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fixed the proof
fedja
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Fixed now. I spent some time looking for some clever trick but the most unimaginative way turned out to be the best. So, as I said before, the straightforward Taylor series expansion does it in no time.

Assume that $a>b$. Put $t=a-b=1-2b$.

Step 1: $$ \begin{aligned} a^{2b}&=(1-b)^{1-t}=1-b(1-t)-t(1-t)\left[\frac{1}2b^2+\frac{1+t}{3!}b^3+\frac{(1+t)(2+t)}{4!}b^4+\dots\right] \\ &\le 1-b(1-t)-t(1-t)\left[\frac{b^2}{1\cdot 2}+\frac{b^3}{2\cdot 3}+\frac{b^4}{3\cdot 4}+\dots\right] \\& =1-b(1-t)-t(1-t)\left[b\log\frac 1{a}+b-\log\frac {1}a\right] \\ &=1-b(1-t^2)+(1-b)t(1-t)\log\frac{1}a=1-b\left(1-t^2-t(1+t)\log\frac 1a\right) \end{aligned} $$ (in the last line we rewrote $(1-b)(1-t)=(1-b)2b=b(2-2b)=b(1+t)$)

Step 2. We need the inequality $e^{ku}\ge (1+u)(1+u+\dots+u^{k-1})+\frac k{k+1}u^{k+1}$ for $u\ge 0$. For $k=1$ it is just $e^u\ge 1+u+\frac{u^2}{2}$. For $k\ge 2$, the Taylor coefficients on the left are $\frac{k^j}{j!}$ and on the right $1,2,2,\dots,2,1$ (up to the order $k$) and then $\frac{k}{k+1}$. Now it remains to note that $\frac{k^0}{0!}=1$, $\frac{k^j}{j!}\ge \frac {k^j}{j^{j-1}}\ge k\ge 2$ for $1\le j\le k$, and $\frac{k^{k+1}}{(k+1)!}\ge \frac{k}{k+1}$.

Step 3: Let $u=\log\frac 1a$. We've seen in Step 1 that $a^{2b}\le 1-b(1-t\mu)$ where $\mu=u+(1+u)t$. In what follows, it'll be important that $\mu\le\frac 1a-1+\frac 1a t=1$ (we just used $\log\frac 1a\le \frac 1a-1$ here.

We have $b^{2a}=b(a-t)^t$. Thus, to finish, it'll suffice to show that $(a-t)^t\le 1-t\mu$. Taking negative logarithm of both sides and recalling that $\frac 1a=e^u$, we get the inequality $$ tu+t\log(1-te^u)^{-1}\ge \log(1-t\mu)^{-1} $$ to prove. Now, note that, according to Step 2, $$ \begin{aligned} &\frac{e^{uk}}k\ge \frac{(1+u)(1+u+\dots+u^{k-1})}k+\frac{u^{k+1}}{k+1} \ge\frac{(1+u)(\mu^{k-1}+\mu^{k-2}u+\dots+u^{k-1})}k+\frac{u^{k+1}}{k+1} \\ &=\frac{\mu^k-u^k}{kt}+\frac{u^{k+1}}{k+1} \end{aligned} $$ Multiplying by $t^{k+1}$ and adding up, we get $$ t\log(1-te^u)^{-1}\ge -ut+\log(1-t\mu)^{-1} $$ which is exactly what we need.

The end.

fedja
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