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For questions about mathematical problems arising from the study of financial markets.

1 vote

Expected value as decision criterion in the context of rare events

Thanks for all the interesting perspectives on this question. It seems that there are two quite distinct reasons for focusing on expected value. The first is based on the law of large numbers, and wor …
David Harris's user avatar
  • 3,475
20 votes
10 answers
4k views

Expected value as decision criterion in the context of rare events

I have often seen discussions of what actions to take in the context of rare events in terms of expected value. For example, if a lottery has a 1 in 100 million chance of winning, and delivers a posit …
David Harris's user avatar
  • 3,475