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Will Jagy
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Odd. There is an article about this in the October M.A.A. Monthly, pages 737-742, by R. Thangadurai and A. Vatwani. They give an elementary argument to show $$ p \leq 2^{\phi(q) + 1} - 1.$$ The best unconditional result they report is T. Xylouris (2009), $$ p \leq c_1 q^{5.2}$$ which improves a 1992 result of Heath-Brown.

Apparently Oesterle showed that GRH implies $$ p \leq 70 q (\log q)^2 $$ which is much better. This was a private communication to the authors, not in the reference list.

Anyway, table of contents at CONTENTS

EDIT: I ran a little computer program for the GRH result, dropping the factor of 70... It certainly appears that the largest prime $q$ for which $ p > q (\log q)^2 $ is $q=5227$ with first prime congruent to $1\pmod q$ being $p=397253 = 1 + 76 \cdot 5227.$ Unprovable. Program run for $q < 8000000$ and print out only $ p > 0.9 \\, q \\, (\log q)^2. $

jagy@phobeusjunior:~/old drive/home/jagy/Cplusplus$ ./primes_in_progressions 
         2           3    3.12205
         3           7    1.93325
         7          29    1.09409
        19         191    1.15951
      5227      397253    1.03683
    170167    24504049    0.992619
   4722079  1104966487    0.99082
jagy@phobeusjunior:~/old drive/home/jagy/Cplusplus$ 
Will Jagy
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