Questions tagged [pr.probability]
Theory and applications of probability and stochastic processes: e.g. central limit theorems, large deviations, stochastic differential equations, models from statistical mechanics, queuing theory.
8,633
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Can we construct close discrete martingales if their terminal marginal laws are close?
As no answer or comment to Can we construct close martingales if their terminal marginal laws are close? we consider a simplified version (discrete-time) as below:
Let $M=(M_k)_{0\le k\le n}$ be a ...
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Piecewise Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process time integral
Let $X_t$ be a piecewise Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with infinitesimal variance $\sigma^2$ and (piecewise) infinitesimal mean $\theta_1$ for $x<c$ where $c$ is a constant and $\theta_2$ for $x\geq ...
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Maximize ratio of Chernoff divergence to Bhattacharya divergence
For probability distributions $P, Q$ with pdfs $p, q$, and a parameter $\alpha \in[0,1]$, define
$$C_\alpha(P, Q) = -\ln\left(\sum_x p(x)^\alpha q(x)^{1-\alpha}\right).$$
Then define $C(P, Q) = \max_\...
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Asymptotic variance for averages of trajectory functionals of Markov chain
I am looking for references on theory for convergence rates of ergodic averages of a Markov chain in the more general setting where the functional is over multiple states or even a whole trajectory, ...
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1
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Properties of the relatively bounded probability distributions on the simplex over the natural numbers
Setup :
Let $S$ be the simplex over $\mathbb N$, i.e. the set of probability distribution over $\mathbb N$. Let $p\in S$ be such that $0 < p_n$ for all $n\in \mathbb N$. Let $H$ be the Hilbert ...
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Number of arrangements that contain at least 1 path from top to bottom of 2D matrix
I have a $n\times n$ matrix of objects. $n'$ objects are black, and the rest $n^2-n'$ are white.
With that information, I can easily calculate the total number of black element arrangements that exist ...
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Known relations between mutual information and covering number?
This is a question about statistical learning theory. Consider a hypothesis class $\mathcal{F}$, parameterized by real vectors $w \in \mathbb{R}^p$. Suppose I have a data distribution $D \sim \mu$ and ...
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Monotone Characteristic Function
Let $X$ be a continuous, symmetric random variable such that its characteristic function $\phi_X$ is real, symmetric and with $\lim_{t\to\infty}\phi_X(t)=0$.
What other properties must $X$ have in ...
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Is a martingale conditioned to be large a submartingale?
Let $X$ be a continuous time martingale such that $X_\infty := \lim_{t \to \infty} X_t$ exists almost surely. Let $x \in \mathbb R$ be such that $\mathbb P(X_\infty \geq x) > 0$, and define the ...
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Conditioned on the expectation and covariance, is the total variation distance maximal for Gaussian distributions?
I want to find two distributions $p_1, p_2$, whose total variation distance is the largest between all pairs of distributions whose expectations $\mu_1, \mu_2\in \mathbb{R}^d$ and covariances $\...
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$f \in L^2(X\times Y,\mu \times K)$ for Kernel $K$, is the map $X \ni x \mapsto (f(x,\cdot),x) \in \bigsqcup_{x \in X}L^2(Y,\Sigma_Y,K_x)$ measurable?
Let $(X,\Sigma_X)$ and $(Y,\Sigma_Y)$ be two measurable spaces, let $\mu$ be a measure on $(X,\Sigma_X)$, and let $(K_x)_{x \in X}$ be a transition kernel from $(X,\Sigma_X)$ to $(Y,\Sigma_Y)$, that ...
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How to calculate math expectation of recurrent function? [closed]
I try to figure martingale strategy mathematically.
Let us say we start with bet $x$ and designate obtained value as $f(x)$
I come up with the following equation
$$
\mathbb{E}f(x) = \frac{18}{37} x + \...
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Why do we define independence for zero-probability events? [closed]
I am learning about probability and the definition of pairwise independence is given as $P(AB) = P(A)P(B)$. My textbook motivates this definition as one to capture the intuition where the knowledge of ...
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Is the integer factorization into prime numbers normally distributed?
Edit:
Sorry, for the inconvenience: I have edited the question, since there was a misconception in my thinking.
Let $P_1(n) := 1$ if $n=1$ and $\max_{q\mid n, \text{ } q\text{ prime}} q$ otherwise, ...
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Does $L^1$ boundedness and convergence in probability imply convergence in probability of the Cesaro sums?
Let $X_n$ be a sequence of random variables with uniformly bounded $L^1$ norm. Suppose $X_n$ converges in probability to $X \in L^1$.
Is it true that the Cesaro sums $Y_n := \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i = 1}^n ...
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Urn model and recursion
We have an urn with $n$ white balls. In each iteration we pick a ball at random. If it's white, we paint it red and return it to the urn. If it's already red, we discard it. We lose the game if (after ...
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Where does the definition of ($\infty$-)groupoid cardinality come from?
The cardinality of a finite set $X$ is the number of its elements. Once you know that, you would define the groupoid cardinality of a $\infty$-groupoid $X$ as the quantity
$$\lvert X\rvert := \sum_{[x]...
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Can we construct close martingales if their terminal marginal laws are close?
Let $M=(M_t)_{0\le t\le 1}$ be a real-valued continuous martingale. Let $\mu := {\rm Law}(M_1)$ and $\varepsilon \in (0,1)$. For any $\nu$ satisfying $W_2(\mu,\nu)\le \varepsilon$, can we construct ...
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Truncated fixed point and regularity structures
This question arose via the helpful comments on this earlier question.
In Hairer's theory of regularity structures, fixed point problems are first solved in certain spaces $D^\gamma$ which consist of ...
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2
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633
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On martingale convergence
Let $(X_t)_{t\ge0}$ be a martingale with continuous paths. It was previously shown here and here that then it is impossible that $X_t\to\infty$ almost surely as $t\to\infty$.
Is it possible that there ...
4
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Examples of Borel probability measures on the Schwartz function space?
Let $\mathcal{S}(\mathbb{R}^d)$ be the Frechet space of Schwartz functions on $\mathbb{R}^n$. Its dual space $\mathcal{S}'(\mathbb{R}^d)$ is the space of tempered distributions.
Minlos Theorem as ...
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2
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Another curious martingale
This is a natural follow up question to A curious martingale.
Does there exist an almost surely continuous martingale that converges in probability to $+\infty$?
Note: We say a process $X_t$ converges ...
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1
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56
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Correlation for a Sum of random vectors from the sphere multiplied by matrices
Let $A_1,\dots,A_n\in \mathbb{R}^{d\times d}$ be some matrices. Suppose we sample $x_1,\dots,x_n,y\sim \mathcal{U}(\mathbb{S}^{d-1})$, where $\mathcal{U}(\mathbb{S}^{d-1})$ is the uniform distribution ...
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1
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Will the KL divergence between two distributions decrease after passing the fixed channel?
Suppose there are two continuous distributions whose pdfs are $p_1$ and $p_2$, defined on a common support $\mathcal{X}$. Suppose that there is a conditional pdf (the channel) $M:\mathcal{X}\times \...
3
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119
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An analogue of Kolmogorov's law of the iterated logarithm
Let $X_1,\dots,X_n$ be independent random variables, each with mean zero and finite variance. Let $S_n = \sum\limits_{k=1}^n X_k$ and $s_n^2=ES_n^2$. We say the sequence obey the law of iterated ...
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A curious martingale
Does there exist an almost surely continuous martingale $X$ with $X_t \to +\infty$ almost surely?
Remark: Note that such a martingale exists in discrete time, or equivalently in continuous time if the ...
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Continuity of conditional expectation
Let $X$ be a compact metric space, $\mu$ a Borel probability measure on $X$ and $f: X \to \mathbb{R}$ a continuous function. Consider an increasing sequence of $\sigma$-algebras $A_n$ so that for all $...
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A representation formula for the expected value of a stochastic process at a random time
Let $X$ be a continuous stochastic process, and $\tau$ an almost surely positive random variable, not necessarily a stopping time with respect to the natural filtration $\mathcal F_t$ of $X$.
We write ...
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Existence and uniqueness of a posterior distribution
I am wondering about the existence and uniqueness of a posterior distribution.
While Bayes' theorem gives the form of the posterior, perhaps there are pathological cases (over some weird probability ...
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1
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Does an uncountable convex combination of elements of a set lie in the convex hull of the set in finite dimension?
Suppose that $\mathcal{F}$ is a finite-dimensional vector space and that $C\subseteq\mathcal{F}$ is a convex subset of $\mathcal{F}$.
Is it true that an uncountable convex-combination of elements of $...
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Tight Chernoff Concentration for Bernoulli(p) RV
I remember seeing a research paper on tight concentration of Bernoulli(p) random variable in terms of $p$.
What I mean is that they used a stronger upper bound for the MGF than $E[e^{s(X-p)
}]\leq e^{...
27
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How to show a function converges to 1
Consider the following recurrence relation in two variables:
$$f(a, b) = \frac{a}{a+b} f(a-1,b)+ \frac{b}{a+b}f(a+1,b-1) $$
for positive integers $a$ and $b$,
with the boundary conditions $f(0,b)=0$ ...
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Probability that a 1-D zero mean random walk remains at each step inside a square root boundary
Let $W_n = \sum_{i = 1}^{n}X_i$ be a random walk on $\mathbb{R}$, where the increments $X_i$ are i.i.d., symmetric around the origin ($X\sim -X$), such that $-1\leq |X(\omega)| \leq 1$ $\forall\omega\...
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Paper request : “A random integral and Orlicz spaces” from K. Urbanick
I tried all my methods to find the paper :
“K. Urbanik and WA Woyczynski, A random integral and Orlicz spaces, Bulletin de l'Académie Polonaise des Sciences, Série des sciences mathématiques, ...
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Definition of weak conditional convergence of random variables
I am looking for a definition of conditional convergence. Suppose that $X_1, X_2, \dots, X_n$ are $\mathbb R$-valued random variables with finite second moments, and $W_1, W_2, \dots, W_n$ are iid $\...
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1
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Expected norm of a product of Gaussian matrices
Suppose $C_n$ is a product of $n$ $d\times d$ matrices with IID entries coming from standard normal. The following appears to be true. Is there an elementary proof?
$$E[\|C_n\|_F^2]=d^{n+1}$$
This ...
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417
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Probabilty measures that are both discrete and continuous
Consider a measure space $\left(S,\Sigma\right)$ where each state $s\in S$ can be expressed as $s=\left(x,c\right)$, where $x\in\mathbb R$ and $c\in\mathbb N$. E.g., suppose $s$ denotes the state of a ...
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On Impossible events
Let's consider a continuous random variable $X$ distributed according to a PDF $p(x):\mathbb{R}\mapsto \mathbb{R}_{\geq 0}$.
Is there a meaningful sense in which one could say that for any $x_0:p(x_0)=...
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1
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Why do distributional isomorphisms preserve joint distribution?
Let $(\Omega,\mathcal{A},\mu)$ and $(\Omega',\mathcal{A}',\mu')$ be probability spaces and
$$f_1,\ldots,f_n:\Omega\to\mathbb R,\; f_1',\cdots, f_n':\Omega'\to\mathbb{R}$$
be integrable random ...
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Question about the proof of Propp-Wilson algorithm in Olle Häggström's book
Update: Oops! This is a stupid question and should be closed. The definition of the probability space that contains events $A_i$ requires using a single random stream.
I have difficulties ...
2
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1
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Thinning of (mixed) binomial point process
Let $N= \sum_{i=1}^M \delta_{X_i}$ be a mixed Binomial process over $(\mathbb X, \mathcal X)$. I.e., $M$ is a $\mathbb Z_+$ valued random variable with probability mass function $q_M(m)$, $m=0, 1, \...
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1
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Kolmogorov inequality for Bernoulli random variables
This question is also asked on math stackexchange. The question is about one inequality which shows in Kolmogorov's paper (inequality (3.1)) but is not proved. The inequality says that, if we assume $...
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What do $\gamma$-radonifying operators radonify?
In the second volume of their Analysis in Banach Spaces, Hytönen et al. introduce the notion of $\gamma$-radonifying operator more or less as follow.
Let $(\gamma_j)_{j\in\mathbf N}$ be a sequence of ...
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Random walk with same directions and different step sizes
Let $X\sim e^{iU}$, where $U$ is uniformly distributed on $(0, 2\pi]$. Define $\chi_1, \cdots, \chi_t$ as i.i.d. random variables with the same distribution as $X$.
Consider the following two random ...
7
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2
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317
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Matrices over $\mathbb{F}_p$ that have nonzero determinant under any element permutation
$\DeclareMathOperator\GL{GL}$A few months ago, the following discussion took place on AoPS, concerning matrices that have nonzero determinant under any permutation of their entries: https://...
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0
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50
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Sum of Skellam-distributed number of random variables
Suppose $X_i$ are i.i.d, and $N \sim \text{Skellam}(\mu_1$, $\mu_2$). Is it possible to find a closed form for the p.d.f of $S_N$, defined by $S_N = X_1 + \cdots X_N$ when $N \ge 0$, and $S_{-N} = -...
0
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1
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73
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Weak convergence to product measure form conditional convergence of marginals
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$\newcommand\BL{\operatorname{BL}}$
$\newcommand\reals{\mathbb R}$
$\newcommand\eps{\varepsilon}$
$\newcommand\pr{\mathbb P}$
$\newcommand\ex{\mathbb E}$
$\newcommand\...
2
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0
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66
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Construct a Bregman divergence from Wasserstein distance
I was wondering whether one has studied the Bregman divergence arising from a squared Wasserstein distance.
More precisely, let $\Omega\subset \mathbb{R}^d$ be a compact set and $c\in \Omega\times \...
2
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1
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143
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Some identities from graph theory and probability
The other day I attended a seminar about probability. I took some notes and I am now revising it and trying to understand some steps that were omitted by the lecturer. To formulate my question, ...
3
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0
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121
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Stochastic braids
I am definitely not a probability guy, but I'd like to have a heuristic answer to the following question: do $n$ independently moving points in an open, connected, bounded region $R$ tend to "...