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John Baez
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I'm wondering if anyone has found, or can find, a sequence of statements $P(n)$ ($n \in \mathbb{N}$) such that:

  1. Heuristic arguments using probability theory suggest that all the statements $P(n)$ are true.

  2. One can prove in some widely accepted axiom system $X$, preferably by making the probabilisticheuristic arguments rigorous, that "$P(n)$ holds for infinitely many of the statements $P(n)$ are true$n$".

  3. One can prove that only finitely many of the statementsin some widely accepted axiom system $P(n)$ are provable$Y$ that "$X$ cannot prove (say in Peano arithmetic or ZFC)$\forall n P(n)$".

The goal here would be to find statements that are true 'just because they are probably true', not because we can put our finger on a reason why any individual one must be true.

An example of such a sequence of statements might be 'if $p_n$ is the $n$th prime, there are infinitely many repunit primes in base $p_n$'. However while this example meets condition 1 we seem far from having enough understanding of mathematics to prove 2, and 3 seems hopeless. I think we need a less charismatic sequence of statements that are more carefully crafted to the task at hand.

I'm wondering if anyone has found, or can find, a sequence of statements $P(n)$ ($n \in \mathbb{N}$) such that:

  1. Heuristic arguments using probability theory suggest that all the statements $P(n)$ are true.

  2. One can prove, preferably by making the probabilistic arguments rigorous, that infinitely many of the statements $P(n)$ are true.

  3. One can prove that only finitely many of the statements $P(n)$ are provable (say in Peano arithmetic or ZFC).

The goal here would be to find statements that are true 'just because they are probably true', not because we can put our finger on a reason why any individual one must be true.

An example of such a sequence of statements might be 'if $p_n$ is the $n$th prime, there are infinitely many repunit primes in base $p_n$'. However while this example meets condition 1 we seem far from having enough understanding of mathematics to prove 2, and 3 seems hopeless. I think we need a less charismatic sequence of statements that are more carefully crafted to the task at hand.

I'm wondering if anyone has found, or can find, a sequence of statements $P(n)$ ($n \in \mathbb{N}$) such that:

  1. Heuristic arguments using probability theory suggest that all the statements $P(n)$ are true.

  2. One can prove in some widely accepted axiom system $X$, preferably by making the heuristic arguments rigorous, that "$P(n)$ holds for infinitely $n$".

  3. One can prove in some widely accepted axiom system $Y$ that "$X$ cannot prove $\forall n P(n)$".

The goal here would be to find statements that are true 'just because they are probably true', not because we can put our finger on a reason why any individual one must be true.

An example of such a sequence of statements might be 'if $p_n$ is the $n$th prime, there are infinitely many repunit primes in base $p_n$'. However while this example meets condition 1 we seem far from having enough understanding of mathematics to prove 2, and 3 seems hopeless. I think we need a less charismatic sequence of statements that are more carefully crafted to the task at hand.

fixed typo
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John Baez
  • 22.2k
  • 3
  • 85
  • 169

I'm wondering if anyone has found, or can find, a sequence of statements $P(n)$ ($n \in \mathbb{N}$) such that:

  1. Heuristic arguments using probability theory suggestssuggest that all the statements $P(n)$ are true.

  2. One can prove, preferably by making the probabilistic arguments rigorous, that infinitely many of the statements $P(n)$ are true.

  3. One can prove that only finitely many of the statements $P(n)$ are provable (say in Peano arithmetic or ZFC).

The goal here would be to find statements that are true 'just because they are probably true', not because we can put our finger on a reason why any individual one must be true.

An example of such a sequence of statements might be 'if $p_n$ is the $n$th prime, there are infinitely many repunit primes in base $p_n$'. However while this example meets condition 1 we seem far from having enough understanding of mathematics to prove 2, and 3 seems hopeless. I think we need a less charismatic sequence of statements that are more carefully crafted to the task at hand.

I'm wondering if anyone has found, or can find, a sequence of statements $P(n)$ ($n \in \mathbb{N}$) such that:

  1. Heuristic arguments using probability theory suggests that all the statements $P(n)$ are true.

  2. One can prove, preferably by making the probabilistic arguments rigorous, that infinitely many of the statements $P(n)$ are true.

  3. One can prove that only finitely many of the statements $P(n)$ are provable (say in Peano arithmetic or ZFC).

The goal here would be to find statements that are true 'just because they are probably true', not because we can put our finger on a reason why any individual one must be true.

An example of such a sequence of statements might be 'if $p_n$ is the $n$th prime, there are infinitely many repunit primes in base $p_n$'. However while this example meets condition 1 we seem far from having enough understanding of mathematics to prove 2, and 3 seems hopeless. I think we need a less charismatic sequence of statements that are more carefully crafted to the task at hand.

I'm wondering if anyone has found, or can find, a sequence of statements $P(n)$ ($n \in \mathbb{N}$) such that:

  1. Heuristic arguments using probability theory suggest that all the statements $P(n)$ are true.

  2. One can prove, preferably by making the probabilistic arguments rigorous, that infinitely many of the statements $P(n)$ are true.

  3. One can prove that only finitely many of the statements $P(n)$ are provable (say in Peano arithmetic or ZFC).

The goal here would be to find statements that are true 'just because they are probably true', not because we can put our finger on a reason why any individual one must be true.

An example of such a sequence of statements might be 'if $p_n$ is the $n$th prime, there are infinitely many repunit primes in base $p_n$'. However while this example meets condition 1 we seem far from having enough understanding of mathematics to prove 2, and 3 seems hopeless. I think we need a less charismatic sequence of statements that are more carefully crafted to the task at hand.

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John Baez
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  • 3
  • 85
  • 169

Probably true, but provably unprovable

I'm wondering if anyone has found, or can find, a sequence of statements $P(n)$ ($n \in \mathbb{N}$) such that:

  1. Heuristic arguments using probability theory suggests that all the statements $P(n)$ are true.

  2. One can prove, preferably by making the probabilistic arguments rigorous, that infinitely many of the statements $P(n)$ are true.

  3. One can prove that only finitely many of the statements $P(n)$ are provable (say in Peano arithmetic or ZFC).

The goal here would be to find statements that are true 'just because they are probably true', not because we can put our finger on a reason why any individual one must be true.

An example of such a sequence of statements might be 'if $p_n$ is the $n$th prime, there are infinitely many repunit primes in base $p_n$'. However while this example meets condition 1 we seem far from having enough understanding of mathematics to prove 2, and 3 seems hopeless. I think we need a less charismatic sequence of statements that are more carefully crafted to the task at hand.