The [coupon collector's problem][1] is a problem in probability theory that states the following (from wikipedia): > Suppose that there are $n$ coupons, from which coupons are being collected with replacement. What is the probability that more than $t$ sample trials are needed to collect all $n$ coupons? A generalization of this problem was proposed by Newmann & Shepp, by requiring that $k$ samples of each coupon be collected. The answer to this is known. I, however, need to calculate the answer to an even further generalization, which is: > How many sample trials are needed to collect a certain subset of $n$, call it $m$, at least $k$ times? Any help or a point in the right direction would be greatly appreciated. [1]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coupon_collector's_problem \(Edit:\) Here is an example to illustrate the problem: > Let's say we would like to collect > coupons that come with a certain brand > of cereal. We know there are 10 (read: > $n$) different types of coupons , but > we are really only interested in 5 > (read: $m$) of the 10 (since these > coupons apply to products we would > like to buy). We would like to also > give sets of these 5 coupons to our > friends, so they can share in the joy. > So, assuming every coupon has equal > chance to appear in any box of cereal, > how many boxes would you need to buy > to have 3 (read: $k$) sets of the 5 > coupons you are interested in? The difference that $m$ introduces to the problem is the following: For every coupon you collect, the odds of collecting a **new** coupon becomes less. If it was only $n$, then when you have collected all but the last coupon your chance of getting the last one in the next trial is $1/n$. If you are only interested in collecting $m$ though, the chance of collecting the last coupon on the next trial is $(n-m+1)/n$ **(Edit #2)**: This problem can be stated simply as a balls-and-bins problem. If we have $n$ bins, how many balls need to be thrown so that at least $m$ bins have at least $k$ balls?