I have the following problem. If I can get some help, I would greatly appreciate it. I am trying to replicate a particular research paper and came across a problem:
Suppose $X$ is a birth death process (represents population size) that evolves by:
$X \to X+1$ if a birth occurs with rate $\mu$,
$X \to X-1$ if a death occurs with rate $\theta$.
Suppose $T_A$ is first passage time of a BD process from state $A$ to state $0$ and suppose $T_B$ is first passage time of another BD process from state $B$ to state $0$. They are both independent.
I need to find $P(T_A < T_B)$. That is, probability that a population of size $A$ goes to $0$ before population of size $B$.
By definition:
$$T_A = T_{A,A-1} + T_{A-1,A-2} + \dots + T_{1,0}$$
where $T_{i,i-1}$ represents first passage time from state $i$ to state $i-1$.
I read some articles online that mentioned that if $T = T_A - T_B$, then the CDF defined by:
$$G_T(t) := P(T \leq t)$$
is what I need. The paper suggested taking inverse Laplace of a CDF to obtain the CDF and evaluate it at $0$. It first suggested finding Laplace transform of $T$, which is given by
$$L[T] = E(e^{-ST}) = -\frac{L[T_A](s) L[T_B](-s)}{s}.$$
Then it suggested taking Laplace of $G_T(t)$ i.e. $L[G_T(t)]$. However,
$$L[G_T(t)] = \frac{L[T]}{s} = \frac{L[T_A](s) L[T_B](-s)}{s}.$$
Then the paper suggests taking the inverse of the above evaluated at $0$ to get $P(T_A < T_B)$.
Questions:
- Given the Laplace transform of CDF, which is $L[G_T(t)]$, I want to use the inverse Laplace to obtain $G_T(t)$ evaluated at $0$. But, by definition, inverse Laplace using algorithms in python are all one sided from $[0,\infty]$. My random variable $T$ is given by difference of two first passage times, $T = T_A - T_B$. Won't this be negative?
- In the paper, it says they are shifting the random variable $X$ under study by a constant $c$ such that $P(X + c > 0)$ is approximately $1$. Then inverting the corresponding one sided Laplace transform. How would I do that in this context here?