generate the value $\la:=F_{\al,\be}^{-1}(u_2)$ of $\La$ and then, given $U_1=u_1$, the value $n:=F_\la^{-1}(u_1)$ of $N$. Without loss of generality (wlog), for $j\in\{1,2\}$, \begin{equation*} U_j=\sum_{i=1}^\infty\frac{B_{ij}}{2^i}, \end{equation*} where the $B_{ij}$'s are independent Bernoulli r.v.'s with parameter $1/2$.

So, wlog \begin{equation*} N=f(B_{11},B_{12},B_{21},B_{22},B_{31},B_{32},\dots) \tag{10}\label{10} \end{equation*} and \begin{equation*} \La=l(B_{11},B_{12},B_{21},B_{22},B_{31},B_{32},\dots) \tag{20}\label{20} \end{equation*} for certain Borel functions $f$ and $l$ on $\R^\N$.

On the other hand, we want to construct r.v.'s $M,X_1,X_2,\dots$, defined on the same probability space as $N$, so that that \begin{equation*} N=g(M,X_1,X_2,\dots), \tag{30}\label{30} \end{equation*} where $g(m,x_1,x_2,\dots):=x_1+\dots+x_m$ for nonnegative integers $m,x_1,x_2,\dots$.

The latter task can be carried out as follows. Let $U$ be a r.v. uniformly distributed on $(0,1)$. Let $G_{p,\al}$ be the c.d.f. of the negative binomial distribution with parameters $p,\al$. Forgetting any previous definitions of $N$, let now \begin{equation*} N:=G_{p,\al}^{-1}(U), \tag{40}\label{40} \end{equation*} so that $N$ has the negative binomial distribution with parameters $p,\al$.

All the r.v.'s in question will be considered defined on the standard probability space $((0,1),|\cdot|)$, where $|\cdot|$ is the Lebesgue measure. In particular, the r.v. $U$ may be assumed defined by the formula $U(u):=u$ for $u\in(0,1)$.

Let \begin{equation*} p_{n,m,x_1,\dots,x_m}:=P(N=n,M=m,X_1=x_1,\dots,X_m=x_m), \tag{50}\label{50} \end{equation*} with $p_n=P(N=n)$ and $p_{n,m}=P(N=n,M=m)$,
assuming for a second at this point that $N,M,X_1,X_2,\dots$ are as in the paragraph of your post containing formula (3) and $n,m,x_1,x_2,\dots$ are the corresponding values such that $p_{n,m,x_1,\dots,x_m}>0$; of course, actually we have to construct r.v.'s $M,X_1,X_2,\dots$ so that all the equalities \eqref{50} hold -- assuming \eqref{40}.

For $n=0,1,\dots$, consider the disjoint intervals \begin{equation*} E_n:=\{u\in(0,1)\colon G_{p,\al}^{-1}(u)=n\}. \end{equation*} Then, by \eqref{40}, $N=n$ on $E_n$, and $P(N=n)=|E_n|=p_n$, as desired.

Next, for each $n$, partition $E_n$ into intervals $E_{n,m}$ so that $|E_{n,m}|=p_{n,m}$ for each $m=0,1,\dots$. Letting now $M=m$ on $E_{n,m}$, we get $P(N=n,M=m)=|E_{n,m}|=p_{n,m}$ for all $n,m$, as desired.

Next, partition each interval $E_{n,m}$ into intervals $E_{n,m,x_1}$ so that $|E_{n,m,x_1}|=p_{n,m,x_1}$ for each $x_1=1,2,\dots$. Letting now $X_1=x_1$ on $E_{n,m,x_1}$, we get $P(N=n,M=m,X_1=x_1)=|E_{n,m,x_1}|=p_{n,m,x_1}$ for all $n,m,x_1$, as desired.

Continuing in this manner, we will indeed construct r.v.'s $M,X_1,X_2,\dots$ so that all the equalities \eqref{50} hold -- assuming \eqref{40}. Moreover, then \eqref{30} will hold almost surely (a.s.), because \begin{equation*} \begin{aligned} & P(N\ne g(M,X_1,X_2,\dots)) \\ &=\sum_{n=0}^\infty\sum_{m=0}^\infty\sum_{x_1=1}^\infty\dots\sum_{x_m=1}^\infty p_{n,m,x_1,\dots,x_m}\,1(n\ne\textstyle\sum_{i=1}^m x_i) \\ &=\sum_{n=0}^\infty\sum_{m=0}^\infty\sum_{x_1=1}^\infty\dots\sum_{x_m=1}^\infty 0=0. \end{aligned} \end{equation*}

The above construction used expression \eqref{30} of $N$ as a function of discrete r.v.'s $M,X_1,X_2,\dots$.

Quite similarly, we can construct independent Bernoulli r.v.'s $B_{ij}$ with parameter $1/2$ so that \eqref{10} hold -- for the same r.v. $N$, defined by \eqref{40}. Letting now $\La$ be defined by \eqref{20}, we will satisfy condition (1) in your post. $\quad\Box$

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