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Carlo Beenakker
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I think the inconsistency appears because the transpose $X^{\rm t}$ is missing in your answer. Let me try to work this out, along the lines of a similar calculation in the orthogonal (rather than unitary) group.

We need the fourth-order tensor $$\int_{{\rm U}(n)}(U^m)_{ij}(\bar{U}^m)_{kl}\,dU=a_{m}(n)\delta_{ij}\delta_{kl}+b_{m}(n)\delta_{ik}\delta_{jl}+c_{m}(n)\delta_{il}\delta_{jk}$$ so that the required integral takes the form $$\int_{{\rm U}(n)}U^m X(U^\dagger)^m\,dU=a_{m}(n)X+b_{m}(n)\mathbb{1}\,{\rm tr}\,X+c_{m}(n)X^{\rm t} $$ substitution $X=\mathbb{1}$ gives a first relation $$a_m(n)+nb_m(n)+c_m(n)=1$$ one more relation follows from application of theorem 2.1.b of Diaconis and Evans: $$n^2 a_m(n)+nb_m(n)+nc_m(n)=\int_{{\rm U}(n)}\,({\rm tr}\,U^m)({\rm tr}\,\bar{U}^m)\,dU={\rm min}\,(n,m)$$ I need a third relation $$na_m(n)+nb_m(n)+n^2 c_m(n)=\int_{{\rm U}(n)}\,{\rm tr}\,(U^m\bar{U}^{m})\,dU\equiv y_m(n)$$ This third integral remains to be evaluated, I will do that later today.

Carlo Beenakker
  • 188.1k
  • 18
  • 448
  • 651