This question is a twist on a question I asked here Random pseudo-walk of Poisson variables, but with randomly 'disappearing' objects. I do not know how to generalize the (satisfactory) answer given there.
Suppose there is a pool that can contain any non-negative number of objects. At time π‘ it contains $n_t$ objects. Time is discrete.
Before time π‘+1 three things happen, in this order:
- Unless the pool is empty, one object is removed from it.
- Each of the remaining $n_t-1$ objects independently disappears from the pool, with probability $\delta$. So we remain with $m_t \sim Bin(n_t-1, 1 - \delta)$ objects.
- A number of objects πβΌPoisson(π) are added to the pool, where 0<π<1. π is drawn from a Poisson distribution with expectation π, independently of previous draws. So $π_{π‘+1}=m_π‘+πβ1$, unless $π_π‘=0$, in which case $π_{π‘+1}=π$.
Let $π_0=0$. What is the distribution of $π_π$, for any large π? Let's call it $π_\infty$. What is $π_\infty$'s expectation, as a function of π?
With $\lambda>1$, does $π_\infty$ necessarily diverge to +β, as it did without disappearances?
This is my motivation: Objects are bidders in a recurring auction, with values i.i.d. drawn from a distribution $F(x)$, and whose values exceed some $y > 0$. The removed object is an auction winner, who leaves. In this question, the bidders discount their values each round, so with some probability fall below $y$.