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I'm trying to show that the OP's conjecture is true iff it is true for any non-unital commutative sgrp of order $\ge 4$. Does any of your claims imply that we can get rid of the identity in a monoid without non-trivial units?
fixed a few more typos/mistakes, added a remark on commutativity, and a cross-reference to another non-answer dealing with the case of order-3 semigroups