Let $A$ be an $N\times N$ Hermitian matrix. For $p+q$ even, consider the following inequality: $$\frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^N (A^p)_{ii} (A^q)_{ii} \geq \Big(\frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^N (A^p)_{ii} \Big) \Big(\frac{1}{N}\sum_{i=1}^N (A^q)_{ii} \Big) = \frac{1}{N^2} \mathrm{tr}(A^p) \mathrm{tr}(A^q).$$ A probabilistic interpretation of this inequality is that the diagonal elements of $A^p$ are positively correlated with the diagonal elements of $A^q$. Therefore, it is clearly true in the case of $p=q$.
I checked it numerically on random Hermitian matrices (both uniform eigenvalues and uniform entries) with $p=1$ and $q=3$, and found this inequality mostly holds, but not always. The ratio of counterexamples seems to decay exponentially with $N$: 1.9%, 0.7%, 0.24%, 0.09%, 0.003%, 0.001% for $N=3$ to $8$. The ratio of counterexamples also decays fast when $p$ and $q$ both get large.
My questions are: is there a proof why this inequality is almost true? What are the necessary and sufficient conditions for it to hold?