1
$\begingroup$

Let $X=(X_n)_{n\in\mathbb N}$ be a stochastic process in $\{0,1\}^{\mathbb N}$ with distribution $\mu$. I do not at first make any assumptions about $X$ being stationary or having any kind of correlations or associations. Let $Y=(Y_n)_{n\in\mathbb N}$ be an iid Bernoulli process with distribution product measure $\pi_p$, i.e. $\mathbb P(Y_n=1)=p$ for all $n$ and independently of all other $Y_j$.

I want to study the conditions under which $\pi_p\preceq \mu$, that $X$ stochastically dominates $Y$. The order $X(\omega)\geq Y(\omega)$ uses the natural ordering of their sample paths for each $\omega\in\Omega$ a common probability space upon which they are constructed, for which I just say $X\geq Y$.

From Lemma 1.1 in Liggett et al. (1997), I can conclude that a sufficient condition for $\pi_p\preceq \mu$ is that $$ \mathbb P(X_n=1\mid X_{s_j}=\epsilon_{s_j}, \text{ for all } j=1,2,\ldots,m)\geq p \tag{1}\label{eq1} $$ for any $n$ and any $\{s_1,s_2,\ldots,s_m\}\subset \{1,2,\ldots,n-1\}$ and any $\epsilon=(\epsilon_n)_{n\in\mathbb N}$. Of course we must be conditioning on an event of positive probability, so I always assume that.

My question is on why this condition isn't also necessary.

I know that $\pi_p\preceq \mu$ if and only if there exists a coupling of $X$ and $Y$ such that $\mathbb P(X\geq Y)=1$. (I hope it is clear that I am now talking about coupled "copies of" $X$ and $Y$ with the appropriate marginals.) Such a coupling must also satisfy (\ref{eq1}) yes?

I use $\mathbb P^\epsilon$ to refer to the conditional joint distribution of $(X,Y)$, conditioned on $X_{s_j}=\epsilon_{s_j}$ for $j=1,2,\ldots,m$: $$\mathbb P^\epsilon(X_n=1)=\mathbb P^\epsilon(X_n=1,Y_n=0)+\mathbb P^\epsilon(X_n=1,Y_n=1)$$ Since the coupling satisfies $\mathbb P(X\geq Y)=1$, we also get $\mathbb P^\epsilon(X\geq Y)=1$ (assuming we condition on an event of positive probability). Hence $\mathbb P^\epsilon(X_n=1,Y_n=1)=\mathbb P^\epsilon(Y_n=1)=p$ (since $\{X_n=0,Y_n=1\}$ has probability zero under $\mathbb P$ and $\mathbb P^\epsilon$), therefore we clearly have $\mathbb P^\epsilon(X_n=1)\geq p$ as desired.

So I have (\ref{eq1}, for all $n,\epsilon,m$) if and only if $\pi_p\preceq\mu$.

Another way I look at it is from a simulation point of view. Assuming I have complete access to the distribution of $X$ (simulating $Y$ is easy), I can simulate coupled $(X_1,Y_1)$ with $\mathbb P(X_1=1)\geq p$. Then simulate $X_2$ conditioned on the realized value of $X_1$ (which obviously has positive probability for nontrivial $p$), etc. At every step we must have the probability that $X_n=1$ is at least $p$ (conditioned on an event of positive probability). Of course, maybe the structure of $X$ could possibly prevent this type of simulation? Though as long as this is possible, then (\ref{eq1}), for all $n,m,\epsilon$, should be necessary and sufficient for $\pi_p\preceq \mu$.

Am I misunderstanding something?

Liggett & Steif (2006) explores the situation when $X$ has certain associations, and there are many other papers exploring special cases for certain types of processes as well.

Primary References:
Liggett et al (1997) https://www.jstor.org/stable/2959530
Liggett & Steif (2006) https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.anihpb.2005.04.002
(and follow any references from those and papers that cite them)

$\endgroup$
8
  • $\begingroup$ 1) I believe the inequality $X\le Y$ should be reversed everywhere. 2) "$\mathbb P^\epsilon(Y_n=1)=p$" why? $\endgroup$
    – zhoraster
    Commented Apr 20, 2022 at 12:30
  • $\begingroup$ @zhoraster oops, yes, I will fix the inequalities. $\mathbb P^\epsilon(Y_n=1)=p$ for any $\epsilon$ and $n$ because $Y$ is an iid Bernoulli process and $\mathbb P^\epsilon$ is the coupling probability measure for $(X,Y)$ which respects $Y$'s marginal. I know I've abused notation a bit which made that unclear -- or I could be misunderstanding something of course. $\endgroup$
    – jdods
    Commented Apr 20, 2022 at 16:10
  • $\begingroup$ I've also made some progress here I think in that, the condition given is necessary and sufficient for processes on $\{0,1\}^{\mathbb N}$ (essentially by my argument here, if correct) but not on $\{0,1\}^{\mathbb Z}$ or more complicated lattices. $\endgroup$
    – jdods
    Commented Apr 20, 2022 at 16:16
  • $\begingroup$ I still don't get it. "$\mathbb P^\epsilon$ is a coupling probability measure which respects $Y$'s marginal" sounds quite cryptic. You started with $\mathbb P$, and $\mathbb P^\epsilon$ originates from it, so why should it respect anything? $\endgroup$
    – zhoraster
    Commented Apr 20, 2022 at 16:37
  • 1
    $\begingroup$ I guess it does not. I'll post a counterexample soon. $\endgroup$
    – zhoraster
    Commented Apr 20, 2022 at 17:15

1 Answer 1

2
$\begingroup$

Ok, here is a counterexample with the index set $\{1,2\}$ (you can easily extend it to whole $\mathbb N$ if you wish).

Let $(Y_1,Y_2)$ be independent Bernoulli($1/2$) and set $$ (X_1,X_2) = \begin{cases} (Y_1,Y_2), & Y_1 + Y_2>0,\\ (0,1), & Y_1 = Y_2 = 0. \end{cases} $$

In this case $$ \mathrm P(X_1 = 1\mid X_2 = 1) = \frac{P(X_1 = 1, X_2 = 1)}{P(X_2 = 1)} = \frac{1/4}{3/4} = \frac13<\frac12. $$

$\endgroup$
2
  • $\begingroup$ Ah, yes... ok, now I see what I was misunderstanding! I was mistakenly assuming that conditioning on some $X$ event should preserve $Y$'s marginal probabilities. Sorry it took me so long to understand that. Thanks for the nice counter-example! So I'll have to think about this problem much more carefully... I had a fundamental misunderstanding of the complexity of the problem... $\endgroup$
    – jdods
    Commented Apr 20, 2022 at 17:39
  • $\begingroup$ Just to clarify, it is the case that $\mathbb P(X_n=1\mid X\in E)=\mathbb P(Y_n=1\mid X\in E)$ since the coupling satisfies $\mathbb P( X\geq Y)=1$. But my mistake was that $\mathbb P(Y_n=1\mid X\in E)\neq\mathbb P(Y_n=1)$ since the coupling could have $Y_n$ depend on $(X_j)_{j<n}$ in a variety of ways. $\endgroup$
    – jdods
    Commented Apr 20, 2022 at 17:47

You must log in to answer this question.

Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged .