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Vipul Naik
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Betting markets for unsolved problems?

I'm not sure if this is appropriate for Math Overflow. I was curious about whether any attempts have been made to set up betting markets for getting mathematicians to put wagers on what they think about the possible outcomes of various unsolved problems. I've heard that betting markets generally have a good track record of aggregating the views of people and pointing to reasonably correct results, as long as there's enough participation and people have something real at stake (see prediction market). Also, when asked to actually make bets, people usually tend to examine the claims more critically.

Although betting with real money is tricky, this can be circumvented using other "currencies" such as (to take a random example) Math Overflow points.

Vipul Naik
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  • 82