I am surprised no one mentioned the work of Alan Sokal and coworkers on precisely this issue of weighted enumeration of spanning forests which is related to the $q\rightarrow 0$ limit of the Potts model as well as the multivariate Tutte polynomial. A determinant expression corresponds to a Fermionic (Grassmann/Berezin) integral with a quadratic `action' in the exponential. There is an analogue of the matrix-tree theorem for spanning forests with a Fermionic integral with quartic action see: [Fermionic field theory for trees and forests](http://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0403271) which appeared in PRL. Follow ups such as [Grassmann Integral Representation for Spanning Hyperforests](http://arxiv.org/abs/0706.1509) can be found by looking at [Sokal's papers on arxiv](http://arxiv.org/find/grp_math/1/au:+sokal/0/1/0/all/0/1). Note that there was a whole semester at the Isaac Newton Institute revolving around this topic: [Combinatorial identities and their applications in statistical mechanics](https://www.newton.ac.uk/event/csmw03/). One can even watch the videos of the talks. The one perhaps most relevant to this question is the talk by Andrea Sportiello in the fourth workshop.