The analogy doesn't quite give a number theoretic version of the Poincare conjecture. See Sikora, "Analogies between group actions on 3-manifolds and number fields" (arXiv:0107210): the author states the Poincare conjecture as "S3 is the only closed 3-manifold with no unbranched covers." The analogous statement in number theory is that Q is the only number field with no unramified extensions, and indeed he points out that there are a few known counterexamples, such as the imaginary quadratic fields with class number 1.
The paper also has a nice but short summary of the so-called "MKR dictionary" relating 3-manifolds to number fields in section 2. Morishita's expository article on the subject, arXiv:0904.3399, has more to say about what knot complements, meridians and longitudes, knot groups, etc. are, but I don't think there's an explanation of what knot surgery would be and so I'm not sure how Kirby calculus fits into the picture.