Perhaps its easiest to first ask for the probability $P_0$ that the card does not move at all ($k=0$). One way to achieve this is to cut immediately below and above that card, with probability $1/2\times 1/2=1/4$. But any symmetric pair of cuts will do, for example you could cut at two cards below and two cards above, with probability $1/4\times 1/4$, or three cards above and three cards below, with probability $2^{-3}\times 2^{-3}$, and so on. Summing the geometric series gives $$P_0 = \sum_{n=1}^\infty \frac{1}{4^n}=\frac{1/4}{1-1/4}=\frac{1}{3}$$ For the general case you first start with a cut just below the card and a second cut $k+1$ cards above, with probability $1/4\times 2^{-k}$. Then extending this symmetrically at both sides and summing the geometric series gives you the additional factor $1/3$, and you arrive at the general formula $P_k=\frac{1}{3} \times 2^{-k}$. We are assuming here an infinite set of cards, to sum the geometric series to infinity. For a small number of cards the formula is not exact, as noted by Kevin in a comment.