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Joseph O'Rourke
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This question has been fully answered (the expected number of moves is $\infty$), as detailed in an addendum to the question. I place this community-wiki "answer" here so I can accept it (It let me!) and so (hopefully!) prevent the MO software-bot from re-asking the question.

Joseph O'Rourke
  • 150.9k
  • 36
  • 358
  • 958