All Questions
Tagged with pr.probability martingales
210 questions
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Characterisation of a family of continuous martingales
I look for a full characterisation of the continuous martingales $X=(X_t)_{0\leq t\leq T}$ (defined on some filtered probability space as nice as possible) such that
$$X_0=0\quad \mbox{ and } \quad\...
- 63.9k
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31
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Looking for a citation for this simple generalization of the Markov bound to non-negative super-martingales
Does anybody know a reference for the following theorem?
Theorem 1. Let $(X_t)_{t=0}^\infty$ be a non-negative supermartingale.
Then, for any constant $c > 0$, the event $(\exists
> t)\, X_t \...
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1
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66
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Expectation bounds on supremum of family of martingales
Suppose I fix a filtered probability space $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \mathbb{F}, P)$ and on it a Brownian motion $B$. Let $\tau_\alpha$ denote a set of stopping times which satisfies $\sup_\alpha \tau_\...
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1
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57
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Lower bounding an alternating series with signs from a martingale difference sequence
Let $\epsilon_n \in \{-1, 1\}$ be a martingale difference sequence, in the sense that
$$M_n := \sum_{i = 0}^n \epsilon_i$$
is a martingale.
We assume $\epsilon_0 = \pm 1$ with probability $\frac{1}{2}$...
- 128k
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1
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660
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On the martingale betting scheme
For a fixed probability $0 < p < 1$, let $X^p$ be the martingale that goes up by $1$ with probability $p$, and goes down by $\frac{p}{q}$ with probability $q := 1-p$.
Write $X$ for the ...
- 128k
3
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1
answer
181
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A nice terminal inequality for martingales
Let $X_t$ be a continuous time martingale taking with $\sup_t \mathbb E[X_t^-] < \infty$, and $X_0 = 0$ almost surely. Assume further that $X_1$ admits a probability density function.
Is it true ...
- 23.2k
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1
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60
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Reverse Doob’s maximal inequality for bounded martingales
Consider the set of discrete or continuous time $L^\infty$-bounded martingales $X$ with $X_0 = 0$ almost surely. Here $L^\infty$-bounded means $\|X\|_{\infty} := \sup_t \mathbb \|X_t\|_{L^\infty(\...
- 23.2k
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1
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Sharpening Doob’s upcrossing inequality for Brownian motion
Note: This question is heavily related to a series of posts ([1], [2]) by user GJC20.
Provided a martingale $X$ in continuous-time, Doob's upcrosssing inequality states:
If $U(a,b)$ denotes the number ...
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2
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Do continuous martingales satisfy this nice terminal inequality?
Let $X$ be a continuous, non negative martingale on $[0, 1]$ with $X_0 = x_0$ a.s. for some $x_0 \in \mathbb R$. Assume further that $X_1$ admits a probability density function. Is it true that the ...
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Assumptions Wald's second equation?
Let $(X_n)_{n\in \mathbb{N}}$ be an i.i.d. sequence of random variables and $N$ an $\mathbb{N}_0$ valued random variable. Let $X_1 \in \mathcal{L}^2$ and $N \in \mathcal{L}^1$. Let $S_n := \sum_{i=1}^...
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246
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Can we construct close martingales if their terminal marginal laws are close?
Let $M=(M_t)_{0\le t\le 1}$ be a real-valued continuous martingale. Let $\mu := {\rm Law}(M_1)$ and $\varepsilon \in (0,1)$. For any $\nu$ satisfying $W_2(\mu,\nu)\le \varepsilon$, can we construct ...
CommunityBot
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1
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Sum of $X_k$ with $\mathbb{P}(X_k=\pm 1) = 1/2\pm 1/(2\sqrt{k})$
Let $\{X_k\}$ be a sequence of mutually independent random variables with
\begin{align}
\mathbb{P}(X_k = 1) & = \frac{1}{2} + \frac{1}{2\sqrt{k}},
\\
\mathbb{P}(X_k = -1) & = \frac{1}{2} - \...
- 269
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0
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101
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Divergent/Unbounded random walks techniques
I want to prove the following biased random walk will be diverge. Suppose I have a random walk $S_n = X_1 + ... + X_n$, but $X_1,...,X_n$ are dependent variables. $X_1 \sim$ Bernoulli($\sigma(\theta_1)...
- 31
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3
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448
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All stationary martingales are constant?
Suppose $(X_{n})_{n\geq{1}}$ is a stationary process that is a martingale with respect to some filtration. Suppose also that $\mathbb{E}X_{0}^{2}<\infty$ so that $\mathbb{E}X_{n}^{2}<\infty$ for ...
1
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1
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464
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A Lévy process is a semimartingale proof
I have to prove that a Lévy process is a semimartingale.
In general we say that $X$ is a semimartingale if it is an adapted process such that, for each
$t ≥ 0$,
$$X (t) = X (0) + M(t) + C(t)$$
where $...
CommunityBot
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2
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0
answers
61
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Characterisation of Bessel process
Let $\delta \in (0, 2)$; $(X_t)_{t \ge 0}$ a nonnegative continuous Markov process. Suppose that
For each $T \ge 0$, if we write $\tau \overset{\mathrm{def}}= \inf\{t \ge T : X_t = 0\}$, then $(X_{T +...
- 177
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80
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Seeking strong bounds on KL-divergence and martingales for a hypothesis-testing inequality
Let's say we have a finite set $\mathcal{O}$ of observations, and let $\mathcal{C}(\Delta\mathcal{O})$ denote the space of closed convex sets of probability distributions.
We have two hypotheses which ...
- 353
1
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1
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129
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A martingale puzzle about sum of expected squared bounds
I'm trying to get one of those "with $1-\delta$ probability, the following holds"-style bounds, and the following martingale problem looks solvable by some Freedman or Bernstein-style bound, ...
- 63.9k
3
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1
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When does a local supermartingale become a proper supermartingale?
This is a cross-post of my question on MSE.
Abstract: When a local supermartingale is bounded from below, is it a proper supermartingale?
Question: In remark 4.2 (p.16) of the lecture notes by Martin ...
- 235
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Extension of the Azuma-Hoeffding inequality (when the differences are bounded with large probability)
Let $(X_i)$ be a super-martingale and suppose their differences are bounded ''with high probability'', that is
$$\mathbb{P}(\exists\,i=1,\dots,n\text{ s.t. }|X_i-X_{i-1}|>c_i) \,\leq\, \epsilon$$
...
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80
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Does this filtration have a name?
In the context of Ethier&Kurtz Markov Processes: Characterization and Convergence (Chapter 4, equation (3.2)) as well as the two papers Martingale problems for conditional distributions of Markov ...
CommunityBot
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1
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The only continuous martingales with stationary increments are Brownian motions
I know that the above statement is true, but I can't demonstrate it.
It's a pretty powerful theorem, here is its mathematical formulation:
Theorem: The only continuous martingales with stationary ...
- 1,446
3
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1
answer
554
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A concentration inequality derived from Freedman’s inequality
Freedman’s inequality is a well-known concentration inequality of martingale difference sequence:
Let $(Z_t)_{t \leq T}$ be a real-valued martingale difference sequence adapted to filtration $\...
- 1,043
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0
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90
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Martingale defined by an integral
Consider a probability space $(\Omega,\mathcal{F},P).$ Let $f \in C^{\infty}_{c}(\mathbb{R}^d,\mathbb{R}),p \geq 2.$ $(X_r^{y})_{(r,y) \in \mathbb{R}_+ \times \mathbb{R}^d}$ is a stochastic process ...
CommunityBot
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1
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168
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Weak convergence of random measures generated by non-negative martingales?
If I have a sequence of non-negative continuous martingales $(M_n(x))_{n\ge 1}$ on $x\in[0,1]$, i.e. for each fixed $n$, $M_n:[0,1]\to[0,\infty)$ is a continuous process, and for each fixed $x\in[0,1]$...
- 3,808
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2
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642
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Examples of a continuous martingale with $E[\sup\limits_{0\leq s\leq t} |M_s|]=\infty$?
A local martingale is a martingale iff it is in the class DL.
The condition: for every $t\in[0,\infty)$
$$E[\sup\limits_{0\leq s\leq t} |M_s|]<\infty\tag1$$
guarantees a local martingale $M$ is ...
- 179
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1
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4k
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Quadratic variation and predictable quadratic variation for martingales
Let $(M_{t})_{0\le t\le 1}$ be a continuous martingale with respect to the filtration $(\mathcal{F}_{t})_{0\le t\le 1}$. Assume that $E M_1^2<\infty$.
Fix $N$ and consider now a discrete version ...
- 179
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5
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2k
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Martingales and Betting Strategies
Does anyone know of a good introduction to the theory of martingales and betting strategies from the point of view of statistics and/or probability theory? I'm looking for something basic, with lots ...
1
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0
answers
125
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Can we construct close discrete martingales if their terminal marginal laws are close?
As no answer or comment to Can we construct close martingales if their terminal marginal laws are close? we consider a simplified version (discrete-time) as below:
Let $M=(M_k)_{0\le k\le n}$ be a ...
- 6,215
6
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1
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396
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Is a martingale conditioned to be large a submartingale?
Let $X$ be a continuous time martingale such that $X_\infty := \lim_{t \to \infty} X_t$ exists almost surely. Let $x \in \mathbb R$ be such that $\mathbb P(X_\infty \geq x) > 0$, and define the ...
- 29.8k
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On martingale convergence
Let $(X_t)_{t\ge0}$ be a martingale with continuous paths. It was previously shown here and here that then it is impossible that $X_t\to\infty$ almost surely as $t\to\infty$.
Is it possible that there ...
- 10.3k
4
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2
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373
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Another curious martingale
This is a natural follow up question to A curious martingale.
Does there exist an almost surely continuous martingale that converges in probability to $+\infty$?
Note: We say a process $X_t$ converges ...
- 1,172
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2
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A curious martingale
Does there exist an almost surely continuous martingale $X$ with $X_t \to +\infty$ almost surely?
Remark: Note that such a martingale exists in discrete time, or equivalently in continuous time if the ...
- 29.8k
11
votes
2
answers
2k
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De Finetti's theorem, the pointwise ergodic theorem, and reverse martingales
De Finetti's theorem says that an exchangeable sequence of random variables $X_i$ is a mixture of i.i.d. random variables. In other words, if $\mu$ is a measure on $\mathbb{R}^\infty$ that is ...
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1
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594
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Martingales and intersection of random walks
Let $G=(V,E)$ be a graph with $n$ vertices. Consider a pair of independent simple random walks $(X,Y)$ on the graph, each of length $L$ starting from a node $v \in V$. We denote a length-$L$ random ...
CommunityBot
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Conditions for absorption
Let $X$ be a Markov chain with countable state space $S$ and transition kernel $P$, and let $h \colon S \to [0,1]$ be a sub-harmonic or super-harmonic function. Assume that for all $\varepsilon >0$ ...
- 63.9k
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1
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284
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Martingale derivation by direct calculation
I'm reading the proof of a theorem and stumbled across the following derivation which I cannot replicate myself.
Let $W(t)$ be a $Q$-martingale and be given by $W(t) = B(t) + \mu t$ with $B(t)$ a ...
CommunityBot
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0
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147
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Request for article in Rev. Roumaine Math. Pures Appl. (1981)
I am looking for the following article:
Al-Hussaini, A. N. A projective limit view of $L_1$-bounded martingales.
Rev. Roumaine Math. Pures Appl.26 (1981), no.1, 51–54, but I can't find it anywhere.
Do ...
- 63.9k
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121
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Martingale regularization
Consider a submartingale $X,$ then for almost every $\omega \in \Omega,$ for every $v \in \mathbb{R},\lim_{u \in \mathbb{{Q},u \uparrow v}}X_u(\omega)$ exist in $\mathbb{R}.$
I was wondering if there ...
- 573
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1
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Integral of $M^\text{*} - M$ with respect to $M^\text{*}$ is zero for $M^\text{*}$ the running maximum of $M$ a continuous local martingale
Given $M$ a continuous local martingale, and $M^\text{*} = \sup_{0 \leq s \leq t} M_s$ its running maximum, we consider the finite variation integral
$$
I_T:= \int_0^T (M^\text{*}_s - M_s) \, \text{d}...
- 3,808
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282
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Identify two continuous martingales in law as time-changed Brownian motions
Let $W$ be a Brownian motion and $\alpha$ be a progressively measurable process taking values in $\mathbb R_+$. Set $\beta_t:=\max(\alpha_t, 1)$ for all $t\ge 0$. Define respectively $X$, $Y$ by
$$X_t:...
- 5,474
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is there a discrete version of Dambis Dubins Schwarz Theorem
Theorem (Dambis, Dubins-Schwarz). If $M$ is a $\left(\mathscr{F}_t, P\right)$-continuous martingale vanishing at 0 and such that $\langle M, M\rangle_{\infty}=\infty$ and if we set
$$
T_t=\inf \left\{...
- 121
3
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1
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352
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First time random sum exceeds value
Suppose $X_n$ $n = 1, 2, \ldots$ are i.i.d random variables with $\mu := \mathbb{E}[X_n]$ > 0. (although they are not necessarily non-negative). Then if $S_n = \sum_{k=1}^n X_k$ and $\tau_a$ = $\...
- 128k
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1
answer
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Convergence of SDEs
Suppose that $\{a_n(x)\}_{n \in \mathbb{N}}$ is a sequence of real-valued Lipschitz functions with domain $\mathbb{R}^d$, which converges $m$-a.e. to a Lipschitz function $a$. Suppose that $b$ is a ...
- 5,474
1
vote
0
answers
87
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Normal approximation of martingale difference
Apologies in advance if the question is not precise (or silly), I am not a probabilist by profession. I have the following question:
Let $(X_n)_{n \geq 1}$ be a martingale difference sequence. Assume ...
- 2,207
8
votes
1
answer
533
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Concentration bounds for martingales with adaptive Gaussian steps
Consider the following martingale: $X_1 \sim \mathcal{N}(0, 1)$, and for any $n > 1$, $X_n \sim \mathcal{N}(X_{n-1}, X_{n-1}^2)$ (notice, this is a conditional distribution given $X_{n-1}$).
I am ...
2
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1
answer
2k
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Alternate proof of Levy’s characterisation of Brownian motion
Levy’s characterisation theorem for Brownian motion states that for a local martingale $X$ with $X_0 = 0$, $X$ is a Brownian motion if and only if it has quadratic variation $\langle X, X \rangle_t = ...
- 8,992
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1
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350
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Can an a.s. non constant continuous martingale be differentiable with nonzero probability?
Let $M$ be a continuous martingale such that almost surely, the sample paths of $M$ are not constant.
Question: Is it true that $M$ is almost surely not differentiable?
- 3,808
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0
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182
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Hardy's inequality proof using Doob's inequalities
Consider a probability space $([0,1],\mathcal{B}([0,1],\lambda),p>1$ and $f \in L^p(]0,\infty[).$
We want to prove Hardy's inequality using martingale theory and Doob's maximal inequalities.
Let $\...
- 573
2
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1
answer
198
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Enlargement of filtration
Let $M_t$ be a continuous time real valued martingale, and $\mathcal F_t$ its natural filtration.
Suppose that $\mathcal F_t \setminus \mathcal F_s$ is nonempty for all $t > s$.
Let $\mathcal G$ be ...
- 3,808